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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Golden State Warriors v Orlando Magic

Inicio: 2026-11-08 01:43 UTC

Final: Golden State Warriors 126–119 Orlando Magic

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

68 corredores (22 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Golden State Warriors (Local)

Predicción 71.85%1.39momio equitativo
EV -0.845%
Ventaja -0.613%
Kelly -2.22%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.38

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
68.49%71.64%71.90%73.59%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.251.331.331.3880.00%75.06%75.19%72.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Orlando Magic (Visitante)

Predicción 28.15%3.55momio equitativo
EV +2.74%
Ventaja +0.752%
Kelly +1.04%
Crecimiento +0.028%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.41%28.36%28.10%31.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.753.313.303.6536.36%30.24%30.30%27.40%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Golden State Warriors (Local): 71.85%; Orlando Magic (Visitante): 28.15%. Para Orlando Magic (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.55. 5 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.65, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.74%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (68 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
BetUS🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.59%EV -5.88%E -4.48%K -18.95%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.41%EV +2.74%E +0.752%K +1.04%G +0.028%3.7%2026-11-08 00:05
Pinnacle🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 73.02%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.98%EV +1.34%E +0.371%K +0.514%G +0.007%3.0%2026-11-08 01:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -5.88%E -4.48%K -18.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV +1.34%E +0.371%K +0.514%G +0.007%4.1%2026-11-08 00:50
Fliff🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -6.59%E -5.07%K -21.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV +1.34%E +0.371%K +0.514%G +0.007%4.7%2026-11-08 01:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.80%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.20%EV +0.210%E +0.059%K +0.082%G +0.000%3.3%2026-11-08 00:05
SportsBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.90%EV -5.16%E -3.91%K -16.11%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.10%EV -0.071%E -0.020%K -0.028%G +0.000%3.9%2026-11-08 00:05
Bovada🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.90%EV -5.16%E -3.91%K -16.11%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.10%EV -0.071%E -0.020%K -0.028%G +0.000%3.9%2026-11-08 00:05
BetAnything🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.05%EV -5.88%E -4.48%K -18.95%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.95%EV -0.071%E -0.020%K -0.028%G +0.000%4.5%2026-11-08 00:05
1xBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.58%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.42%EV -0.916%E -0.260%K -0.363%G +0.000%3.6%2026-11-08 00:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.73%EV -5.16%E -3.91%K -16.11%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.27%EV -0.916%E -0.260%K -0.363%G +0.000%4.2%2026-11-08 00:05
Coolbet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV -1.48%E -0.423%K -0.592%G +0.000%3.8%2026-11-08 00:19
theScore Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV -1.48%E -0.423%K -0.592%G +0.000%3.8%2026-11-08 00:15
Everygame🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV -1.48%E -0.423%K -0.592%G +0.000%3.8%2026-11-08 01:30
FanDuel🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -5.16%E -3.91%K -16.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -1.48%E -0.423%K -0.592%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-08 00:05
DraftKings🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -5.16%E -3.91%K -16.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -1.48%E -0.423%K -0.592%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-08 00:10
GTbets🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -5.16%E -3.91%K -16.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -1.48%E -0.423%K -0.592%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-08 00:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -5.88%E -4.48%K -18.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -1.48%E -0.423%K -0.592%G +0.000%4.9%2026-11-08 00:05
Fanatics🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -5.88%E -4.48%K -18.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -1.48%E -0.423%K -0.592%G +0.000%4.9%2026-11-08 01:30
Bet Victor🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 72.03%EV -3.72%E -2.78%K -10.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.97%EV -2.89%E -0.837%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.6%2026-11-08 01:19
betano_uk🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 72.03%EV -3.72%E -2.78%K -10.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.97%EV -2.89%E -0.837%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.6%2026-11-08 01:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 72.03%EV -3.72%E -2.78%K -10.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.97%EV -2.89%E -0.837%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.6%2026-11-08 01:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -2.89%E -0.837%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.2%2026-11-08 00:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -3.72%E -2.78%K -10.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -4.29%E -1.26%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.0%2026-11-08 01:30
TAB🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -3.72%E -2.78%K -10.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -4.29%E -1.26%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.0%2026-11-08 00:10
BetMGM🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -4.29%E -1.26%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.6%2026-11-08 00:05
Bet Right🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.16%E -3.91%K -16.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -4.29%E -1.26%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-08 00:15
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.59%E -5.07%K -21.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -4.29%E -1.26%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-08 00:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.59%E -5.07%K -21.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -4.29%E -1.26%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-08 00:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.59%E -5.07%K -21.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -4.29%E -1.26%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-08 00:00
ReBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.49%EV -3.72%E -2.78%K -10.94%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.51%EV -5.42%E -1.61%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.4%2026-11-08 01:25
picklebet_au🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.28%EV -3.00%E -2.22%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.72%EV -5.70%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.9%2026-11-08 01:30
Caesars🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%EV -3.72%E -2.78%K -10.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV -5.70%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.5%2026-11-08 01:35
MyBookie.ag🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.83%EV -5.88%E -4.48%K -18.95%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.17%EV -5.98%E -1.79%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-08 01:28
Dabble (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -3.00%E -2.22%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -7.11%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%4.4%2026-11-08 01:20
Neds🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -3.00%E -2.22%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -7.11%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%4.4%2026-11-08 00:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -3.00%E -2.22%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -7.11%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%4.4%2026-11-08 00:05
Codere (IT)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -3.72%E -2.78%K -10.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -7.11%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%4.9%2026-11-08 00:10
888sport🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -7.11%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-08 00:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -7.11%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-08 00:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -7.11%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-08 00:05
William Hill🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -7.11%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-08 00:05
PlayUp🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -7.11%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-08 00:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -7.11%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-08 00:05
Coral🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -7.11%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-08 00:05
betfred_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -8.52%E -2.62%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-08 00:05
BoyleSports🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -8.52%E -2.62%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-08 00:34
Sky Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -8.52%E -2.62%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-08 01:25
NordicBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -5.16%E -3.91%K -16.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -9.92%E -3.10%K -4.51%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-08 01:20
Betsson🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -5.16%E -3.91%K -16.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -9.92%E -3.10%K -4.51%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-08 01:20
NetBet (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.91%EV -10.19%E -8.15%K -40.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -9.92%E -3.10%K -4.51%G +0.000%11.3%2026-11-08 00:10
LeoVegas🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.79%EV -6.59%E -5.07%K -21.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -11.33%E -3.60%K -5.27%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-08 01:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.25%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.75%EV -11.61%E -3.70%K -5.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-08 01:35
BetRivers🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -0.845%E -0.613%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -14.15%E -4.64%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-08 01:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -0.845%E -0.613%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -14.15%E -4.64%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-08 01:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -0.845%E -0.613%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -14.15%E -4.64%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-08 01:25
TABtouch🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -0.845%E -0.613%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -14.15%E -4.64%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-08 01:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -0.845%E -0.613%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -14.15%E -4.64%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-08 01:25
Unibet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -0.845%E -0.613%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -14.15%E -4.64%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-08 01:25
betPARX🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -0.845%E -0.613%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -14.15%E -4.64%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-08 01:25
Bally Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -0.845%E -0.613%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -14.15%E -4.64%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-08 01:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -0.845%E -0.613%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -14.15%E -4.64%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-08 01:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -0.845%E -0.613%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -14.15%E -4.64%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-08 01:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.28%EV -7.31%E -5.67%K -25.21%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.72%EV -14.15%E -4.64%K -6.90%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-08 01:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -0.845%E -0.613%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -15.55%E -5.18%K -7.78%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-08 01:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -1.56%E -1.14%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -15.55%E -5.18%K -7.78%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-08 01:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -6.59%E -5.07%K -21.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -15.55%E -5.18%K -7.78%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-08 01:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.56%EV -4.44%E -3.34%K -13.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -18.37%E -6.33%K -9.67%G +0.000%9.7%2026-11-08 01:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 68.75%EV -10.19%E -8.15%K -40.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.25%EV -22.59%E -8.21%K -12.91%G +0.000%16.4%2026-11-08 01:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Novig◎1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.6%2026-11-08 01:25
Matchbook◎1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.6%2026-11-08 01:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.6%2026-11-08 01:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.6%2026-11-08 01:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.6%2026-11-08 01:35
Polymarket◎1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%1.1%2026-11-08 00:55
Kalshi◎1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%1.1%2026-11-08 01:20
ProphetX◎1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%1.1%2026-11-08 01:35
Smarkets◎1.34I 74.63%NM 73.15%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.85%2.0%2026-11-08 01:35
BetOpenly◎1.36I 73.53%NM 72.02%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.98%2.1%2026-11-08 00:45

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