Language:English
Hapoel Tel Aviv v Real Madrid
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Hapoel Tel Aviv (Local)
Prediction 41.20%2.43fair odd
EV +0.936%
Edge +0.382%
Kelly +0.646%
Growth +0.006%
assuming max odds 2.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.29%41.24%41.29%43.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.292.302.4547.62%43.76%43.48%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Real Madrid (Visit)
Prediction 58.80%1.70fair odd
EV +0.550%
Edge +0.322%
Kelly +0.775%
Growth +0.004%
assuming max odds 1.71
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.15%58.76%58.71%61.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.611.621.7168.03%62.09%61.73%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hapoel Tel Aviv (Local): 41.20%; Real Madrid (Visit): 58.80%. For Hapoel Tel Aviv (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.43. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.936%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV +0.936%E +0.382%K +0.646%G +0.006% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -10.03%E -6.56%K -18.93%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV +0.936%E +0.382%K +0.646%G +0.006% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -10.62%E -6.99%K -20.43%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.85%EV -2.77%E -1.17%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.15%EV -4.15%E -2.55%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-07 17:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -3.18%E -1.35%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.98%E -1.80%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -3.18%E -1.35%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.98%E -1.80%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.18%E -1.35%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.92%E -3.70%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.18%E -1.35%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.92%E -3.70%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.18%E -1.35%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.92%E -3.70%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.91%EV -3.60%E -1.54%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.09%EV -4.74%E -2.93%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.56%EV -4.42%E -1.90%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.44%EV -2.98%E -1.80%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -5.24%E -2.28%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.98%E -1.80%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -5.24%E -2.28%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.98%E -1.80%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.24%E -2.28%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.74%E -2.93%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.24%E -2.28%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.74%E -2.93%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 17:58 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.24%E -2.28%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.74%E -2.93%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 17:58 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.24%E -2.28%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.74%E -2.93%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.24%E -2.28%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.74%E -2.93%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.24%E -2.28%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.92%E -3.70%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-07 17:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -5.24%E -2.28%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.51%E -4.09%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -5.24%E -2.28%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -7.68%E -4.89%K -13.48%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -5.24%E -2.28%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -7.68%E -4.89%K -13.48%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -5.24%E -2.28%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -7.68%E -4.89%K -13.48%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -5.24%E -2.28%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -10.03%E -6.56%K -18.93%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -5.24%E -2.28%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -10.03%E -6.56%K -18.93%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -5.24%E -2.28%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -10.03%E -6.56%K -18.93%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -6.07%E -2.66%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -3.57%E -2.17%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.09%EV -6.07%E -2.66%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.91%EV -6.51%E -4.09%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -7.30%E -3.25%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -2.39%E -1.44%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -7.30%E -3.25%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -2.39%E -1.44%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -7.30%E -3.25%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -2.39%E -1.44%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -7.30%E -3.25%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -2.39%E -1.44%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.30%E -3.25%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.98%E -1.80%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.30%E -3.25%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.98%E -1.80%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -7.30%E -3.25%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.57%E -2.17%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.30%E -3.25%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.74%E -2.93%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.30%E -3.25%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.92%E -3.70%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.30%E -3.25%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.92%E -3.70%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.30%E -3.25%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.68%E -4.89%K -13.48%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -8.13%E -3.64%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -2.39%E -1.44%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -8.13%E -3.64%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -2.98%E -1.80%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.73%EV -8.54%E -3.85%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.27%EV -6.51%E -4.09%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -9.36%E -4.26%K -7.80%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -3.57%E -2.17%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.85%EV -9.78%E -4.46%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.15%EV +0.550%E +0.322%K +0.775%G +0.004% | 4.1% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.63%EV -10.19%E -4.67%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.37%EV -4.74%E -2.93%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.18%EV -13.48%E -6.42%K -12.26%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 58.82%EV -13.56%E -9.23%K -28.86%G +0.000% | 15.6% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54% | 0.5% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54% | 0.5% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48% | 1.2% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.38% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.62% | 1.5% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.44% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.56% | 2.3% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.17% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 55.40% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.43% | 12.1% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |