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Philadelphia Phillies v Cleveland Guardians
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Philadelphia Phillies (Local)
Prediction 60.65%1.65fair odd
EV -2.36%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -3.86%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.61
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.80%60.75%60.64%63.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.561.571.6166.67%64.20%63.69%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Cleveland Guardians (Visit)
Prediction 39.35%2.54fair odd
EV +3.50%
Edge +1.33%
Kelly +2.14%
Growth +0.075%
assuming max odds 2.63
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.74%39.25%39.36%40.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.372.482.462.6342.19%40.25%40.65%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Philadelphia Phillies (Local): 60.65%; Cleveland Guardians (Visit): 39.35%. For Cleveland Guardians (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.54. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.63, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.50%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 63.07%EV -6.60%E -4.29%K -12.23%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.93%EV +3.50%E +1.33%K +2.14%G +0.075% | 3.0% | 2026-05-23 18:49 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -8.42%E -5.58%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV +2.31%E +0.890%K +1.45%G +0.033% | 4.7% | 2026-05-23 18:49 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -8.42%E -5.58%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV +2.31%E +0.890%K +1.45%G +0.033% | 4.7% | 2026-05-23 18:49 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -8.42%E -5.58%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV +2.31%E +0.890%K +1.45%G +0.033% | 4.7% | 2026-05-23 18:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -8.42%E -5.58%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV +2.31%E +0.890%K +1.45%G +0.033% | 4.7% | 2026-05-23 18:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -8.42%E -5.58%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV +2.31%E +0.890%K +1.45%G +0.033% | 4.7% | 2026-05-23 18:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -8.42%E -5.58%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV +2.31%E +0.890%K +1.45%G +0.033% | 4.7% | 2026-05-23 18:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -8.42%E -5.58%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV +2.31%E +0.890%K +1.45%G +0.033% | 4.7% | 2026-05-23 18:49 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -8.42%E -5.58%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV +2.31%E +0.890%K +1.45%G +0.033% | 4.7% | 2026-05-23 18:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -8.42%E -5.58%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV +2.31%E +0.890%K +1.45%G +0.033% | 4.7% | 2026-05-23 18:49 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -8.42%E -5.58%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV +2.31%E +0.890%K +1.45%G +0.033% | 4.7% | 2026-05-23 18:49 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -9.03%E -6.02%K -18.06%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV +0.347%E +0.136%K +0.224%G +0.001% | 5.9% | 2026-05-23 18:49 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -9.03%E -6.02%K -18.06%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV +0.347%E +0.136%K +0.224%G +0.001% | 5.9% | 2026-05-23 18:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -9.03%E -6.02%K -18.06%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV +0.347%E +0.136%K +0.224%G +0.001% | 5.9% | 2026-05-23 18:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -9.03%E -6.02%K -18.06%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV +0.347%E +0.136%K +0.224%G +0.001% | 5.9% | 2026-05-23 18:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 61.26%EV -2.96%E -1.85%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 38.74%EV -0.440%E -0.174%K -0.287%G +0.000% | 2.0% | 2026-05-23 21:50 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.83%EV -2.36%E -1.46%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.17%EV -1.62%E -0.648%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 2.1% | 2026-05-23 20:08 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -5.39%E -3.45%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -1.62%E -0.648%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-23 20:08 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.73%EV -2.36%E -1.46%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 39.27%EV -2.01%E -0.809%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-05-23 20:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.64%EV -2.36%E -1.46%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.36%EV -2.41%E -0.971%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-05-23 20:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.64%EV -2.36%E -1.46%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.36%EV -2.41%E -0.971%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-05-23 20:09 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.54%EV -2.36%E -1.46%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 39.46%EV -2.80%E -1.13%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-05-23 20:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.29%EV -5.39%E -3.45%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.71%EV -2.80%E -1.13%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-23 21:39 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.44%EV -2.36%E -1.46%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 39.56%EV -3.19%E -1.30%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-05-23 20:19 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.89%EV -4.18%E -2.64%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 39.11%EV -3.19%E -1.30%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-23 21:09 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.04%EV -4.78%E -3.05%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.96%EV -3.19%E -1.30%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-23 20:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.35%EV -6.00%E -3.87%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.65%EV -3.19%E -1.30%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-23 20:09 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -3.57%E -2.24%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -3.59%E -1.46%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-23 20:09 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.78%E -3.05%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -3.59%E -1.46%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-23 21:49 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -5.39%E -3.45%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -3.59%E -1.46%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-23 20:05 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -7.21%E -4.71%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -3.59%E -1.46%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-23 20:39 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.45%EV -3.57%E -2.24%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.55%EV -4.37%E -1.80%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-23 19:49 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -4.78%E -3.05%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -4.77%E -1.97%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-23 20:19 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -4.78%E -3.05%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -4.77%E -1.97%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-23 20:19 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -2.96%E -1.85%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -5.56%E -2.31%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-23 20:09 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -2.96%E -1.85%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -5.56%E -2.31%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-23 20:09 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -2.96%E -1.85%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -5.56%E -2.31%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-23 20:09 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.57%E -2.24%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -5.56%E -2.31%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-23 20:09 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.78%E -3.05%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.56%E -2.31%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-23 20:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.78%E -3.05%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.56%E -2.31%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-23 20:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.78%E -3.05%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.56%E -2.31%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-23 20:19 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.78%E -3.05%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.56%E -2.31%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-23 20:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.00%E -3.87%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -5.56%E -2.31%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-23 20:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -2.96%E -1.85%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -6.34%E -2.66%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-23 20:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -7.21%E -4.71%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -6.34%E -2.66%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-23 19:48 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.00%EV -4.18%E -2.64%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.00%EV -6.74%E -2.84%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-23 20:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.00%EV -4.18%E -2.64%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.00%EV -6.74%E -2.84%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-23 20:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.34% | 2.57I 38.91%NM 38.66% | 0.6% | 2026-05-23 21:49 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61% | 1.0% | 2026-05-23 22:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.06% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.94% | 1.1% | 2026-05-23 21:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.53% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.47% | 1.3% | 2026-05-23 21:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.53% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.47% | 1.3% | 2026-05-23 22:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.83% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.17% | 2.1% | 2026-05-23 21:59 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.64% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.36% | 2.4% | 2026-05-23 21:59 |