Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Cincinnati Reds v Philadelphia Phillies

Início: 2026-07-07 23:10 UTC

Final: Cincinnati Reds 1–4 Philadelphia Phillies

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

62 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Cincinnati Reds (Local)

Previsão 39.86%2.51odd justa
EV +3.64%
Vantagem +1.40%
Kelly +2.28%
Crescimento +0.083%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.60

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
36.12%39.77%39.85%41.56%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.252.402.402.6044.44%41.64%41.67%38.46%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Philadelphia Phillies (Visitante)

Previsão 60.14%1.66odd justa
EV -1.38%
Vantagem -0.839%
Kelly -2.15%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.64

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
58.44%60.23%60.15%63.88%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.471.591.591.6468.03%63.03%62.89%60.98%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Cincinnati Reds (Local): 39.86%; Philadelphia Phillies (Visitante): 60.14%. Para Cincinnati Reds (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 2.51. 1 casa de apostas oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 2.60, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +3.64%.

Odds das casas de apostas (62 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
Tipico (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV +3.64%E +1.40%K +2.28%G +0.083%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -11.60%E -7.89%K -24.68%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-07 08:10
Fliff🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -0.343%E -0.137%K -0.228%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -7.39%E -4.80%K -13.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-07 22:09
GTbets🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 39.36%EV -1.14%E -0.460%K -0.770%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.64%EV -3.18%E -1.97%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-07 23:00
LowVig.ag🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 39.46%EV -1.54%E -0.623%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.54%EV -3.18%E -1.97%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.6%2026-07-07 22:59
BetOnline.ag🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 39.46%EV -1.54%E -0.623%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.54%EV -3.18%E -1.97%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.6%2026-07-07 23:00
Everygame🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.80%EV -2.34%E -0.953%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 60.20%EV -2.58%E -1.59%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-07 22:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.51%EV -2.34%E -0.953%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.49%EV -3.78%E -2.36%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-07 22:50
theScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -2.34%E -0.953%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -4.38%E -2.76%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-07 23:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.34%E -0.953%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.58%E -3.56%K -9.80%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-07 15:05
Pinnacle🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 40.20%EV -2.73%E -1.12%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80%EV -1.38%E -0.839%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.0%2026-07-07 23:05
BetAnything🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 39.90%EV -2.73%E -1.12%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 60.10%EV -2.58%E -1.59%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.7%2026-07-07 23:05
1xBet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 40.29%EV -3.13%E -1.29%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.71%EV -1.38%E -0.839%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-07 22:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.70%EV -3.13%E -1.29%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.30%EV -3.78%E -2.36%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-07 22:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.70%EV -3.13%E -1.29%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.30%EV -3.78%E -2.36%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-07 22:50
Caesars🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.55%EV -3.13%E -1.29%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.45%EV -4.38%E -2.76%K -7.43%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-07 15:45
BetUS🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 40.10%EV -3.53%E -1.46%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.90%EV -2.58%E -1.59%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.1%2026-07-07 22:29
ReBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -4.33%E -1.80%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -3.18%E -1.97%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-07 23:05
MyBookie.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.33%E -1.80%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.78%E -2.36%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-07 23:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.33%E -1.80%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.78%E -2.36%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-07 21:10
TAB🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.33%E -1.80%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.78%E -2.36%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-07 10:29
Coral🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.33%E -1.80%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.78%E -2.36%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-07 23:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.33%E -1.80%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.78%E -2.36%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-07 23:00
Bovada🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.33%E -1.80%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.78%E -2.36%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-07 22:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.33%E -1.80%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.38%E -2.76%K -7.43%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-07 22:00
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.33%E -1.80%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.38%E -2.76%K -7.43%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-07 18:30
BetMGM🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.33%E -1.80%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.38%E -2.76%K -7.43%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-07 19:50
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.33%E -1.80%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.38%E -2.76%K -7.43%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-07 19:50
Bet Right🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.33%E -1.80%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.98%E -3.15%K -8.59%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-07 19:50
Neds🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.33%E -1.80%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.98%E -3.15%K -8.59%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-07 22:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.33%E -1.80%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.98%E -3.15%K -8.59%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-07 23:00
Coolbet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.33%E -1.80%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.98%E -3.15%K -8.59%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-07 20:49
Virgin Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.33%E -1.80%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.98%E -3.15%K -8.59%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-07 22:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.33%E -1.80%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.98%E -3.15%K -8.59%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-07 22:50
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.33%E -1.80%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.58%E -3.56%K -9.80%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-07 19:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.33%E -1.80%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.58%E -3.56%K -9.80%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-07 19:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.33%E -1.80%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.58%E -3.56%K -9.80%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-07 19:50
Casumo🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.33%E -1.80%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.58%E -3.56%K -9.80%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-07 22:50
BetRivers🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.33%E -1.80%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.58%E -3.56%K -9.80%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-07 22:50
Unibet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.33%E -1.80%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.58%E -3.56%K -9.80%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-07 22:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.33%E -1.80%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.58%E -3.56%K -9.80%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-07 22:50
TABtouch🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.33%E -1.80%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.58%E -3.56%K -9.80%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-07 22:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.33%E -1.80%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.58%E -3.56%K -9.80%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-07 22:50
betPARX🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.33%E -1.80%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.58%E -3.56%K -9.80%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-07 22:50
Bally Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.33%E -1.80%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.58%E -3.56%K -9.80%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-07 22:50
Dabble (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.33%E -1.80%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.79%E -4.38%K -12.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-07 18:40
DraftKings🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 40.10%EV -4.73%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.90%EV -3.78%E -2.36%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-07 19:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -5.13%E -2.15%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -2.58%E -1.59%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-07 19:50
FanDuel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -5.13%E -2.15%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -3.18%E -1.97%K -5.21%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-07 23:00
SportsBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.05%EV -5.13%E -2.15%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.95%EV -4.38%E -2.76%K -7.43%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-07 23:00
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.13%E -2.15%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.58%E -3.56%K -9.80%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-07 03:30
NordicBet🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.00%EV -5.52%E -2.33%K -4.03%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.00%EV -4.98%E -3.15%K -8.59%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-07 18:30
Betsson🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.00%EV -5.52%E -2.33%K -4.03%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.00%EV -4.98%E -3.15%K -8.59%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-07 18:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.25%EV -5.92%E -2.51%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.75%EV -4.38%E -2.76%K -7.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-07 22:45
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.32%E -2.69%K -4.68%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.78%E -2.36%K -6.30%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-07 22:10
LeoVegas🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.32%E -2.69%K -4.68%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.78%E -2.36%K -6.30%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-07 23:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -6.32%E -2.69%K -4.68%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -4.38%E -2.76%K -7.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-07 23:04
Unibet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -6.32%E -2.69%K -4.68%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -4.98%E -3.15%K -8.59%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-07 23:04
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -6.32%E -2.69%K -4.68%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -4.98%E -3.15%K -8.59%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-07 19:50
Grosvenor🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.32%E -2.69%K -4.68%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -6.79%E -4.38%K -12.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-07 22:50
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -8.32%E -3.62%K -6.40%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.58%E -3.56%K -9.80%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-07 22:59
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -8.32%E -3.62%K -6.40%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -6.19%E -3.97%K -11.05%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-07 23:05
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -10.31%E -4.58%K -8.25%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -3.78%E -2.36%K -6.30%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-07 22:59
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (10)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Kalshi2.56I 39.06%NM 39.05%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.95%0.0%2026-07-07 23:05
Polymarket2.53I 39.53%NM 39.47%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.53%0.1%2026-07-07 23:05
Matchbook2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24%0.6%2026-07-07 22:45
Novig2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24%0.6%2026-07-07 23:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24%0.6%2026-07-07 23:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24%0.6%2026-07-07 23:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24%0.6%2026-07-07 23:05
ProphetX2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%1.0%2026-07-07 22:35
BetOpenly2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26%2.3%2026-07-07 22:59
Smarkets2.46I 40.65%NM 39.56%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.44%2.8%2026-07-07 23:05