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Cleveland Guardians v New York Mets
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Cleveland Guardians (Local)
Prediction 55.12%1.81fair odd
EV -1.88%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -2.41%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.78
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.66%55.15%55.16%56.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.731.721.7860.61%57.84%58.14%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
New York Mets (Visit)
Prediction 44.88%2.23fair odd
EV +0.975%
Edge +0.433%
Kelly +0.780%
Growth +0.008%
assuming max odds 2.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.61%44.85%44.84%46.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.142.152.2548.78%46.83%46.62%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cleveland Guardians (Local): 55.12%; New York Mets (Visit): 44.88%. For New York Mets (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.23. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.975%.
Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.39%EV -4.09%E -2.35%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.61%EV +0.975%E +0.433%K +0.780%G +0.008% | 1.9% | 2026-08-04 21:21 |
| DraftKings | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.28%EV -1.88%E -1.06%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.72%EV -1.27%E -0.577%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.6% | 2026-08-04 21:00 |
| FanDuel | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.42%EV -2.43%E -1.37%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58%EV -1.27%E -0.577%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 2.0% | 2026-08-04 22:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.42%EV -2.43%E -1.37%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58%EV -1.27%E -0.577%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 2.0% | 2026-08-04 20:34 |
| BetRivers | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.84%EV -4.09%E -2.35%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.16%EV -1.27%E -0.577%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-04 20:50 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.84%EV -4.09%E -2.35%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.16%EV -1.27%E -0.577%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-04 20:49 |
| GTbets | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.16%EV -1.88%E -1.06%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 2.19I 45.66%NM 44.84%EV -1.72%E -0.784%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.8% | 2026-08-04 20:00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.16%EV -1.88%E -1.06%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 2.19I 45.66%NM 44.84%EV -1.72%E -0.784%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.8% | 2026-08-04 22:25 |
| 1xBet | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.30%EV -2.43%E -1.37%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 2.19I 45.66%NM 44.70%EV -1.72%E -0.784%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 2.2% | 2026-08-04 19:53 |
| BetUS | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.19%EV -2.43%E -1.37%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.81%EV -2.17%E -0.994%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-08-04 19:54 |
| BetAnything | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.47%EV -3.54%E -2.02%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%EV -2.17%E -0.994%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-04 22:05 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.94%EV -1.88%E -1.06%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.06%EV -2.62%E -1.21%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-08-04 19:59 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.94%EV -1.88%E -1.06%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.06%EV -2.62%E -1.21%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-08-04 20:00 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.78%EV -5.19%E -3.02%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.22%EV -2.62%E -1.21%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-04 20:50 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.78%EV -5.19%E -3.02%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.22%EV -2.62%E -1.21%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-04 20:50 |
| Casumo | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.81%EV -5.74%E -3.36%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.19%EV -3.06%E -1.42%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 20:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.81%EV -5.74%E -3.36%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.19%EV -3.06%E -1.42%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 20:50 |
| Unibet | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.81%EV -5.74%E -3.36%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.19%EV -3.06%E -1.42%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 20:49 |
| Bally Bet | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.81%EV -5.74%E -3.36%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.19%EV -3.06%E -1.42%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 20:50 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.81%EV -5.74%E -3.36%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.19%EV -3.06%E -1.42%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 20:50 |
| betPARX | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.81%EV -5.74%E -3.36%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.19%EV -3.06%E -1.42%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 20:50 |
| TAB | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.13%EV -3.54%E -2.02%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.87%EV -3.51%E -1.63%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-04 20:08 |
| ReBet | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.09%E -2.35%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.51%E -1.63%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-04 19:55 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.09%E -2.35%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.51%E -1.63%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-04 19:49 |
| theScore Bet | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.09%E -2.35%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.51%E -1.63%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-04 19:55 |
| Bovada | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -5.19%E -3.02%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -3.51%E -1.63%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-04 22:24 |
| 888sport | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.74%E -3.36%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.51%E -1.63%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-04 21:19 |
| Fliff | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.74%E -3.36%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.51%E -1.63%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-04 21:49 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.74%E -3.36%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.51%E -1.63%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-04 21:20 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.74%E -3.36%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.51%E -1.63%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-04 21:20 |
| TABtouch | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.29%E -3.70%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.51%E -1.63%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 20:49 |
| Paddy Power | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -7.95%E -4.76%K -11.86%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -3.51%E -1.63%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-04 22:40 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -3.54%E -2.02%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -3.96%E -1.85%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-04 21:04 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -3.54%E -2.02%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -3.96%E -1.85%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-04 19:54 |
| Bet Right | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -5.19%E -3.02%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -3.96%E -1.85%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-04 21:20 |
| SportsBet | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -5.74%E -3.36%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -3.96%E -1.85%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 22:39 |
| Coolbet | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -4.64%E -2.68%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.86%E -2.29%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-04 21:10 |
| Betsson | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.19%E -3.02%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.86%E -2.29%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 20:04 |
| NordicBet | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.19%E -3.02%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.86%E -2.29%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 20:04 |
| PlayUp | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.19%E -3.02%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.86%E -2.29%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 20:04 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.19%E -3.02%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.86%E -2.29%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 19:50 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -7.39%E -4.40%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -4.86%E -2.29%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-04 20:49 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -7.39%E -4.40%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -4.86%E -2.29%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-04 20:49 |
| Fanatics | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.43%E -1.37%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.76%E -2.74%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-04 20:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.54%E -2.02%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.76%E -2.74%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 20:00 |
| Coral | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.54%E -2.02%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.76%E -2.74%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 20:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.54%E -2.02%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.76%E -2.74%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 19:49 |
| BetMGM | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.09%E -2.35%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.76%E -2.74%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 20:00 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.64%E -2.68%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.76%E -2.74%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 21:09 |
| William Hill | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.64%E -2.68%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.76%E -2.74%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 21:25 |
| BoyleSports | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.64%E -2.68%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.76%E -2.74%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 20:35 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.19%E -3.02%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.76%E -2.74%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-04 22:25 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.19%E -3.02%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.76%E -2.74%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-04 20:35 |
| Dabble (AU) | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.19%E -3.02%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.76%E -2.74%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-04 21:15 |
| Betway | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.74%E -3.36%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.76%E -2.74%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 22:40 |
| LeoVegas | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.29%E -3.70%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.76%E -2.74%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-04 22:40 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.29%E -3.70%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.76%E -2.74%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-04 21:04 |
| Grosvenor | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.76%EV -9.05%E -5.48%K -13.92%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.24%EV -6.65%E -3.20%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-04 20:50 |
| Neds | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -2.43%E -1.37%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -8.00%E -3.90%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 20:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -2.43%E -1.37%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -8.00%E -3.90%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 20:00 |
| Bet Victor | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.29%E -3.70%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.00%E -3.90%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-04 22:33 |
| betano_uk | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.29%E -3.70%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.00%E -3.90%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-04 22:34 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.29%E -3.70%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.00%E -3.90%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-04 21:00 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -6.84%E -4.05%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -8.00%E -3.90%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-04 22:13 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (10)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.56% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 44.44% | 0.0% | 2026-08-04 22:39 |
| Polymarket | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64% | 0.9% | 2026-08-04 22:40 |
| ProphetX | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.61% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 44.39% | 1.0% | 2026-08-04 22:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.86% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.14% | 1.1% | 2026-08-04 22:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.86% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.14% | 1.1% | 2026-08-04 22:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.86% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.14% | 1.1% | 2026-08-04 22:40 |
| Matchbook | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.64% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.36% | 1.5% | 2026-08-04 22:40 |
| Novig | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.64% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.36% | 1.5% | 2026-08-04 22:40 |
| Kalshi | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08% | 2.2% | 2026-08-04 21:50 |
| Smarkets | 1.76I 56.82%NM 55.56% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.44% | 2.3% | 2026-08-04 22:35 |