Language:English
Virtus Segafredo Bologna v Valencia Basket
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Virtus Segafredo Bologna (Local)
Prediction 34.61%2.89fair odd
EV +0.365%
Edge +0.126%
Kelly +0.192%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 2.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.24%34.53%34.57%36.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.772.752.9039.22%36.14%36.36%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Valencia Basket (Visit)
Prediction 65.39%1.53fair odd
EV -1.91%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -3.83%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.21%65.47%65.43%67.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.441.431.5072.46%69.68%69.93%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Virtus Segafredo Bologna (Local): 34.61%; Valencia Basket (Visit): 65.39%. For Virtus Segafredo Bologna (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.89. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.365%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV +0.365%E +0.126%K +0.192%G +0.001% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -6.49%E -4.54%K -15.09%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +0.365%E +0.126%K +0.192%G +0.001% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -8.45%E -6.04%K -21.13%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-03 17:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +0.365%E +0.126%K +0.192%G +0.001% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -8.45%E -6.04%K -21.13%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-03 17:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +0.365%E +0.126%K +0.192%G +0.001% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -8.45%E -6.04%K -21.13%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-03 17:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV +0.365%E +0.126%K +0.192%G +0.001% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -9.76%E -7.07%K -25.68%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-03 16:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -0.327%E -0.114%K -0.174%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -6.49%E -4.54%K -15.09%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-03 18:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -0.327%E -0.114%K -0.174%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -6.49%E -4.54%K -15.09%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-03 18:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -0.327%E -0.114%K -0.174%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -6.49%E -4.54%K -15.09%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-03 18:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -0.327%E -0.114%K -0.174%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -6.49%E -4.54%K -15.09%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-03 18:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -0.327%E -0.114%K -0.174%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -6.49%E -4.54%K -15.09%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-03 18:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -0.327%E -0.114%K -0.174%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -6.49%E -4.54%K -15.09%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-03 18:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.80%EV -2.40%E -0.852%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.20%EV -5.84%E -4.05%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-03 17:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -3.10%E -1.11%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -4.53%E -3.10%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-03 17:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.10%E -1.11%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.84%E -4.05%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-03 17:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.10%E -1.11%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.84%E -4.05%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-03 17:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -3.10%E -1.11%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -6.49%E -4.54%K -15.09%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-03 18:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -3.10%E -1.11%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -7.14%E -5.03%K -17.01%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-03 17:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -3.10%E -1.11%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -7.14%E -5.03%K -17.01%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-03 18:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -3.10%E -1.11%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -7.14%E -5.03%K -17.01%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-03 18:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.78I 35.97%NM 34.28%EV -3.79%E -1.36%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.72%EV -5.18%E -3.57%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-03 18:20 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.76I 36.23%NM 34.60%EV -4.48%E -1.62%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.40%EV -4.53%E -3.10%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-03 17:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -4.83%E -1.76%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.87%E -2.64%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-03 16:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -4.83%E -1.76%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.87%E -2.64%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-03 17:33 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.83%E -1.76%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.18%E -3.57%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-03 17:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.83%E -1.76%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.84%E -4.05%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-03 17:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.83%E -1.76%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.84%E -4.05%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-03 17:09 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -4.83%E -1.76%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -6.49%E -4.54%K -15.09%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-03 17:14 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -4.83%E -1.76%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.45%E -6.04%K -21.13%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-03 17:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -4.83%E -1.76%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.45%E -6.04%K -21.13%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-03 18:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.38%EV -5.17%E -1.89%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.62%EV -1.91%E -1.28%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-03 17:14 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.38%EV -5.17%E -1.89%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.62%EV -1.91%E -1.28%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-03 17:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.22%EV -5.17%E -1.89%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.78%EV -2.57%E -1.72%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-03 18:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 33.98%EV -5.86%E -2.16%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.02%EV -8.45%E -6.04%K -21.13%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-03 18:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -6.56%E -2.43%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -2.57%E -1.72%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-03 18:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.56%E -2.43%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.18%E -3.57%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-03 17:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.56%E -2.43%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.84%E -4.05%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-03 18:24 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -6.56%E -2.43%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -6.49%E -4.54%K -15.09%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-03 17:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -6.56%E -2.43%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -8.45%E -6.04%K -21.13%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-03 17:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -6.56%E -2.43%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -8.45%E -6.04%K -21.13%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-03 17:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -6.56%E -2.43%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -8.45%E -6.04%K -21.13%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-03 17:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -8.29%E -3.13%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -5.84%E -4.05%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-03 17:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV -8.29%E -3.13%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -6.49%E -4.54%K -15.09%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-03 17:15 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -8.29%E -3.13%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -7.14%E -5.03%K -17.01%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-03 17:13 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -8.29%E -3.13%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -7.14%E -5.03%K -17.01%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-03 17:14 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.56I 39.06%NM 36.79%EV -11.40%E -4.45%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.21%EV -2.57%E -1.72%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-03 18:14 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -11.75%E -4.61%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -5.18%E -3.57%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-03 16:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 34.09% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 65.91% | 0.5% | 2026-04-03 18:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.94% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.06% | 0.9% | 2026-04-03 18:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.94% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.06% | 0.9% | 2026-04-03 18:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.25% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.75% | 2.1% | 2026-04-03 18:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.78I 35.97%NM 34.59% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.41% | 4.0% | 2026-04-03 18:20 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.50% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.44% | 12.0% | 2026-04-03 17:15 |