Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

New York Mets v Washington Nationals

Início: 2026-08-15 20:11 UTC

Final: New York Mets 5–4 Washington Nationals

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

63 casas de apostas (21 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

New York Mets (Local)

Previsão 56.03%1.78odd justa
EV -0.830%
Vantagem -0.469%
Kelly -1.08%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.77

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
54.69%56.08%55.95%57.18%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.611.701.701.7762.11%58.80%58.82%56.50%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Washington Nationals (Visitante)

Previsão 43.97%2.27odd justa
EV -1.06%
Vantagem -0.473%
Kelly -0.851%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.25

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
42.82%43.92%44.05%45.31%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.102.182.182.2547.62%45.84%45.87%44.44%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: New York Mets (Local): 56.03%; Washington Nationals (Visitante): 43.97%. Para New York Mets (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 1.78. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 1.77, com valor esperado de -0.830%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (63 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
Caesars🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 55.42%EV -0.830%E -0.469%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58%EV -3.26%E -1.48%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-15 19:49
FanDuel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 56.14%EV -1.95%E -1.11%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.86%EV -1.50%E -0.671%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.8%2026-08-15 20:10
1xBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92%EV -1.95%E -1.11%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08%EV -2.38%E -1.07%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.2%2026-08-15 09:44
BetUS🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92%EV -1.95%E -1.11%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08%EV -2.38%E -1.07%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.2%2026-08-15 20:09
Pinnacle🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92%EV -1.95%E -1.11%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08%EV -2.38%E -1.07%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.2%2026-08-15 20:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.81%EV -1.95%E -1.11%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 44.19%EV -2.82%E -1.28%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-15 20:10
LowVig.ag🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.81%EV -1.95%E -1.11%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 44.19%EV -2.82%E -1.28%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-15 20:10
BetAnything🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.47%EV -1.95%E -1.11%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%EV -4.14%E -1.90%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-15 20:10
GTbets🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 56.39%EV -2.51%E -1.44%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.61%EV -1.06%E -0.473%K -0.851%G +0.000%1.9%2026-08-15 13:49
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 56.39%EV -2.51%E -1.44%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.61%EV -1.06%E -0.473%K -0.851%G +0.000%1.9%2026-08-15 16:24
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.95%EV -2.51%E -1.44%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 44.05%EV -2.82%E -1.28%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-15 16:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.51%E -1.44%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-15 02:49
Fliff🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -2.51%E -1.44%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-15 16:39
MyBookie.ag🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.53%EV -3.07%E -1.78%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.47%EV -5.02%E -2.32%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-15 20:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -3.07%E -1.78%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-15 19:44
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -3.07%E -1.78%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-15 19:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -3.07%E -1.78%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-15 20:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.07%E -1.78%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 19:39
Neds🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.07%E -1.78%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 19:44
Betway🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.19%E -2.45%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.26%E -1.48%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-15 20:04
Unibet (UK)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.19%E -2.45%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.26%E -1.48%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-15 20:04
888sport🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.19%E -2.45%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 18:04
Bet Right🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.19%E -2.45%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 19:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.19%E -2.45%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 18:04
Coolbet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.19%E -2.45%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 19:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.19%E -2.45%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 18:04
BetMGM🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.19%E -2.45%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 19:44
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.19%E -2.45%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 13:49
Svenska Spel🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.96%EV -4.75%E -2.80%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.04%EV -1.06%E -0.473%K -0.851%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-15 20:05
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.96%EV -4.75%E -2.80%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.04%EV -1.06%E -0.473%K -0.851%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-15 20:05
Unibet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.96%EV -4.75%E -2.80%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.04%EV -1.06%E -0.473%K -0.851%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-15 20:10
TAB🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.75%E -2.80%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.26%E -1.48%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-15 12:44
LeoVegas🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -4.75%E -2.80%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -4.14%E -1.90%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 20:05
PlayUp🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.75%E -2.80%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 11:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.75%E -2.80%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 09:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.75%E -2.80%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 18:04
DraftKings🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -5.31%E -3.14%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -1.06%E -0.473%K -0.851%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-15 20:10
Bovada🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.67%EV -5.31%E -3.14%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.33%EV -2.82%E -1.28%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-15 20:09
SportsBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.22%EV -5.31%E -3.14%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.78%EV -4.58%E -2.11%K -3.92%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 20:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.31%E -3.14%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 20:04
Unibet (NL)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -5.87%E -3.50%K -8.64%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -1.94%E -0.871%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-15 20:05
TABtouch🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -5.87%E -3.50%K -8.64%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -1.94%E -0.871%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-15 20:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -5.87%E -3.50%K -8.64%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -1.94%E -0.871%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-15 20:05
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.87%E -3.50%K -8.64%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -4.14%E -1.90%K -3.51%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 20:08
NordicBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.87%E -3.50%K -8.64%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -4.14%E -1.90%K -3.51%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 20:08
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.87%E -3.50%K -8.64%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 20:04
Dabble (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.87%E -3.50%K -8.64%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 20:00
betPARX🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -6.43%E -3.85%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -1.94%E -0.871%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 20:04
ATG (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -6.43%E -3.85%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -1.94%E -0.871%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 20:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -6.43%E -3.85%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -1.94%E -0.871%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 20:05
Casumo🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -6.43%E -3.85%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -1.94%E -0.871%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 20:05
Bally Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -6.43%E -3.85%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -1.94%E -0.871%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 20:04
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.43%E -3.85%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-15 17:44
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.43%E -3.85%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-15 20:04
Tipico (DE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.43%E -3.85%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-15 20:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.43%EV -6.99%E -4.21%K -10.60%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-15 20:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%EV -6.99%E -4.21%K -10.60%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-15 20:04
LiveScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%EV -7.55%E -4.58%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -4.14%E -1.90%K -3.51%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 20:04
Virgin Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%EV -7.55%E -4.58%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -4.14%E -1.90%K -3.51%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 20:05
Bet Victor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.55%E -4.58%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 19:58
betano_uk🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.55%E -4.58%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 19:58
ReBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.55%E -4.58%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 20:09
Grosvenor🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.07%EV -9.79%E -6.08%K -16.06%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 42.93%EV -5.90%E -2.76%K -5.18%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-15 20:05
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (10)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Novig◎1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%0.6%2026-08-15 20:09
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56%0.7%2026-08-15 20:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56%0.7%2026-08-15 20:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56%0.7%2026-08-15 20:10
ProphetX◎1.75I 57.14%NM 56.58%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.42%1.0%2026-08-15 20:10
Polymarket◎1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.2%2026-08-15 13:44
Matchbook◎1.73I 57.80%NM 56.86%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.14%1.7%2026-08-15 20:10
BetOpenly◎1.77I 56.50%NM 55.42%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58%2.0%2026-08-15 19:54
Smarkets◎1.74I 57.47%NM 56.28%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.72%2.1%2026-08-15 20:10
Kalshi◎1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08%2.2%2026-08-15 19:55