Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Kansas City Royals v Chicago Cubs

2026-08-08 00:11 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

54 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Kansas City Royals (Local)

Predicción 40.52%2.47momio equitativo
EV +1.30%
Ventaja +0.521%
Kelly +0.869%
Crecimiento +0.011%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.60%40.46%40.51%41.77%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.252.362.352.5044.44%42.39%42.55%40.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Chicago Cubs (Visitante)

Predicción 59.48%1.68momio equitativo
EV -0.076%
Ventaja -0.045%
Kelly -0.111%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.68

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.23%59.54%59.49%61.40%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.541.601.601.6864.94%62.47%62.50%59.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Kansas City Royals (Local): 40.52%; Chicago Cubs (Visitante): 59.48%. Para Kansas City Royals (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.47. 2 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.50, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +1.30%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 39.32%EV +1.30%E +0.521%K +0.869%G +0.011%1.62I 61.73%NM 60.68%EV -3.64%E -2.25%K -5.88%G +0.000%1.7%2026-08-07 05:50
Caesars🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 39.90%EV +0.087%E +0.035%K +0.059%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.10%EV -2.45%E -1.50%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.5%2026-08-07 05:00
LowVig.ag🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.80%EV -0.723%E -0.295%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 60.20%EV -3.64%E -2.25%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-07 04:59
BetOnline.ag🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.80%EV -0.723%E -0.295%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 60.20%EV -3.64%E -2.25%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-07 05:00
GTbets🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.80%EV -0.723%E -0.295%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 60.20%EV -3.64%E -2.25%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-07 05:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -0.723%E -0.295%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -6.62%E -4.22%K -11.61%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-07 07:15
Fliff🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -0.723%E -0.295%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -8.40%E -5.46%K -15.56%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-07 07:39
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -2.75%E -1.15%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -4.24%E -2.63%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-07 05:35
Dabble (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -2.75%E -1.15%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -7.81%E -5.04%K -14.20%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-07 07:19
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -2.75%E -1.15%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -7.81%E -5.04%K -14.20%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-07 05:10
Bovada🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 40.25%EV -3.15%E -1.32%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.75%EV -4.24%E -2.63%K -6.95%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-07 04:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -3.56%E -1.50%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -3.64%E -2.25%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-07 05:35
FanDuel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -3.56%E -1.50%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -4.24%E -2.63%K -6.95%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-07 03:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -3.56%E -1.50%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -4.24%E -2.63%K -6.95%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-07 05:06
BetRivers🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -3.56%E -1.50%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -4.24%E -2.63%K -6.95%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-07 05:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -3.56%E -1.50%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -4.24%E -2.63%K -6.95%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-07 05:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -3.56%E -1.50%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -4.24%E -2.63%K -6.95%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-07 05:10
betPARX🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -3.56%E -1.50%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -4.83%E -3.02%K -8.06%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-07 05:06
Bally Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -3.56%E -1.50%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -4.83%E -3.02%K -8.06%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-07 05:06
Casumo🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -3.56%E -1.50%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -4.83%E -3.02%K -8.06%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-07 05:10
Unibet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -3.56%E -1.50%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -4.83%E -3.02%K -8.06%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-07 05:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -3.56%E -1.50%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -4.83%E -3.02%K -8.06%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-07 05:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -3.56%E -1.50%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -4.83%E -3.02%K -8.06%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-07 05:10
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.56%E -1.50%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.62%E -4.22%K -11.61%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-07 03:50
1xBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.69%EV -4.78%E -2.03%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 58.31%EV -0.076%E -0.045%K -0.111%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-07 04:15
Betway🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.78%E -2.03%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.24%E -2.63%K -6.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-07 03:55
Fanatics🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.78%E -2.03%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.24%E -2.63%K -6.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-07 04:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.78%E -2.03%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.83%E -3.02%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-07 07:00
888sport🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.78%E -2.03%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.83%E -3.02%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-07 04:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.78%E -2.03%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.83%E -3.02%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-07 04:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.78%E -2.03%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.83%E -3.02%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-07 04:00
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.78%E -2.03%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.83%E -3.02%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-07 04:25
LeoVegas🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.78%E -2.03%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.83%E -3.02%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-07 07:00
TABtouch🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.78%E -2.03%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.83%E -3.02%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-07 05:10
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -4.78%E -2.03%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -5.43%E -3.41%K -9.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-07 04:00
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.78%E -2.03%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.62%E -4.22%K -11.61%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-07 03:50
Bet Right🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -5.18%E -2.21%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -4.24%E -2.63%K -6.95%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-07 04:00
NordicBet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -5.59%E -2.40%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -4.24%E -2.63%K -6.95%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-07 04:35
Betsson🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -5.59%E -2.40%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -4.24%E -2.63%K -6.95%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-07 04:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.41%EV -5.59%E -2.40%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.59%EV -6.02%E -3.81%K -10.39%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-07 05:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.41%EV -5.59%E -2.40%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.59%EV -6.02%E -3.81%K -10.39%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-07 05:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.66%EV -5.99%E -2.58%K -4.54%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.34%EV -5.43%E -3.41%K -9.20%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-07 06:59
TAB🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -6.80%E -2.96%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -1.86%E -1.13%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-07 03:59
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -6.80%E -2.96%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -3.05%E -1.87%K -4.84%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-07 04:00
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.80%E -2.96%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.64%E -2.25%K -5.88%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-07 04:55
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.80%E -2.96%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.64%E -2.25%K -5.88%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-07 05:45
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.80%E -2.96%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.83%E -3.02%K -8.06%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-07 03:55
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.80%E -2.96%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.83%E -3.02%K -8.06%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-07 03:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.80%E -2.96%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.83%E -3.02%K -8.06%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-07 04:15
ReBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.80%E -2.96%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.43%E -3.41%K -9.20%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-07 06:59
Marathon Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -7.61%E -3.34%K -5.95%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.05%E -1.87%K -4.84%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-07 03:55
Grosvenor🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.31%EV -7.61%E -3.34%K -5.95%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.69%EV -8.40%E -5.46%K -15.56%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-07 05:10
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.83%E -3.92%K -7.06%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.62%E -4.22%K -11.61%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-07 06:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -8.83%E -3.92%K -7.06%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -7.21%E -4.62%K -12.88%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-07 07:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (8)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Novig2.53I 39.53%NM 39.33%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.67%0.5%2026-08-07 06:35
Polymarket2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39%1.2%2026-08-07 03:55
Kalshi2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39%1.2%2026-08-07 04:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.47%1.63I 61.35%NM 60.53%1.3%2026-08-07 07:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.47%1.63I 61.35%NM 60.53%1.3%2026-08-07 07:45
ProphetX2.52I 39.68%NM 38.98%1.61I 62.11%NM 61.02%1.8%2026-08-07 06:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.42I 41.32%NM 40.25%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.75%2.7%2026-08-07 07:25
Smarkets2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%4.2%2026-08-07 07:45
Arbitraje (1 combinación) +0.48%Hard Rock Bet 2.50 (40.2%) / 1xBet 1.68 (59.8%)Ver detalles
Kansas City Royals (Local)Chicago Cubs (Visitante)Margen
Hard Rock Bet🎯 2.50 (40.2%)1xBet🎯 1.68 (59.8%)+0.478%