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Kansas City Royals v Philadelphia Phillies
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Kansas City Royals (Local)
Prediction 41.37%2.42fair odd
EV +0.539%
Edge +0.222%
Kelly +0.377%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 2.43
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.15%41.45%41.33%43.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.302.302.4347.62%43.53%43.48%41.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Philadelphia Phillies (Visit)
Prediction 58.63%1.71fair odd
EV -1.51%
Edge -0.898%
Kelly -2.22%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.68
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.76%58.55%58.67%59.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.631.631.6863.69%61.41%61.35%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kansas City Royals (Local): 41.37%; Philadelphia Phillies (Visit): 58.63%. For Kansas City Royals (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.42. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.43, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.539%.
Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTbets🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 40.29%EV +0.539%E +0.222%K +0.377%G +0.002% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.71%EV -3.85%E -2.35%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.1% | 2026-07-04 23:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.41I 41.49%NM 40.49%EV -0.289%E -0.120%K -0.205%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.51%EV -3.85%E -2.35%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-07-04 23:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.41I 41.49%NM 40.49%EV -0.289%E -0.120%K -0.205%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.51%EV -3.85%E -2.35%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-07-04 23:50 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -0.702%E -0.293%K -0.502%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -5.61%E -3.49%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-04 22:19 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.39I 41.84%NM 40.84%EV -1.12%E -0.467%K -0.803%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.16%EV -3.27%E -1.98%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-07-04 23:55 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.94%EV -1.53%E -0.643%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.06%EV -3.27%E -1.98%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-07-04 22:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 41.34%EV -1.94%E -0.820%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.66%EV -2.09%E -1.25%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 2.1% | 2026-07-05 00:09 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 41.04%EV -1.94%E -0.820%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.96%EV -3.27%E -1.98%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-07-04 23:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -1.94%E -0.820%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -5.61%E -3.49%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-04 21:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -1.94%E -0.820%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -5.61%E -3.49%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-04 21:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.69%EV -2.77%E -1.18%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.31%EV -1.51%E -0.898%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 2.1% | 2026-07-04 23:50 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -2.77%E -1.18%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.27%E -1.98%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-07-04 23:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -2.77%E -1.18%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.27%E -1.98%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-07-04 06:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -2.77%E -1.18%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -4.44%E -2.72%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-04 23:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.77%E -1.18%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.03%E -3.10%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-04 23:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.77%E -1.18%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.03%E -3.10%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-04 21:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.77%E -1.18%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.03%E -3.10%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-04 21:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.77%E -1.18%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.03%E -3.10%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-04 21:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -2.77%E -1.18%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.61%E -3.49%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-05 00:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.91%EV -3.18%E -1.36%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.09%EV -5.03%E -3.10%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-04 23:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.91%EV -3.18%E -1.36%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.09%EV -5.03%E -3.10%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-04 23:44 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.31%EV -3.60%E -1.54%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.69%EV -3.85%E -2.35%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-04 23:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.85%EV -4.01%E -1.73%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.15%EV -2.09%E -1.25%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-07-04 23:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -4.01%E -1.73%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -3.85%E -2.35%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-04 07:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -4.01%E -1.73%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -5.03%E -3.10%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-04 22:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.84%E -2.10%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.27%E -1.98%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-04 04:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -4.84%E -2.10%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -4.44%E -2.72%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-04 23:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.84%E -2.10%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.03%E -3.10%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-04 21:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.84%E -2.10%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.03%E -3.10%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-04 21:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.84%E -2.10%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.03%E -3.10%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-04 21:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.84%E -2.10%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.03%E -3.10%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-04 21:00 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.84%E -2.10%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.03%E -3.10%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-04 23:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.84%E -2.10%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.03%E -3.10%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-05 00:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.84%E -2.10%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.03%E -3.10%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-04 05:44 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.84%E -2.10%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.61%E -3.49%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-04 23:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.84%E -2.10%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.20%E -3.87%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-04 07:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.84%E -2.10%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.20%E -3.87%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-05 00:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -5.25%E -2.29%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -4.44%E -2.72%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-04 12:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -5.67%E -2.49%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -3.85%E -2.35%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-04 23:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -5.67%E -2.49%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -3.85%E -2.35%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-04 23:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.67%E -2.49%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.44%E -2.72%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-04 23:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -6.08%E -2.68%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -4.44%E -2.72%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-04 04:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -6.08%E -2.68%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -4.44%E -2.72%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-04 04:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.91%E -3.07%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.27%E -1.98%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-05 00:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.91%E -3.07%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.85%E -2.35%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-04 23:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.91%E -3.07%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.85%E -2.35%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-04 23:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.91%E -3.07%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.85%E -2.35%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-04 23:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -6.91%E -3.07%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -4.44%E -2.72%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-05 00:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -6.91%E -3.07%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -4.44%E -2.72%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-05 00:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -6.91%E -3.07%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -4.44%E -2.72%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-05 00:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -6.91%E -3.07%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -4.44%E -2.72%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-05 00:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -6.91%E -3.07%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -4.44%E -2.72%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-05 00:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.91%E -3.07%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.03%E -3.10%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-05 00:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.91%E -3.07%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.20%E -3.87%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-04 21:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -7.74%E -3.47%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -5.03%E -3.10%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-05 00:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.62%EV -7.74%E -3.47%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.38%EV -6.78%E -4.27%K -11.50%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-04 23:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.64%EV -8.15%E -3.67%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.36%EV -3.27%E -1.98%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-05 00:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -8.98%E -4.08%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -2.68%E -1.61%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-05 00:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -8.98%E -4.08%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.03%E -3.10%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-05 00:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -8.98%E -4.08%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -5.61%E -3.49%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-05 00:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 41.98%EV -10.22%E -4.71%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.02%EV -7.96%E -5.07%K -13.96%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-05 00:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -11.05%E -5.14%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -5.03%E -3.10%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-05 00:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -13.11%E -6.25%K -11.92%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -6.20%E -3.87%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-05 00:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (10)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.42I 41.32%NM 41.12% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.88% | 0.5% | 2026-07-05 00:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.98% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 59.02% | 0.8% | 2026-07-04 23:35 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.98% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 59.02% | 0.8% | 2026-07-05 00:10 |
| Polymarket◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39% | 1.2% | 2026-07-05 00:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.83% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.17% | 1.2% | 2026-07-05 00:10 |
| Novig◎ | 2.47I 40.49%NM 39.90% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.10% | 1.5% | 2026-07-05 00:10 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.73% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.27% | 1.5% | 2026-07-05 00:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.69% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.31% | 1.6% | 2026-07-05 00:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.23% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77% | 1.9% | 2026-07-04 23:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.94% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.06% | 2.6% | 2026-07-05 00:10 |