Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Chicago Cubs v Toronto Blue Jays

2026-08-06 18:21 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Chicago Cubs (Local)

Predicción 47.76%2.09momio equitativo
EV +0.300%
Ventaja +0.143%
Kelly +0.273%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.05%47.59%47.78%48.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.922.012.002.1052.08%49.78%49.88%47.62%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Toronto Blue Jays (Visitante)

Predicción 52.24%1.91momio equitativo
EV -1.79%
Ventaja -0.953%
Kelly -2.04%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.88

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
51.59%52.41%52.22%53.95%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.721.811.821.8858.14%55.16%54.95%53.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Chicago Cubs (Local): 47.76%; Toronto Blue Jays (Visitante): 52.24%. Para Chicago Cubs (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.09. 1 corredor ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.10, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +0.300%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
GTbets🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%EV +0.300%E +0.143%K +0.273%G +0.001%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%EV -4.40%E -2.41%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-06 00:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 46.68%EV -0.178%E -0.085%K -0.163%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.32%EV -4.40%E -2.41%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-06 00:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 46.68%EV -0.178%E -0.085%K -0.163%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.32%EV -4.40%E -2.41%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-06 00:40
BetUS🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 46.68%EV -0.178%E -0.085%K -0.163%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.32%EV -4.40%E -2.41%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-06 00:40
FanDuel🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%EV -0.655%E -0.315%K -0.607%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75%EV -6.49%E -3.63%K -8.22%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-05 23:35
1xBet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 47.58%EV -1.61%E -0.782%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 52.42%EV -2.31%E -1.24%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-06 01:05
Caesars🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.70%EV -2.09%E -1.02%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 52.30%EV -2.31%E -1.24%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-06 00:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.70%EV -2.09%E -1.02%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 52.30%EV -2.31%E -1.24%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-05 20:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.09%E -1.02%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.97%E -3.32%K -7.46%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-06 00:40
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.09%E -1.02%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.97%E -3.32%K -7.46%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-06 01:00
SportsBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -2.09%E -1.02%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -8.06%E -4.58%K -10.61%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-05 23:35
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -2.09%E -1.02%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -8.58%E -4.90%K -11.44%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-05 23:35
Pinnacle🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 48.08%EV -3.04%E -1.50%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.92%EV -1.79%E -0.953%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-05 22:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -3.52%E -1.74%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -4.40%E -2.41%K -5.31%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-06 01:30
BetRivers🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -3.52%E -1.74%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -4.40%E -2.41%K -5.31%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-06 01:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -3.52%E -1.74%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -4.40%E -2.41%K -5.31%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-06 01:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -3.52%E -1.74%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -4.40%E -2.41%K -5.31%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-06 01:30
Bet Right🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -3.52%E -1.74%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -4.93%E -2.71%K -6.01%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-06 00:40
Casumo🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -3.52%E -1.74%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -6.49%E -3.63%K -8.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-06 01:30
Unibet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -3.52%E -1.74%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -6.49%E -3.63%K -8.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-06 01:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -3.52%E -1.74%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -6.49%E -3.63%K -8.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-06 01:30
betPARX🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -3.52%E -1.74%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -6.49%E -3.63%K -8.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-06 01:30
Bally Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -3.52%E -1.74%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -6.49%E -3.63%K -8.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-06 01:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -3.52%E -1.74%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -6.49%E -3.63%K -8.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-06 01:30
TABtouch🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -3.52%E -1.74%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -7.02%E -3.94%K -9.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-06 01:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV -3.52%E -1.74%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV -7.54%E -4.26%K -9.79%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-06 01:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV -3.52%E -1.74%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV -7.54%E -4.26%K -9.79%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-06 01:30
MyBookie.ag🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 47.93%EV -4.00%E -1.99%K -3.96%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.07%EV -3.36%E -1.82%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-05 19:59
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.48%E -2.24%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.40%E -2.41%K -5.31%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-05 20:00
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.48%E -2.24%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.40%E -2.41%K -5.31%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-06 01:00
BetMGM🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.48%E -2.24%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.40%E -2.41%K -5.31%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-06 00:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.48%E -2.24%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.40%E -2.41%K -5.31%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-06 01:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -4.48%E -2.24%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -5.45%E -3.01%K -6.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-06 00:55
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.48%E -2.24%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.97%E -3.32%K -7.46%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-05 19:35
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.48%E -2.24%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.97%E -3.32%K -7.46%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-05 19:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.48%E -2.24%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.97%E -3.32%K -7.46%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-06 00:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.48%E -2.24%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.97%E -3.32%K -7.46%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-05 19:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.48%E -2.24%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.97%E -3.32%K -7.46%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-05 19:50
DraftKings🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 48.04%EV -4.95%E -2.49%K -5.00%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.96%EV -3.88%E -2.11%K -4.62%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-05 20:00
BetAnything🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -5.43%E -2.74%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -3.36%E -1.82%K -3.95%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-06 01:30
PlayUp🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.43%E -2.74%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.40%E -2.41%K -5.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-05 20:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.43%E -2.74%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.40%E -2.41%K -5.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-05 20:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.43%E -2.74%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.40%E -2.41%K -5.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-06 00:55
Neds🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.43%E -2.74%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.40%E -2.41%K -5.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-06 00:55
NordicBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.43%E -2.74%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.40%E -2.41%K -5.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-06 00:50
Betsson🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.43%E -2.74%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.40%E -2.41%K -5.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-06 00:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -5.43%E -2.74%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -4.93%E -2.71%K -6.01%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-05 20:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.88%EV -5.91%E -3.00%K -6.09%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.12%EV -5.45%E -3.01%K -6.73%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-05 20:00
Grosvenor🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.74%EV -6.39%E -3.26%K -6.65%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.26%EV -10.15%E -5.90%K -14.10%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-06 01:30
Fliff🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -6.86%E -3.52%K -7.23%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.40%E -2.41%K -5.31%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-05 21:45
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -6.86%E -3.52%K -7.23%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.40%E -2.41%K -5.31%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-06 00:25
betano_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.86%E -3.52%K -7.23%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.97%E -3.32%K -7.46%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-05 19:59
Bet Victor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.86%E -3.52%K -7.23%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.97%E -3.32%K -7.46%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-05 20:00
ReBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.86%E -3.52%K -7.23%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.97%E -3.32%K -7.46%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-05 19:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.98%EV -7.82%E -4.05%K -8.41%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.02%EV -7.02%E -3.94%K -9.00%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-06 00:24
Winamax (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.11%EV -8.30%E -4.32%K -9.02%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.89%EV -7.02%E -3.94%K -9.00%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-05 20:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Polymarket2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%1.0%2026-08-05 23:35
Kalshi2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%1.1%2026-08-05 21:45
Novig2.06I 48.54%NM 47.98%1.90I 52.63%NM 52.02%1.2%2026-08-06 01:00
ProphetX2.01I 49.75%NM 48.20%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.80%3.2%2026-08-06 01:05
Matchbook2.00I 50.00%NM 48.19%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.81%3.8%2026-08-06 00:45
Smarkets1.89I 52.91%NM 48.08%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.92%10.1%2026-08-05 20:00