The School of Odds

Miami Marlins v Cleveland Guardians

2026-07-11 20:11 UTC — MLB

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Miami Marlins (Local)

Prediction 56.61%1.77fair odd
EV -0.928%
Edge -0.530%
Kelly -1.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.70%56.70%56.63%57.75%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.601.681.671.7563%60%60%57%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Cleveland Guardians (Visit)

Prediction 43.39%2.30fair odd
EV +0.225%
Edge +0.098%
Kelly +0.172%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.25%43.30%43.37%44.30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.052.192.202.3149%46%45%43%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag1.69I 59.17%NM 57.75%EV -4.33%E -2.56%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 42.25%EV +0.225%E +0.098%K +0.172%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-10 18:59
LowVig.ag1.69I 59.17%NM 57.75%EV -4.33%E -2.56%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 42.25%EV +0.225%E +0.098%K +0.172%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-10 18:59
PointsBet (AU)1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.33%E -2.56%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.38%E -1.06%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-10 17:39
1xBet1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92%EV -0.928%E -0.530%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08%EV -3.68%E -1.66%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.2%2026-07-10 17:50
FanDuel1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -4.33%E -2.56%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -3.68%E -1.66%K -3.02%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-10 17:35
theScore Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.19%E -1.87%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.55%E -2.07%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-10 18:15
Fanatics1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.33%E -2.56%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.55%E -2.07%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-10 17:35
Unibet (UK)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.89%E -2.91%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.55%E -2.07%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-10 17:34
Bet Right1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.89%E -2.91%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.55%E -2.07%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-10 17:39
PlayUp1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.89%E -2.91%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.55%E -2.07%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-10 17:49
888sport1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.46%E -3.27%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.55%E -2.07%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-10 17:40
Betr (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.46%E -3.27%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.55%E -2.07%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-10 17:39
888sport (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.46%E -3.27%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.55%E -2.07%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-10 17:39
Mr Green (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.46%E -3.27%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.55%E -2.07%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-10 17:39
William Hill1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.46%E -3.27%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.55%E -2.07%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-10 18:19
Paddy Power1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.59%E -3.99%K -10.14%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.55%E -2.07%K -3.79%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-10 17:34
SportsBet1.66I 60.24%NM 56.77%EV -6.02%E -3.63%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -5.42%E -2.48%K -4.59%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-10 17:34
Betclic (FR)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.51%EV -5.46%E -3.27%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.49%EV -5.85%E -2.70%K -5.00%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-10 17:38
Fliff1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.19%E -1.87%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -6.72%E -3.12%K -5.84%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-10 17:39
Winamax (DE)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -4.89%E -2.91%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.72%E -3.12%K -5.84%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-10 17:54
Bet Victor1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.46%E -3.27%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.72%E -3.12%K -5.84%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-10 17:38
ReBet1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.59%E -3.99%K -10.14%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.72%E -3.12%K -5.84%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-10 17:34
Unibet (FR)1.61I 62.11%NM 56.60%EV -8.85%E -5.50%K -14.51%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.40%EV -8.89%E -4.23%K -8.08%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-10 17:34
Winamax (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 56.16%EV -9.42%E -5.89%K -15.70%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.84%EV -11.06%E -5.39%K -10.53%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-10 17:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is the most recent time we recorded each book's price — on the default model, when it last changed, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.79I 55.87%NM 55.91%2.27I 44.05%NM 44.09%-0.1%2026-07-10 18:40
Polymarket1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%0.9%2026-07-10 18:39
Smarkets1.61I 62.11%NM 56.37%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.63%10.2%2026-07-10 17:34