Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Houston Astros v Toronto Blue Jays

2026-08-05 18:10 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Houston Astros (Local)

Predicción 59.10%1.69momio equitativo
EV -1.89%
Ventaja -1.14%
Kelly -2.86%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.66

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.21%59.11%59.05%60.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.561.611.621.6664.10%61.97%61.73%60.24%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Toronto Blue Jays (Visitante)

Predicción 40.90%2.45momio equitativo
EV +1.01%
Ventaja +0.411%
Kelly +0.690%
Crecimiento +0.007%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.47

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.61%40.89%40.95%41.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.202.342.352.4745.45%42.69%42.55%40.49%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Houston Astros (Local): 59.10%; Toronto Blue Jays (Visitante): 40.90%. Para Toronto Blue Jays (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.45. 3 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.47, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +1.01%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
LowVig.ag1.62I 61.73%NM 60.39%EV -4.25%E -2.63%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 39.61%EV +1.01%E +0.411%K +0.690%G +0.007%2.2%2026-08-05 02:39
GTbets1.62I 61.73%NM 60.39%EV -4.25%E -2.63%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 39.61%EV +1.01%E +0.411%K +0.690%G +0.007%2.2%2026-08-05 02:40
Hard Rock Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 59.76%EV -2.48%E -1.50%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 40.24%EV +0.197%E +0.080%K +0.136%G +0.000%1.4%2026-08-05 01:40
Caesars1.65I 60.61%NM 59.56%EV -2.48%E -1.50%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 40.44%EV -0.621%E -0.256%K -0.434%G +0.000%1.8%2026-08-05 02:19
Pinnacle1.63I 61.35%NM 59.85%EV -3.66%E -2.25%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 40.15%EV -0.621%E -0.256%K -0.434%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-05 02:10
FanDuel1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -5.43%E -3.40%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -1.85%E -0.770%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-04 22:50
Bovada1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -5.43%E -3.40%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -1.85%E -0.770%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-04 22:50
1xBet1.66I 60.24%NM 59.01%EV -1.89%E -1.14%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 40.99%EV -2.26%E -0.944%K -1.62%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-05 01:59
BetOnline.ag1.66I 60.24%NM 58.91%EV -1.89%E -1.14%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.09%EV -2.67%E -1.12%K -1.93%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-05 01:40
Paddy Power1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.21%E -4.59%K -12.65%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -2.67%E -1.12%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-04 22:49
Ladbrokes (UK)1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -4.84%E -3.01%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -3.07%E -1.30%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-05 02:20
Coral1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -4.84%E -3.01%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -3.07%E -1.30%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-05 02:19
SportsBet1.57I 63.69%NM 60.15%EV -7.21%E -4.59%K -12.65%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.85%EV -3.07%E -1.30%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-04 22:49
BetUS1.66I 60.24%NM 58.71%EV -1.89%E -1.14%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.29%EV -3.48%E -1.48%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-05 01:40
BetAnything1.64I 60.98%NM 59.00%EV -3.07%E -1.87%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.00%EV -3.48%E -1.48%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-05 02:14
MyBookie.ag1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -4.25%E -2.63%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -3.48%E -1.48%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-05 02:20
theScore Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.48%E -1.50%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -3.89%E -1.66%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-05 00:24
PointsBet (AU)1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -3.66%E -2.25%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -3.89%E -1.66%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-05 01:55
BetMGM1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.25%E -2.63%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.89%E -1.66%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-05 02:19
Neds1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.25%E -2.63%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.89%E -1.66%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-05 02:40
Unibet (NL)1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.25%E -2.63%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.89%E -1.66%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-05 01:30
Unibet (SE)1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.25%E -2.63%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.89%E -1.66%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-05 01:30
BetRivers1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.25%E -2.63%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.89%E -1.66%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-05 01:29
Svenska Spel1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.25%E -2.63%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.89%E -1.66%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-05 01:30
LeoVegas1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.25%E -2.63%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.89%E -1.66%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-05 02:19
Betway1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.84%E -3.01%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.89%E -1.66%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-05 02:19
DraftKings1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.84%E -3.01%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.89%E -1.66%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-05 02:19
888sport1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.43%E -3.40%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.89%E -1.66%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-05 02:25
Mr Green (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.43%E -3.40%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.89%E -1.66%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-05 02:24
888sport (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.43%E -3.40%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.89%E -1.66%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-05 02:24
PlayUp1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.43%E -3.40%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.89%E -1.66%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-05 02:40
Betr (AU)1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -6.03%E -3.79%K -10.21%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -3.89%E -1.66%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 02:25
Bet Right1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -4.84%E -3.01%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -4.30%E -1.84%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-05 02:24
Unibet (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -4.25%E -2.63%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -4.71%E -2.02%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-05 02:20
NordicBet1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -4.84%E -3.01%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -4.71%E -2.02%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 02:40
Coolbet1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -4.84%E -3.01%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -4.71%E -2.02%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 02:24
Casumo1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -4.25%E -2.63%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -5.12%E -2.21%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-05 01:30
Unibet1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -4.25%E -2.63%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -5.12%E -2.21%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-05 01:30
LeoVegas (SE)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -4.25%E -2.63%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -5.12%E -2.21%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-05 01:30
betPARX1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -4.25%E -2.63%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -5.12%E -2.21%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-05 01:30
ATG (SE)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -4.25%E -2.63%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -5.12%E -2.21%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-05 01:30
Bally Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -4.25%E -2.63%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -5.12%E -2.21%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-05 01:35
Marathon Bet1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.84%E -3.01%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -5.12%E -2.21%K -3.88%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 01:55
TABtouch1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.84%E -3.01%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -5.12%E -2.21%K -3.88%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 01:30
Fliff1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.25%E -2.63%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.94%E -2.58%K -4.57%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 02:25
William Hill1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.25%E -2.63%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.94%E -2.58%K -4.57%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 02:25
BoyleSports1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.25%E -2.63%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.94%E -2.58%K -4.57%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 02:39
ReBet1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.84%E -3.01%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.94%E -2.58%K -4.57%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-05 02:19
betano_uk1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.43%E -3.40%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.94%E -2.58%K -4.57%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-05 02:18
Bet Victor1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.43%E -3.40%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.94%E -2.58%K -4.57%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-05 02:16
Betclic (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.43%E -3.40%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.94%E -2.58%K -4.57%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-05 02:19
Winamax (DE)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.43%E -3.40%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.94%E -2.58%K -4.57%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-05 02:19
Virgin Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%EV -5.43%E -3.40%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -6.76%E -2.96%K -5.28%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-05 01:30
LiveScore Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%EV -5.43%E -3.40%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -6.76%E -2.96%K -5.28%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-05 01:30
Betsson1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -3.66%E -2.25%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -7.16%E -3.16%K -5.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 01:35
Ladbrokes (AU)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.07%E -1.87%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -7.98%E -3.55%K -6.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 02:20
Unibet (FR)1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -6.62%E -4.19%K -11.41%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -7.98%E -3.55%K -6.39%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-05 02:20
Grosvenor1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -7.80%E -5.00%K -13.93%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -7.98%E -3.55%K -6.39%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-05 01:29
Winamax (FR)1.56I 64.10%NM 58.51%EV -7.80%E -5.00%K -13.93%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -10.03%E -4.56%K -8.36%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-05 02:19
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Novig1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76%0.6%2026-08-05 02:40
Polymarket1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%0.9%2026-08-05 01:55
ProphetX1.65I 60.61%NM 59.66%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.34%1.6%2026-08-05 02:40
Kalshi1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.23%1.9%2026-08-05 02:25
Matchbook1.66I 60.24%NM 59.11%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.89%1.9%2026-08-05 01:55
Smarkets1.56I 64.10%NM 58.95%2.24I 44.64%NM 41.05%8.7%2026-08-05 02:40