Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

New York Mets v Miami Marlins

Início: 2026-08-01 20:31 UTC

Final: New York Mets 2–6 Miami Marlins

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

64 casas de apostas (21 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

New York Mets (Local)

Previsão 54.34%1.84odd justa
EV -2.18%
Vantagem -1.21%
Kelly -2.72%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.80

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
53.33%54.33%54.26%55.56%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.681.751.751.8059.52%57.10%57.14%55.56%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Miami Marlins (Visitante)

Previsão 45.66%2.19odd justa
EV +0.442%
Vantagem +0.201%
Kelly +0.368%
Crescimento +0.002%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.20

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
44.44%45.67%45.74%46.67%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.962.102.102.2051.02%47.70%47.62%45.45%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: New York Mets (Local): 54.34%; Miami Marlins (Visitante): 45.66%. Para Miami Marlins (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 2.19. 3 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 2.20, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +0.442%.

Odds das casas de apostas (64 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼MargemAtualização
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 55.42%EV -3.81%E -2.15%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58%EV +0.442%E +0.201%K +0.368%G +0.002%2.0%2026-08-01 20:20
Pinnacle🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 55.42%EV -3.81%E -2.15%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58%EV +0.442%E +0.201%K +0.368%G +0.002%2.0%2026-08-01 20:05
Everygame🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 55.42%EV -3.81%E -2.15%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58%EV +0.442%E +0.201%K +0.368%G +0.002%2.0%2026-08-01 19:34
FanDuel🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 54.91%EV -2.72%E -1.52%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.09%EV -0.471%E -0.216%K -0.399%G +0.000%1.7%2026-08-01 18:30
GTbets🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 54.43%EV -2.18%E -1.21%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.57%EV -1.84%E -0.856%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-01 20:09
TAB🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.13%EV -4.90%E -2.80%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.87%EV -1.84%E -0.856%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-01 18:37
Dabble (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -6.53%E -3.79%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -1.84%E -0.856%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-01 19:29
BetUS🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 54.31%EV -2.18%E -1.21%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.69%EV -2.30%E -1.07%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-01 20:10
BetRivers🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.59%EV -3.27%E -1.84%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.41%EV -2.30%E -1.07%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-01 18:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.59%EV -3.27%E -1.84%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.41%EV -2.30%E -1.07%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-01 18:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 54.20%EV -2.18%E -1.21%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.80%EV -2.75%E -1.29%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-01 20:10
LowVig.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 54.20%EV -2.18%E -1.21%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.80%EV -2.75%E -1.29%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-01 20:09
BetAnything🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 54.34%EV -2.72%E -1.52%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.66%EV -2.75%E -1.29%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-01 20:10
MyBookie.ag🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%EV -4.90%E -2.80%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -2.75%E -1.29%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-01 17:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -4.35%E -2.47%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -3.21%E -1.51%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-01 18:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -4.35%E -2.47%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -3.21%E -1.51%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-01 18:28
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -5.44%E -3.13%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -3.21%E -1.51%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-01 20:09
SportsBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.95%EV -5.98%E -3.46%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.05%EV -3.67%E -1.74%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-01 18:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.81%E -2.15%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.12%E -1.96%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-01 09:54
ReBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.81%E -2.15%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.12%E -1.96%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-01 20:09
Caesars🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.81%E -2.15%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.12%E -1.96%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-01 20:09
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.81%E -2.15%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.12%E -1.96%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-31 20:35
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.81%E -2.15%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.12%E -1.96%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-01 19:10
Bet Right🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.90%E -2.80%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.12%E -1.96%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-01 10:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.90%E -2.80%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.12%E -1.96%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-01 20:10
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.90%E -2.80%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.12%E -1.96%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-01 20:10
Unibet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.90%E -2.80%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.12%E -1.96%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-01 18:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.90%E -2.80%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.12%E -1.96%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-01 18:30
Casumo🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.90%E -2.80%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.12%E -1.96%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-01 18:25
Bally Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.90%E -2.80%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.12%E -1.96%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-01 18:29
ATG (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.90%E -2.80%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.12%E -1.96%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-01 18:25
betPARX🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.90%E -2.80%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.12%E -1.96%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-01 18:25
Coolbet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.90%E -2.80%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.12%E -1.96%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-01 10:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.90%E -2.80%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.12%E -1.96%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-01 18:29
Fliff🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.44%E -3.13%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.12%E -1.96%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 20:00
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.44%E -3.13%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.12%E -1.96%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 20:09
LiveScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.44%E -3.13%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.12%E -1.96%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 18:20
TABtouch🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.44%E -3.13%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.12%E -1.96%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 18:19
Virgin Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.44%E -3.13%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.12%E -1.96%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 18:19
888sport🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.98%E -3.46%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.12%E -1.96%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-01 10:04
Betr (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.98%E -3.46%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.12%E -1.96%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-01 10:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.98%E -3.46%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.12%E -1.96%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-01 10:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.98%E -3.46%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.12%E -1.96%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-01 10:04
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.98%E -3.46%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.12%E -1.96%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-01 09:35
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.98%E -3.46%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.12%E -1.96%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-01 17:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.53%E -3.79%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -4.12%E -1.96%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-01 20:00
Bovada🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -8.16%E -4.83%K -11.82%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -4.12%E -1.96%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-01 20:14
Marathon Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.57%EV -5.44%E -3.13%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.43%EV -4.58%E -2.19%K -4.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 16:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -3.27%E -1.84%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -5.04%E -2.42%K -4.66%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-01 20:10
PlayUp🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.90%E -2.80%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.04%E -2.42%K -4.66%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-01 17:49
NordicBet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.35%E -2.47%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.49%E -2.65%K -5.13%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 08:39
Betsson🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.35%E -2.47%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.49%E -2.65%K -5.13%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 08:34
Neds🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.81%E -2.15%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -6.41%E -3.13%K -6.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 20:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.81%E -2.15%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -6.41%E -3.13%K -6.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 20:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -4.35%E -2.47%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -6.41%E -3.13%K -6.10%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-01 20:10
Betway🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.44%E -3.13%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.41%E -3.13%K -6.10%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-01 20:10
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -5.98%E -3.46%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.41%E -3.13%K -6.10%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-01 18:29
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.59%EV -8.70%E -5.18%K -12.80%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.41%EV -7.78%E -3.85%K -7.62%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-01 18:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -4.90%E -2.80%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -8.69%E -4.34%K -8.69%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-01 20:14
betano_uk🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -4.90%E -2.80%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -8.69%E -4.34%K -8.69%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-01 19:59
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -4.90%E -2.80%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -8.69%E -4.34%K -8.69%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-01 20:00
LeoVegas🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -4.90%E -2.80%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -8.69%E -4.34%K -8.69%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-01 20:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -7.61%E -4.48%K -10.88%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -8.69%E -4.34%K -8.69%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-01 20:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.55%EV -7.61%E -4.48%K -10.88%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.45%EV -10.52%E -5.36%K -10.95%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-01 20:14
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (10)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
BetOpenly◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.48%2.19I 45.66%NM 45.52%0.3%2026-08-01 20:09
Polymarket◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%0.9%2026-08-01 17:49
Kalshi◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%0.9%2026-08-01 20:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.14%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.86%1.3%2026-08-01 20:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.14%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.86%1.3%2026-08-01 20:20
Novig◎1.77I 56.50%NM 55.64%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.36%1.5%2026-08-01 20:25
Smarkets◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.05%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.95%2.1%2026-08-01 20:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.79I 55.87%NM 54.68%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.32%2.2%2026-08-01 20:25
ProphetX◎1.77I 56.50%NM 55.08%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.92%2.6%2026-08-01 20:25
Matchbook◎1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%5.4%2026-08-01 20:25