The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Golden State Warriors v Orlando Magic

Kickoff: 2026-11-08 01:43 UTC

Final: Golden State Warriors 126–119 Orlando Magic

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

68 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Golden State Warriors (Local)

Prediction 71.85%1.39fair odd
EV -0.845%
Edge -0.613%
Kelly -2.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.49%71.64%71.90%73.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.331.331.3880.00%75.06%75.19%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Orlando Magic (Visit)

Prediction 28.15%3.55fair odd
EV +2.74%
Edge +0.752%
Kelly +1.04%
Growth +0.028%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.41%28.36%28.10%31.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.313.303.6536.36%30.24%30.30%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Golden State Warriors (Local): 71.85%; Orlando Magic (Visit): 28.15%. For Orlando Magic (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.55. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.74%.

Sportsbook Odds (68 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetUS🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.59%EV -5.88%E -4.48%K -18.95%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.41%EV +2.74%E +0.752%K +1.04%G +0.028%3.7%2026-11-08 00:05
Pinnacle🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 73.02%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.98%EV +1.34%E +0.371%K +0.514%G +0.007%3.0%2026-11-08 01:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -5.88%E -4.48%K -18.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV +1.34%E +0.371%K +0.514%G +0.007%4.1%2026-11-08 00:50
Fliff🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -6.59%E -5.07%K -21.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV +1.34%E +0.371%K +0.514%G +0.007%4.7%2026-11-08 01:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.80%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.20%EV +0.210%E +0.059%K +0.082%G +0.000%3.3%2026-11-08 00:05
SportsBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.90%EV -5.16%E -3.91%K -16.11%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.10%EV -0.071%E -0.020%K -0.028%G +0.000%3.9%2026-11-08 00:05
Bovada🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.90%EV -5.16%E -3.91%K -16.11%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.10%EV -0.071%E -0.020%K -0.028%G +0.000%3.9%2026-11-08 00:05
BetAnything🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.05%EV -5.88%E -4.48%K -18.95%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.95%EV -0.071%E -0.020%K -0.028%G +0.000%4.5%2026-11-08 00:05
1xBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.58%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.42%EV -0.916%E -0.260%K -0.363%G +0.000%3.6%2026-11-08 00:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.73%EV -5.16%E -3.91%K -16.11%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.27%EV -0.916%E -0.260%K -0.363%G +0.000%4.2%2026-11-08 00:05
Coolbet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV -1.48%E -0.423%K -0.592%G +0.000%3.8%2026-11-08 00:19
theScore Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV -1.48%E -0.423%K -0.592%G +0.000%3.8%2026-11-08 00:15
Everygame🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV -1.48%E -0.423%K -0.592%G +0.000%3.8%2026-11-08 01:30
FanDuel🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -5.16%E -3.91%K -16.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -1.48%E -0.423%K -0.592%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-08 00:05
DraftKings🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -5.16%E -3.91%K -16.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -1.48%E -0.423%K -0.592%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-08 00:10
GTbets🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -5.16%E -3.91%K -16.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -1.48%E -0.423%K -0.592%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-08 00:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -5.88%E -4.48%K -18.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -1.48%E -0.423%K -0.592%G +0.000%4.9%2026-11-08 00:05
Fanatics🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -5.88%E -4.48%K -18.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -1.48%E -0.423%K -0.592%G +0.000%4.9%2026-11-08 01:30
Bet Victor🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 72.03%EV -3.72%E -2.78%K -10.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.97%EV -2.89%E -0.837%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.6%2026-11-08 01:19
betano_uk🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 72.03%EV -3.72%E -2.78%K -10.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.97%EV -2.89%E -0.837%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.6%2026-11-08 01:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 72.03%EV -3.72%E -2.78%K -10.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.97%EV -2.89%E -0.837%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.6%2026-11-08 01:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -2.89%E -0.837%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.2%2026-11-08 00:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -3.72%E -2.78%K -10.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -4.29%E -1.26%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.0%2026-11-08 01:30
TAB🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -3.72%E -2.78%K -10.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -4.29%E -1.26%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.0%2026-11-08 00:10
BetMGM🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -4.29%E -1.26%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.6%2026-11-08 00:05
Bet Right🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.16%E -3.91%K -16.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -4.29%E -1.26%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-08 00:15
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.59%E -5.07%K -21.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -4.29%E -1.26%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-08 00:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.59%E -5.07%K -21.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -4.29%E -1.26%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-08 00:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.59%E -5.07%K -21.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -4.29%E -1.26%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-08 00:00
ReBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.49%EV -3.72%E -2.78%K -10.94%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.51%EV -5.42%E -1.61%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.4%2026-11-08 01:25
picklebet_au🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.28%EV -3.00%E -2.22%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.72%EV -5.70%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.9%2026-11-08 01:30
Caesars🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%EV -3.72%E -2.78%K -10.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV -5.70%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.5%2026-11-08 01:35
MyBookie.ag🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.83%EV -5.88%E -4.48%K -18.95%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.17%EV -5.98%E -1.79%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-08 01:28
Dabble (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -3.00%E -2.22%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -7.11%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%4.4%2026-11-08 01:20
Neds🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -3.00%E -2.22%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -7.11%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%4.4%2026-11-08 00:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -3.00%E -2.22%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -7.11%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%4.4%2026-11-08 00:05
Codere (IT)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -3.72%E -2.78%K -10.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -7.11%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%4.9%2026-11-08 00:10
888sport🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -7.11%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-08 00:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -7.11%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-08 00:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -7.11%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-08 00:05
William Hill🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -7.11%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-08 00:05
PlayUp🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -7.11%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-08 00:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -7.11%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-08 00:05
Coral🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -7.11%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-08 00:05
betfred_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -8.52%E -2.62%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-08 00:05
BoyleSports🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -8.52%E -2.62%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-08 00:34
Sky Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -8.52%E -2.62%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-08 01:25
NordicBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -5.16%E -3.91%K -16.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -9.92%E -3.10%K -4.51%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-08 01:20
Betsson🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -5.16%E -3.91%K -16.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -9.92%E -3.10%K -4.51%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-08 01:20
NetBet (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.91%EV -10.19%E -8.15%K -40.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -9.92%E -3.10%K -4.51%G +0.000%11.3%2026-11-08 00:10
LeoVegas🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.79%EV -6.59%E -5.07%K -21.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -11.33%E -3.60%K -5.27%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-08 01:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.25%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.75%EV -11.61%E -3.70%K -5.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-08 01:35
BetRivers🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -0.845%E -0.613%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -14.15%E -4.64%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-08 01:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -0.845%E -0.613%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -14.15%E -4.64%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-08 01:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -0.845%E -0.613%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -14.15%E -4.64%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-08 01:25
TABtouch🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -0.845%E -0.613%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -14.15%E -4.64%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-08 01:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -0.845%E -0.613%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -14.15%E -4.64%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-08 01:25
Unibet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -0.845%E -0.613%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -14.15%E -4.64%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-08 01:25
betPARX🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -0.845%E -0.613%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -14.15%E -4.64%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-08 01:25
Bally Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -0.845%E -0.613%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -14.15%E -4.64%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-08 01:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -0.845%E -0.613%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -14.15%E -4.64%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-08 01:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -0.845%E -0.613%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -14.15%E -4.64%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-08 01:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.28%EV -7.31%E -5.67%K -25.21%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.72%EV -14.15%E -4.64%K -6.90%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-08 01:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -0.845%E -0.613%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -15.55%E -5.18%K -7.78%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-08 01:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -1.56%E -1.14%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -15.55%E -5.18%K -7.78%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-08 01:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -6.59%E -5.07%K -21.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -15.55%E -5.18%K -7.78%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-08 01:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.56%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -18.37%E -6.33%K -9.67%G +0.000%9.7%2026-11-08 01:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 68.75%EV -10.19%E -8.15%K -40.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.25%EV -22.59%E -8.21%K -12.91%G +0.000%16.4%2026-11-08 01:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.6%2026-11-08 01:25
Matchbook◎1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.6%2026-11-08 01:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.6%2026-11-08 01:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.6%2026-11-08 01:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.6%2026-11-08 01:35
Polymarket◎1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%1.1%2026-11-08 00:55
Kalshi◎1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%1.1%2026-11-08 01:20
ProphetX◎1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%1.1%2026-11-08 01:35
Smarkets◎1.34I 74.63%NM 73.15%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.85%2.0%2026-11-08 01:35
BetOpenly◎1.36I 73.53%NM 72.02%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.98%2.1%2026-11-08 00:45

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