The School of Odds

Milwaukee Brewers v Miami Marlins

2026-07-18 20:11 UTC — MLB

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Milwaukee Brewers (Local)

Prediction 54.70%1.83fair odd
EV -0.989%
Edge -0.546%
Kelly -1.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.18%54.73%54.71%56.28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.661.741.731.8160%58%58%55%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Miami Marlins (Visit)

Prediction 45.30%2.21fair odd
EV -2.16%
Edge -0.999%
Kelly -1.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.72%45.27%45.29%45.82%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.982.112.102.1651%47%48%46%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
1xBet1.81I 55.25%NM 54.18%EV -0.989%E -0.546%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.82%EV -3.06%E -1.43%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.0%2026-07-17 18:09
LowVig.ag1.79I 55.87%NM 54.57%EV -2.08%E -1.16%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.43%EV -2.61%E -1.21%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-17 17:49
BetOnline.ag1.79I 55.87%NM 54.57%EV -2.08%E -1.16%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.43%EV -2.61%E -1.21%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-17 17:50
Betway1.77I 56.50%NM 54.85%EV -3.18%E -1.79%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.15%EV -2.61%E -1.21%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-17 20:14
Fanatics1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.18%E -1.79%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.88%E -2.32%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-17 17:54
Caesars1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.18%E -1.79%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.88%E -2.32%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-17 18:04
MyBookie.ag1.76I 56.82%NM 54.76%EV -3.72%E -2.12%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.24%EV -3.52%E -1.65%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-17 18:09
Unibet (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.27%E -2.44%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.88%E -2.32%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-17 18:10
PlayUp1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.27%E -2.44%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.78%E -2.78%K -5.35%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-17 18:09
FanDuel1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -4.82%E -2.77%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -2.16%E -0.999%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-17 17:50
PointsBet (AU)1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.82%E -2.77%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.61%E -1.21%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-17 17:54
DraftKings1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -4.82%E -2.77%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -3.97%E -1.87%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-17 19:59
Winamax (DE)1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.82%E -2.77%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.88%E -2.32%K -4.43%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-17 18:09
Bet Right1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -5.36%E -3.10%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -3.97%E -1.87%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-17 18:09
betano_uk1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.36%E -3.10%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.88%E -2.32%K -4.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-17 17:53
Bet Victor1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.36%E -3.10%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.88%E -2.32%K -4.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-17 17:59
888sport1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.36%E -3.10%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.88%E -2.32%K -4.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-17 18:10
Mr Green (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.36%E -3.10%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.88%E -2.32%K -4.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-17 18:09
888sport (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.36%E -3.10%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.88%E -2.32%K -4.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-17 18:09
Betr (AU)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.36%E -3.10%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.88%E -2.32%K -4.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-17 18:10
William Hill1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.36%E -3.10%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.88%E -2.32%K -4.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-17 18:14
Betclic (FR)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.59%EV -5.36%E -3.10%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.41%EV -5.78%E -2.78%K -5.35%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-17 18:06
SportsBet1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.91%E -3.44%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -4.88%E -2.32%K -4.43%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-17 17:54
Fliff1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -6.46%E -3.78%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -2.61%E -1.21%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-17 17:49
ReBet1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.46%E -3.78%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -4.88%E -2.32%K -4.43%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-17 20:14
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -8.65%E -5.18%K -12.91%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -2.61%E -1.21%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-17 17:54
Unibet (FR)1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -8.65%E -5.18%K -12.91%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.50%EV -9.40%E -4.70%K -9.40%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-17 18:09
Winamax (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 54.40%EV -9.19%E -5.54%K -13.93%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.60%EV -10.31%E -5.21%K -10.52%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-17 18:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%0.9%2026-07-17 19:14
Polymarket1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.2%2026-07-17 20:09
Novig1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08%2.2%2026-07-17 19:50
Smarkets1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.50%9.9%2026-07-17 18:10