La escuela de los momiosIdioma:Español
Hapoel Tel Aviv v Real Madrid
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Hapoel Tel Aviv (Local)
Predicción 41.20%2.43momio equitativo
EV +0.936%
Ventaja +0.382%
Kelly +0.646%
Crecimiento +0.006%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.45
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.29%41.24%41.29%43.85%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.102.292.302.4547.62%43.76%43.48%40.82%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Real Madrid (Visitante)
Predicción 58.80%1.70momio equitativo
EV +0.550%
Ventaja +0.322%
Kelly +0.775%
Crecimiento +0.004%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.71
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
56.15%58.76%58.71%61.71%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.471.611.621.7168.03%62.09%61.73%58.48%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
1 corredor ofrece un número de opciones distinto para este mercado (3 vías, frente al formato de 2 vías empleado en el análisis). Esta disparidad exige interpretar los resultados con cautela.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (45 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV +0.936%E +0.382%K +0.646%G +0.006% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -10.03%E -6.56%K -18.93%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| PlayUp | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV +0.936%E +0.382%K +0.646%G +0.006% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -10.62%E -6.99%K -20.43%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| 1xBet | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.85%EV -2.77%E -1.17%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.15%EV -4.15%E -2.55%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-07 17:49 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -3.18%E -1.35%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.98%E -1.80%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| LowVig.ag | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -3.18%E -1.35%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.98%E -1.80%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| NordicBet | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.18%E -1.35%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.92%E -3.70%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Betsson | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.18%E -1.35%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.92%E -3.70%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.18%E -1.35%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.92%E -3.70%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.91%EV -3.60%E -1.54%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.09%EV -4.74%E -2.93%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| Pinnacle | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.56%EV -4.42%E -1.90%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.44%EV -2.98%E -1.80%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| Betway | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -5.24%E -2.28%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.98%E -1.80%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| DraftKings | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -5.24%E -2.28%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.98%E -1.80%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| 888sport | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.24%E -2.28%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.74%E -2.93%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| Coolbet | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.24%E -2.28%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.74%E -2.93%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 17:58 |
| ReBet | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.24%E -2.28%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.74%E -2.93%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 17:58 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.24%E -2.28%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.74%E -2.93%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| 888sport (SE) | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.24%E -2.28%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.74%E -2.93%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| Everygame | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.24%E -2.28%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.92%E -3.70%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-07 17:54 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -5.24%E -2.28%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.51%E -4.09%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| BetMGM | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -5.24%E -2.28%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -7.68%E -4.89%K -13.48%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| BoyleSports | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -5.24%E -2.28%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -7.68%E -4.89%K -13.48%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Fanatics | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -5.24%E -2.28%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -7.68%E -4.89%K -13.48%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -5.24%E -2.28%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -10.03%E -6.56%K -18.93%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| Neds | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -5.24%E -2.28%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -10.03%E -6.56%K -18.93%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| Coral | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -5.24%E -2.28%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -10.03%E -6.56%K -18.93%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| FanDuel | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -6.07%E -2.66%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -3.57%E -2.17%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| GTbets | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.09%EV -6.07%E -2.66%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.91%EV -6.51%E -4.09%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Unibet | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -7.30%E -3.25%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -2.39%E -1.44%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -7.30%E -3.25%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -2.39%E -1.44%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Svenska Spel | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -7.30%E -3.25%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -2.39%E -1.44%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| ATG (SE) | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -7.30%E -3.25%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -2.39%E -1.44%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.30%E -3.25%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.98%E -1.80%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.30%E -3.25%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.98%E -1.80%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -7.30%E -3.25%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.57%E -2.17%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| theScore Bet | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.30%E -3.25%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.74%E -2.93%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| TAB | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.30%E -3.25%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.92%E -3.70%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| SportsBet | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.30%E -3.25%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.92%E -3.70%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Paddy Power | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.30%E -3.25%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.68%E -4.89%K -13.48%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| BetRivers | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -8.13%E -3.64%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -2.39%E -1.44%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -8.13%E -3.64%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -2.98%E -1.80%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| MyBookie.ag | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.73%EV -8.54%E -3.85%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.27%EV -6.51%E -4.09%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| TABtouch | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -9.36%E -4.26%K -7.80%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -3.57%E -2.17%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| William Hill | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.85%EV -9.78%E -4.46%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.15%EV +0.550%E +0.322%K +0.775%G +0.004% | 4.1% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| PMU (FR) | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.63%EV -10.19%E -4.67%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.37%EV -4.74%E -2.93%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.18%EV -13.48%E -6.42%K -12.26%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 58.82%EV -13.56%E -9.23%K -28.86%G +0.000% | 15.6% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54% | 0.5% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54% | 0.5% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48% | 1.2% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Smarkets | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.38% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.62% | 1.5% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Matchbook | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.44% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.56% | 2.3% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
Otros corredores — no incluidos en el análisis (1)
Estos corredores ofrecen un número de opciones distinto para el mercado y, por ello, quedan excluidos del análisis. Sus momios se muestran únicamente como referencia: las reglas de liquidación de esas apuestas pueden ser diferentes e introducen incertidumbre adicional.
| Corredor | Opción 1 | Opción 2 | Opción 3 | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.17% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 55.40% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.43% | 12.1% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |