The School of Odds

Cincinnati Reds v Philadelphia Phillies

2026-07-09 23:11 — MLB

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Cincinnati Reds (Local)

Prediction 40.06%2.50fair odd
EV +0.541%
Edge +0.216%
Kelly +0.358%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 2.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.93%40.06%40.10%40.86%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.202.392.402.51MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
38.93%2.569Min
40.86%2.447Max
40.06%2.496Mean
40.10%2.494Median
40.06%2.496IQM
40.01%2.499Margin-weighted

Philadelphia Phillies (Visit)

Prediction 59.94%1.67fair odd
EV -1.09%
Edge -0.662%
Kelly -1.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.14%59.94%59.90%61.07%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.521.591.591.65MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
59.14%1.691Min
61.07%1.637Max
59.94%1.668Mean
59.90%1.669Median
59.94%1.668IQM
59.99%1.667Margin-weighted

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

BookmakerCincinnati Reds (Local) ▼Philadelphia Phillies (Visit)MarginUpdated
GTbets2.51I 39.84% NM 38.93%EV +0.541% E +0.216% K +0.358% G +0.002%1.60I 62.50% NM 61.07%EV -4.09% E -2.56% K -6.82% G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-09 02:14
BetOnline.ag2.50I 40.00% NM 39.02%EV +0.141% E +0.056% K +0.094% G +0.000%1.60I 62.50% NM 60.98%EV -4.09% E -2.56% K -6.82% G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-09 02:19
LowVig.ag2.50I 40.00% NM 39.02%EV +0.141% E +0.056% K +0.094% G +0.000%1.60I 62.50% NM 60.98%EV -4.09% E -2.56% K -6.82% G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-09 02:14
BetUS2.47I 40.49% NM 39.31%EV -1.06% E -0.430% K -0.722% G +0.000%1.60I 62.50% NM 60.69%EV -4.09% E -2.56% K -6.82% G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-09 02:19
BetAnything2.45I 40.82% NM 39.66%EV -1.86% E -0.760% K -1.28% G +0.000%1.61I 62.11% NM 60.34%EV -3.49% E -2.17% K -5.72% G +0.000%2.9%2026-07-09 01:34
Unibet (SE)2.43I 41.15% NM 39.70%EV -2.66% E -1.10% K -1.86% G +0.000%1.60I 62.50% NM 60.30%EV -4.09% E -2.56% K -6.82% G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-09 01:24
Unibet (NL)2.43I 41.15% NM 39.70%EV -2.66% E -1.10% K -1.86% G +0.000%1.60I 62.50% NM 60.30%EV -4.09% E -2.56% K -6.82% G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-09 01:25
Svenska Spel2.43I 41.15% NM 39.70%EV -2.66% E -1.10% K -1.86% G +0.000%1.60I 62.50% NM 60.30%EV -4.09% E -2.56% K -6.82% G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-09 01:25
Caesars2.43I 41.15% NM 39.55%EV -2.66% E -1.10% K -1.86% G +0.000%1.59I 62.89% NM 60.45%EV -4.69% E -2.95% K -7.95% G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-09 00:24
1xBet2.41I 41.49% NM 40.64%EV -3.46% E -1.44% K -2.46% G +0.000%1.65I 60.61% NM 59.36%EV -1.09% E -0.662% K -1.68% G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-09 00:40
Pinnacle2.41I 41.49% NM 40.49%EV -3.46% E -1.44% K -2.46% G +0.000%1.64I 60.98% NM 59.51%EV -1.69% E -1.03% K -2.64% G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-08 21:30
MyBookie.ag2.40I 41.67% NM 40.15%EV -3.86% E -1.61% K -2.76% G +0.000%1.61I 62.11% NM 59.85%EV -3.49% E -2.17% K -5.72% G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-08 23:15
theScore Bet2.40I 41.67% NM 40.15%EV -3.86% E -1.61% K -2.76% G +0.000%1.61I 62.11% NM 59.85%EV -3.49% E -2.17% K -5.72% G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-08 23:40
Coral2.40I 41.67% NM 40.00%EV -3.86% E -1.61% K -2.76% G +0.000%1.60I 62.50% NM 60.00%EV -4.09% E -2.56% K -6.82% G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-09 00:25
Ladbrokes (UK)2.40I 41.67% NM 40.00%EV -3.86% E -1.61% K -2.76% G +0.000%1.60I 62.50% NM 60.00%EV -4.09% E -2.56% K -6.82% G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-09 00:25
Fanatics2.40I 41.67% NM 39.85%EV -3.86% E -1.61% K -2.76% G +0.000%1.59I 62.89% NM 60.15%EV -4.69% E -2.95% K -7.95% G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-09 01:19
Fliff2.40I 41.67% NM 39.85%EV -3.86% E -1.61% K -2.76% G +0.000%1.59I 62.89% NM 60.15%EV -4.69% E -2.95% K -7.95% G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-09 01:45
PointsBet (AU)2.40I 41.67% NM 39.85%EV -3.86% E -1.61% K -2.76% G +0.000%1.59I 62.89% NM 60.15%EV -4.69% E -2.95% K -7.95% G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-08 19:40
BetMGM2.40I 41.67% NM 39.85%EV -3.86% E -1.61% K -2.76% G +0.000%1.59I 62.89% NM 60.15%EV -4.69% E -2.95% K -7.95% G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-09 00:25
Betway2.40I 41.67% NM 39.85%EV -3.86% E -1.61% K -2.76% G +0.000%1.59I 62.89% NM 60.15%EV -4.69% E -2.95% K -7.95% G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-09 01:19
Virgin Bet2.40I 41.67% NM 39.70%EV -3.86% E -1.61% K -2.76% G +0.000%1.58I 63.29% NM 60.30%EV -5.29% E -3.35% K -9.12% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 01:25
LiveScore Bet2.40I 41.67% NM 39.70%EV -3.86% E -1.61% K -2.76% G +0.000%1.58I 63.29% NM 60.30%EV -5.29% E -3.35% K -9.12% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 01:25
888sport2.40I 41.67% NM 39.55%EV -3.86% E -1.61% K -2.76% G +0.000%1.57I 63.69% NM 60.45%EV -5.89% E -3.75% K -10.33% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-08 19:35
Mr Green (SE)2.40I 41.67% NM 39.55%EV -3.86% E -1.61% K -2.76% G +0.000%1.57I 63.69% NM 60.45%EV -5.89% E -3.75% K -10.33% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-08 19:35
888sport (SE)2.40I 41.67% NM 39.55%EV -3.86% E -1.61% K -2.76% G +0.000%1.57I 63.69% NM 60.45%EV -5.89% E -3.75% K -10.33% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-08 19:35
Unibet2.40I 41.67% NM 39.55%EV -3.86% E -1.61% K -2.76% G +0.000%1.57I 63.69% NM 60.45%EV -5.89% E -3.75% K -10.33% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-09 01:25
TABtouch2.40I 41.67% NM 39.55%EV -3.86% E -1.61% K -2.76% G +0.000%1.57I 63.69% NM 60.45%EV -5.89% E -3.75% K -10.33% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-09 01:25
LeoVegas (SE)2.40I 41.67% NM 39.55%EV -3.86% E -1.61% K -2.76% G +0.000%1.57I 63.69% NM 60.45%EV -5.89% E -3.75% K -10.33% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-09 01:25
BetRivers2.40I 41.67% NM 39.55%EV -3.86% E -1.61% K -2.76% G +0.000%1.57I 63.69% NM 60.45%EV -5.89% E -3.75% K -10.33% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-09 01:25
Casumo2.40I 41.67% NM 39.55%EV -3.86% E -1.61% K -2.76% G +0.000%1.57I 63.69% NM 60.45%EV -5.89% E -3.75% K -10.33% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-09 01:25
ATG (SE)2.40I 41.67% NM 39.55%EV -3.86% E -1.61% K -2.76% G +0.000%1.57I 63.69% NM 60.45%EV -5.89% E -3.75% K -10.33% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-09 01:30
Bally Bet2.40I 41.67% NM 39.55%EV -3.86% E -1.61% K -2.76% G +0.000%1.57I 63.69% NM 60.45%EV -5.89% E -3.75% K -10.33% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-09 01:25
betPARX2.40I 41.67% NM 39.55%EV -3.86% E -1.61% K -2.76% G +0.000%1.57I 63.69% NM 60.45%EV -5.89% E -3.75% K -10.33% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-09 01:25
DraftKings2.39I 41.84% NM 40.10%EV -4.27% E -1.78% K -3.07% G +0.000%1.60I 62.50% NM 59.90%EV -4.09% E -2.56% K -6.82% G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-08 19:35
FanDuel2.38I 42.02% NM 40.35%EV -4.67% E -1.96% K -3.38% G +0.000%1.61I 62.11% NM 59.65%EV -3.49% E -2.17% K -5.72% G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-08 18:25
Unibet (UK)2.38I 42.02% NM 40.20%EV -4.67% E -1.96% K -3.38% G +0.000%1.60I 62.50% NM 59.80%EV -4.09% E -2.56% K -6.82% G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-08 19:35
Bet Right2.38I 42.02% NM 40.20%EV -4.67% E -1.96% K -3.38% G +0.000%1.60I 62.50% NM 59.80%EV -4.09% E -2.56% K -6.82% G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-08 19:35
Paddy Power2.38I 42.02% NM 39.75%EV -4.67% E -1.96% K -3.38% G +0.000%1.57I 63.69% NM 60.25%EV -5.89% E -3.75% K -10.33% G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-08 18:24
Bet Victor2.38I 42.02% NM 39.75%EV -4.67% E -1.96% K -3.38% G +0.000%1.57I 63.69% NM 60.25%EV -5.89% E -3.75% K -10.33% G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-08 19:34
William Hill2.38I 42.02% NM 39.75%EV -4.67% E -1.96% K -3.38% G +0.000%1.57I 63.69% NM 60.25%EV -5.89% E -3.75% K -10.33% G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-09 01:55
Bovada2.37I 42.19% NM 40.45%EV -5.07% E -2.14% K -3.70% G +0.000%1.61I 62.11% NM 59.55%EV -3.49% E -2.17% K -5.72% G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-08 21:40
Neds2.35I 42.55% NM 40.81%EV -5.87% E -2.50% K -4.35% G +0.000%1.62I 61.73% NM 59.19%EV -2.89% E -1.78% K -4.66% G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-09 01:29
Ladbrokes (AU)2.35I 42.55% NM 40.81%EV -5.87% E -2.50% K -4.35% G +0.000%1.62I 61.73% NM 59.19%EV -2.89% E -1.78% K -4.66% G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-09 01:30
Hard Rock Bet2.35I 42.55% NM 40.66%EV -5.87% E -2.50% K -4.35% G +0.000%1.61I 62.11% NM 59.34%EV -3.49% E -2.17% K -5.72% G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-08 19:55
PlayUp2.35I 42.55% NM 40.51%EV -5.87% E -2.50% K -4.35% G +0.000%1.60I 62.50% NM 59.49%EV -4.09% E -2.56% K -6.82% G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-08 18:39
ReBet2.35I 42.55% NM 40.36%EV -5.87% E -2.50% K -4.35% G +0.000%1.59I 62.89% NM 59.64%EV -4.69% E -2.95% K -7.95% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-08 23:15
Betr (AU)2.35I 42.55% NM 40.36%EV -5.87% E -2.50% K -4.35% G +0.000%1.59I 62.89% NM 59.64%EV -4.69% E -2.95% K -7.95% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-08 18:34
Winamax (DE)2.35I 42.55% NM 40.20%EV -5.87% E -2.50% K -4.35% G +0.000%1.58I 63.29% NM 59.80%EV -5.29% E -3.35% K -9.12% G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-08 19:35
Dabble (AU)2.35I 42.55% NM 40.20%EV -5.87% E -2.50% K -4.35% G +0.000%1.58I 63.29% NM 59.80%EV -5.29% E -3.35% K -9.12% G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-09 01:20
SportsBet2.35I 42.55% NM 40.05%EV -5.87% E -2.50% K -4.35% G +0.000%1.57I 63.69% NM 59.95%EV -5.89% E -3.75% K -10.33% G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-08 18:29
Grosvenor2.35I 42.55% NM 39.74%EV -5.87% E -2.50% K -4.35% G +0.000%1.55I 64.52% NM 60.26%EV -7.09% E -4.57% K -12.89% G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-09 01:30
Marathon Bet2.34I 42.74% NM 40.61%EV -6.27% E -2.68% K -4.68% G +0.000%1.60I 62.50% NM 59.39%EV -4.09% E -2.56% K -6.82% G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-09 00:29
Betclic (FR)2.34I 42.74% NM 40.31%EV -6.27% E -2.68% K -4.68% G +0.000%1.58I 63.29% NM 59.69%EV -5.29% E -3.35% K -9.12% G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-08 19:34
Betsson2.33I 42.92% NM 40.86%EV -6.67% E -2.86% K -5.01% G +0.000%1.61I 62.11% NM 59.14%EV -3.49% E -2.17% K -5.72% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-08 18:30
NordicBet2.33I 42.92% NM 40.86%EV -6.67% E -2.86% K -5.01% G +0.000%1.61I 62.11% NM 59.14%EV -3.49% E -2.17% K -5.72% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-08 18:29
Unibet (FR)2.25I 44.44% NM 40.79%EV -9.87% E -4.39% K -7.90% G +0.000%1.55I 64.52% NM 59.21%EV -7.09% E -4.57% K -12.89% G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-08 23:15
Winamax (FR)2.20I 45.45% NM 40.86%EV -11.88% E -5.40% K -9.90% G +0.000%1.52I 65.79% NM 59.14%EV -8.89% E -5.85% K -17.09% G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-08 19:35
BoyleSports1.67I 59.88% NM 56.28%EV -33.11% E -19.82% K -49.41% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 43.72%EV +28.88% E +13.43% K +25.11% G +7.25%6.4%2026-07-08 22:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (7)

BookmakerCincinnati Reds (Local)Philadelphia Phillies (Visit)Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.50I 40.00% NM 40.05%1.67I 59.88% NM 59.95%-0.1%2026-07-08 21:25
BetOpenly2.56I 39.06% NM 39.05%1.64I 60.98% NM 60.95%0.0%2026-07-09 02:25
Polymarket2.50I 40.00% NM 39.61%1.64I 60.98% NM 60.39%1.0%2026-07-08 23:00
Novig2.47I 40.49% NM 40.05%1.65I 60.61% NM 59.95%1.1%2026-07-09 01:21
ProphetX2.46I 40.65% NM 39.71%1.62I 61.73% NM 60.29%2.4%2026-07-09 01:00
Matchbook2.40I 41.67% NM 40.45%1.63I 61.35% NM 59.55%3.0%2026-07-08 23:55
Smarkets2.24I 44.64% NM 41.05%1.56I 64.10% NM 58.95%8.7%2026-07-08 21:25