The School of Odds

Kansas City Royals v San Diego Padres

2026-07-18 00:11 UTC — MLB

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Kansas City Royals (Local)

Prediction 52.43%1.91fair odd
EV -1.96%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -2.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.59%52.40%52.48%52.63%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.721.811.801.8758%55%56%53%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

San Diego Padres (Visit)

Prediction 47.57%2.10fair odd
EV -2.00%
Edge -0.971%
Kelly -1.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.37%47.60%47.52%48.41%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.891.992.002.0653%50%50%49%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
1xBet1.87I 53.48%NM 52.42%EV -1.96%E -1.05%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.58%EV -2.00%E -0.971%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.0%2026-07-16 05:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.01%E -1.63%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.85%E -2.43%K -4.85%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-16 02:09
MyBookie.ag1.83I 54.64%NM 52.59%EV -4.06%E -2.22%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 47.41%EV -3.43%E -1.69%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-16 01:19
FanDuel1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -4.06%E -2.22%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -3.90%E -1.93%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-16 01:15
theScore Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.06%E -2.22%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.85%E -2.43%K -4.85%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-16 02:29
Betsson1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.06%E -2.22%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.81%E -2.93%K -5.92%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-16 01:19
NordicBet1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.06%E -2.22%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.81%E -2.93%K -5.92%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-16 01:19
Fliff1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.06%E -2.22%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -7.23%E -3.71%K -7.61%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-16 01:30
Bet Right1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -4.58%E -2.52%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -3.90%E -1.93%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-16 01:34
PlayUp1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.58%E -2.52%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.85%E -2.43%K -4.85%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-16 01:30
Coolbet1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.58%E -2.52%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.85%E -2.43%K -4.85%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-16 01:39
Marathon Bet1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -5.11%E -2.82%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -4.85%E -2.43%K -4.85%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-16 05:10
Paddy Power1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.63%E -3.13%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.85%E -2.43%K -4.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-16 01:14
SportsBet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.63%E -3.13%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.85%E -2.43%K -4.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-16 01:15
Unibet (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.63%E -3.13%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.85%E -2.43%K -4.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-16 01:16
Winamax (DE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.63%E -3.13%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.85%E -2.43%K -4.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-16 01:19
888sport1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.63%E -3.13%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.85%E -2.43%K -4.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-16 01:35
Betr (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.63%E -3.13%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.85%E -2.43%K -4.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-16 01:34
Mr Green (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.63%E -3.13%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.85%E -2.43%K -4.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-16 01:35
888sport (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.63%E -3.13%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.85%E -2.43%K -4.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-16 01:35
William Hill1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.63%E -3.13%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.85%E -2.43%K -4.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-16 01:50
Betclic (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.51%EV -5.63%E -3.13%K -7.04%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.49%EV -5.33%E -2.68%K -5.38%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-16 01:19
LeoVegas1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -5.63%E -3.13%K -7.04%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -5.81%E -2.93%K -5.92%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-16 06:35
Tipico (DE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -5.63%E -3.13%K -7.04%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%EV -6.28%E -3.19%K -6.48%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-16 07:10
ReBet1.77I 56.50%NM 52.42%EV -7.20%E -4.07%K -9.36%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.58%EV -7.23%E -3.71%K -7.61%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-16 01:15
Winamax (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 52.49%EV -9.82%E -5.71%K -13.65%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.51%EV -9.61%E -5.06%K -10.68%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-16 01:20
Unibet (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 52.35%EV -9.82%E -5.71%K -13.65%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 47.65%EV -10.09%E -5.34%K -11.33%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-16 01:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.87I 53.48%NM 51.93%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.07%3.0%2026-07-16 07:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.87I 53.48%NM 51.93%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.07%3.0%2026-07-16 07:45
Polymarket1.85I 54.05%NM 52.44%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.56%3.1%2026-07-16 08:10
Kalshi1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%4.1%2026-07-16 07:00
Smarkets1.74I 57.47%NM 52.33%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.67%9.8%2026-07-16 01:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-07-16 08:00