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New York Mets v Miami Marlins

2026-08-01 20:11 UTC — MLB

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New York Mets (Local)

Prediction 54.51%1.83fair odd
EV -1.87%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -2.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.66%54.51%54.55%54.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.741.751.8060.24%57.31%57.14%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Miami Marlins (Visit)

Prediction 45.49%2.20fair odd
EV -0.842%
Edge -0.386%
Kelly -0.713%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.03%45.49%45.45%46.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.982.092.102.1850.51%47.76%47.62%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: New York Mets (Local): 54.51%; Miami Marlins (Visit): 45.49%. For Miami Marlins (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.20. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.18, with an expected value of -0.842%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
GTbets1.80I 55.56%NM 54.43%EV -1.87%E -1.04%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.57%EV -2.21%E -1.03%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-31 17:54
Hard Rock Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 54.43%EV -1.87%E -1.04%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.57%EV -2.21%E -1.03%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-31 18:19
FanDuel1.79I 55.87%NM 54.91%EV -2.42%E -1.35%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.09%EV -0.842%E -0.386%K -0.713%G +0.000%1.7%2026-07-31 16:54
1xBet1.79I 55.87%NM 54.80%EV -2.42%E -1.35%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.20%EV -1.30%E -0.597%K -1.11%G +0.000%1.9%2026-07-31 17:04
PointsBet (AU)1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.51%E -1.98%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.48%E -2.13%K -4.07%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-31 16:54
Caesars1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.51%E -1.98%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.48%E -2.13%K -4.07%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-31 17:49
Neds1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.51%E -1.98%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -6.75%E -3.29%K -6.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-31 17:59
Ladbrokes (AU)1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.51%E -1.98%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -6.75%E -3.29%K -6.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-31 17:59
MyBookie.ag1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -4.05%E -2.30%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -3.57%E -1.68%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-31 16:55
DraftKings1.76I 56.82%NM 54.29%EV -4.05%E -2.30%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.71%EV -4.94%E -2.36%K -4.53%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-31 18:50
NordicBet1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.05%E -2.30%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.84%E -2.82%K -5.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-31 16:54
Betsson1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.05%E -2.30%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.84%E -2.82%K -5.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-31 16:54
Unibet (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.60%E -2.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.48%E -2.13%K -4.07%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-31 16:54
Bet Right1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.60%E -2.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.48%E -2.13%K -4.07%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-31 16:59
Ladbrokes (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.60%E -2.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.48%E -2.13%K -4.07%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-31 17:59
Coral1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.60%E -2.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.48%E -2.13%K -4.07%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-31 17:59
PlayUp1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.60%E -2.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.39%E -2.59%K -4.99%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-31 16:59
Fliff1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.14%E -2.96%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.48%E -2.13%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-31 16:55
Winamax (DE)1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.14%E -2.96%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.48%E -2.13%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-31 16:59
BetMGM1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.14%E -2.96%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.48%E -2.13%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-31 17:59
Paddy Power1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.69%E -3.29%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.48%E -2.13%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-31 16:55
betano_uk1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.69%E -3.29%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.48%E -2.13%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-31 16:53
Bet Victor1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.69%E -3.29%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.48%E -2.13%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-31 16:53
888sport1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.69%E -3.29%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.48%E -2.13%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-31 17:00
Betr (AU)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.69%E -3.29%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.48%E -2.13%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-31 16:59
888sport (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.69%E -3.29%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.48%E -2.13%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-31 16:59
Mr Green (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.69%E -3.29%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.48%E -2.13%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-31 16:59
William Hill1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.69%E -3.29%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.48%E -2.13%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-31 17:19
Betclic (FR)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.59%EV -5.69%E -3.29%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.41%EV -5.39%E -2.59%K -4.99%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-31 16:54
SportsBet1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.24%E -3.63%K -8.66%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -4.48%E -2.13%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-31 16:54
ReBet1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -7.87%E -4.66%K -11.41%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -6.75%E -3.29%K -6.43%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-31 16:54
Unibet (FR)1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -8.96%E -5.37%K -13.37%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.50%EV -9.03%E -4.51%K -9.03%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-31 16:55
Winamax (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 54.40%EV -9.51%E -5.73%K -14.40%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.60%EV -9.94%E -5.02%K -10.14%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-31 17:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.82I 54.95%NM 54.95%2.22I 45.05%NM 45.05%-0.0%2026-07-31 16:55
Polymarket1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%1.0%2026-07-31 16:55
Novig1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-07-31 19:20
Smarkets1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.50%9.9%2026-07-31 16:55