Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

New York Mets v Miami Marlins

2026-08-02 17:41 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

60 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

New York Mets (Local)

Predicción 47.82%2.09momio equitativo
EV -0.529%
Ventaja -0.254%
Kelly -0.490%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.08

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
47.14%47.86%47.78%49.60%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.901.992.002.0852.63%50.14%50.00%48.08%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Miami Marlins (Visitante)

Predicción 52.18%1.92momio equitativo
EV -1.91%
Ventaja -1.01%
Kelly -2.17%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.88

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
50.40%52.14%52.22%52.86%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.761.831.831.8856.82%54.68%54.64%53.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: New York Mets (Local): 47.82%; Miami Marlins (Visitante): 52.18%. Para New York Mets (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.09. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 2.08, con un valor esperado de -0.529%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (60 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
FanDuel2.08I 48.08%NM 47.21%EV -0.529%E -0.254%K -0.490%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 52.79%EV -2.95%E -1.59%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.8%2026-08-02 01:00
1xBet2.06I 48.54%NM 47.58%EV -1.49%E -0.721%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 52.42%EV -2.43%E -1.30%K -2.79%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-02 02:34
Pinnacle2.06I 48.54%NM 47.31%EV -1.49%E -0.721%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.69%EV -3.47%E -1.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-02 02:40
Hard Rock Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 47.70%EV -1.96%E -0.958%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 52.30%EV -2.43%E -1.30%K -2.79%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-02 01:29
BetOnline.ag2.03I 49.26%NM 48.08%EV -2.92%E -1.44%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.92%EV -1.91%E -1.01%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-02 01:50
LowVig.ag2.03I 49.26%NM 48.08%EV -2.92%E -1.44%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.92%EV -1.91%E -1.01%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-02 01:50
BetUS2.03I 49.26%NM 48.08%EV -2.92%E -1.44%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.92%EV -1.91%E -1.01%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-02 01:50
GTbets2.03I 49.26%NM 48.08%EV -2.92%E -1.44%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.92%EV -1.91%E -1.01%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-02 01:49
Bovada2.03I 49.26%NM 47.14%EV -2.92%E -1.44%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.86%EV -5.56%E -3.07%K -6.86%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-02 00:59
BetRivers2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -3.40%E -1.68%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -4.52%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-02 01:55
Unibet (NL)2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -3.40%E -1.68%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -4.52%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-02 01:55
Unibet (SE)2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -3.40%E -1.68%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -4.52%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-02 01:55
Svenska Spel2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -3.40%E -1.68%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -4.52%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-02 01:55
Bet Right2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -3.40%E -1.68%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -5.04%E -2.77%K -6.14%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-02 02:40
MyBookie.ag2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.35%E -2.18%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.47%E -1.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-02 01:33
TAB2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.35%E -2.18%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.47%E -1.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-02 01:29
Betway2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.35%E -2.18%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.52%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-02 01:29
PointsBet (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.35%E -2.18%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.52%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-02 01:50
theScore Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.35%E -2.18%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.52%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-02 01:30
Caesars2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.35%E -2.18%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.52%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-02 01:49
Coral2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.35%E -2.18%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.52%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-02 01:30
Ladbrokes (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.35%E -2.18%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.52%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-02 01:30
BetMGM2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.35%E -2.18%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.52%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-02 01:25
Casumo2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.35%E -2.18%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.52%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-02 01:54
Unibet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.35%E -2.18%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.52%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-02 01:55
LeoVegas (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.35%E -2.18%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.52%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-02 01:54
betPARX2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.35%E -2.18%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.52%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-02 01:54
ATG (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.35%E -2.18%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.52%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-02 01:55
Bally Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.35%E -2.18%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.52%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-02 01:55
LiveScore Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.35%E -2.18%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -5.04%E -2.77%K -6.14%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-02 01:55
TABtouch2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.35%E -2.18%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -5.04%E -2.77%K -6.14%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-02 01:55
Virgin Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.35%E -2.18%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -5.04%E -2.77%K -6.14%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-02 01:55
Coolbet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.35%E -2.18%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -5.04%E -2.77%K -6.14%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-02 01:54
Marathon Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -4.35%E -2.18%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -5.56%E -3.07%K -6.86%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-02 02:34
Paddy Power2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.35%E -2.18%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.08%E -3.38%K -7.60%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-02 01:05
SportsBet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.35%E -2.18%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.08%E -3.38%K -7.60%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-01 20:40
888sport2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.35%E -2.18%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.08%E -3.38%K -7.60%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-02 01:30
Betr (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.35%E -2.18%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.08%E -3.38%K -7.60%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-02 02:40
Mr Green (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.35%E -2.18%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.08%E -3.38%K -7.60%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-02 01:30
888sport (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.35%E -2.18%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.08%E -3.38%K -7.60%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-02 01:30
William Hill2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.35%E -2.18%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.08%E -3.38%K -7.60%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-02 02:44
DraftKings1.99I 50.25%NM 47.91%EV -4.83%E -2.43%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.09%EV -4.52%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-02 01:29
Unibet (UK)1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.31%E -2.68%K -5.42%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.52%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-02 01:28
Betsson1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.31%E -2.68%K -5.42%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.52%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-02 01:59
NordicBet1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.31%E -2.68%K -5.42%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.52%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-02 01:30
PlayUp1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.31%E -2.68%K -5.42%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.52%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-02 01:30
Neds1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.31%E -2.68%K -5.42%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.52%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-02 01:29
Ladbrokes (AU)1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.31%E -2.68%K -5.42%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.52%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-02 01:25
Winamax (DE)1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -5.31%E -2.68%K -5.42%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -5.04%E -2.77%K -6.14%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-02 01:30
BetAnything1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -5.79%E -2.94%K -5.97%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -3.47%E -1.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-02 01:54
Betclic (FR)1.96I 51.02%NM 48.15%EV -6.27%E -3.20%K -6.53%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.85%EV -5.04%E -2.77%K -6.14%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-02 01:29
Fliff1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -6.75%E -3.46%K -7.10%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.52%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-02 01:50
ReBet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -6.75%E -3.46%K -7.10%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.52%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-02 01:14
betano_uk1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.75%E -3.46%K -7.10%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.08%E -3.38%K -7.60%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-02 01:29
Bet Victor1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.75%E -3.46%K -7.10%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.08%E -3.38%K -7.60%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-02 01:29
Grosvenor1.93I 51.81%NM 47.70%EV -7.70%E -3.99%K -8.28%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.30%EV -8.17%E -4.64%K -10.75%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-02 01:54
Dabble (AU)1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -8.18%E -4.26%K -8.89%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -1.91%E -1.01%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 02:20
Unibet (FR)1.92I 52.08%NM 48.11%EV -8.18%E -4.26%K -8.89%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.89%EV -7.12%E -4.00%K -9.13%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-02 01:30
Winamax (FR)1.92I 52.08%NM 48.11%EV -8.18%E -4.26%K -8.89%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.89%EV -7.12%E -4.00%K -9.13%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-02 01:30
Tipico (DE)1.90I 52.63%NM 49.60%EV -9.14%E -4.81%K -10.15%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.40%EV -2.43%E -1.30%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-01 20:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Novig2.08I 48.08%NM 47.74%1.90I 52.63%NM 52.26%0.7%2026-08-02 01:29
ProphetX2.09I 47.85%NM 47.36%1.88I 53.19%NM 52.64%1.0%2026-08-02 02:30
Polymarket2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%1.1%2026-08-01 20:45
Kalshi2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%1.1%2026-08-01 22:50
Matchbook2.06I 48.54%NM 47.31%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.69%2.6%2026-08-02 02:35
Smarkets1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%8.2%2026-08-02 02:45