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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Chicago Cubs v Pittsburgh Pirates

Inicio: 2026-09-13 18:21 UTC

Final: Chicago Cubs 3–4 Pittsburgh Pirates

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

61 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Chicago Cubs (Local)

Predicción 60.09%1.66momio equitativo
EV -0.851%
Ventaja -0.516%
Kelly -1.31%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.44%60.01%59.93%61.56%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.531.591.601.6565.36%62.83%62.50%60.61%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Pittsburgh Pirates (Visitante)

Predicción 39.91%2.51momio equitativo
EV +0.971%
Ventaja +0.384%
Kelly +0.635%
Crecimiento +0.006%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.53

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.44%39.99%40.07%41.56%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.202.362.352.5345.45%42.33%42.55%39.53%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Chicago Cubs (Local): 60.09%; Pittsburgh Pirates (Visitante): 39.91%. Para Pittsburgh Pirates (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.51. 4 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.53, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.971%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (61 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
BetUS🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 61.56%EV -5.06%E -3.20%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 38.44%EV +0.971%E +0.384%K +0.635%G +0.006%2.8%2026-09-13 18:15
GTbets🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 61.17%EV -3.86%E -2.41%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.83%EV +0.572%E +0.227%K +0.376%G +0.002%2.2%2026-09-13 18:15
LowVig.ag🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 61.07%EV -3.86%E -2.41%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 38.93%EV +0.173%E +0.069%K +0.114%G +0.000%2.3%2026-09-13 18:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 61.07%EV -3.86%E -2.41%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 38.93%EV +0.173%E +0.069%K +0.114%G +0.000%2.3%2026-09-13 18:15
Pinnacle🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.83%EV -3.25%E -2.02%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.17%EV -0.226%E -0.090%K -0.151%G +0.000%2.1%2026-09-13 18:15
Caesars🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%EV -5.66%E -3.60%K -9.93%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%EV -1.02%E -0.413%K -0.692%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-13 17:20
BetAnything🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -3.25%E -2.02%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -2.22%E -0.907%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-13 17:05
Fanatics🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.66%E -3.60%K -9.93%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.22%E -0.907%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-13 18:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.66%E -3.60%K -9.93%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.22%E -0.907%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-13 18:10
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.66%E -3.60%K -9.93%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.22%E -0.907%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-13 18:19
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.66%E -3.60%K -9.93%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.22%E -0.907%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-13 18:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.66%E -3.60%K -9.93%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.22%E -0.907%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-13 18:20
DraftKings🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.46%EV -8.06%E -5.27%K -15.21%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.54%EV -2.62%E -1.07%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-13 18:20
Bovada🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.75%EV -5.66%E -3.60%K -9.93%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.25%EV -3.02%E -1.24%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-13 18:14
1xBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 59.36%EV -0.851%E -0.516%K -1.31%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 40.64%EV -3.82%E -1.58%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.1%2026-09-13 16:25
ReBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -3.25%E -2.02%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -4.22%E -1.76%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-13 17:01
theScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -3.25%E -2.02%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -4.22%E -1.76%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-13 16:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -3.25%E -2.02%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -4.22%E -1.76%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-13 17:20
TAB🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.86%E -2.41%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.22%E -1.76%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-13 18:00
Fliff🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.46%E -2.80%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.22%E -1.76%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-13 18:20
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.66%E -3.60%K -9.93%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.22%E -1.76%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-13 18:10
Dabble (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.86%E -4.43%K -12.47%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.22%E -1.76%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 18:19
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.86%E -4.43%K -12.47%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.22%E -1.76%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 16:30
Bet Right🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -3.86%E -2.41%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -5.02%E -2.11%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-13 18:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -5.06%E -3.20%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -5.02%E -2.11%K -3.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-13 18:10
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.66%E -3.60%K -9.93%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.02%E -2.11%K -3.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-13 17:05
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.00%EV -5.06%E -3.20%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.00%EV -5.41%E -2.28%K -3.95%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-13 18:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -2.65%E -1.64%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -6.21%E -2.64%K -4.60%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-13 18:20
888sport🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.86%E -2.41%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.21%E -2.64%K -4.60%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-13 17:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.86%E -2.41%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.21%E -2.64%K -4.60%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-13 17:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.86%E -2.41%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.21%E -2.64%K -4.60%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-13 17:40
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.86%E -2.41%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.21%E -2.64%K -4.60%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-13 17:50
Neds🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.86%E -2.41%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.21%E -2.64%K -4.60%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-13 18:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.86%E -2.41%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.21%E -2.64%K -4.60%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-13 18:19
Coolbet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.86%E -2.41%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.21%E -2.64%K -4.60%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-13 18:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -4.46%E -2.80%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -6.21%E -2.64%K -4.60%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-13 17:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -5.06%E -3.20%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -6.21%E -2.64%K -4.60%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-13 18:09
FanDuel🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.69%EV -5.06%E -3.20%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.31%EV -6.61%E -2.83%K -4.93%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-13 18:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.84%EV -2.05%E -1.26%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.16%EV -7.01%E -3.01%K -5.27%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-13 17:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.84%EV -2.05%E -1.26%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.16%EV -7.01%E -3.01%K -5.27%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-13 17:25
Casumo🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -2.65%E -1.64%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -7.41%E -3.19%K -5.61%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-13 17:25
Bally Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -2.65%E -1.64%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -7.41%E -3.19%K -5.61%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-13 17:25
Unibet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -2.65%E -1.64%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -7.41%E -3.19%K -5.61%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-13 17:35
TABtouch🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -3.25%E -2.02%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -7.41%E -3.19%K -5.61%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-13 17:35
Betway🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -3.25%E -2.02%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -8.21%E -3.57%K -6.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-13 18:19
Winamax (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -3.86%E -2.41%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -8.21%E -3.57%K -6.31%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-13 18:20
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.66%E -3.60%K -9.93%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -8.21%E -3.57%K -6.31%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 16:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -6.86%E -4.43%K -12.47%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -8.21%E -3.57%K -6.31%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-13 18:09
betano_uk🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -6.86%E -4.43%K -12.47%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -8.21%E -3.57%K -6.31%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-13 18:10
NordicBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.33%EV -5.66%E -3.60%K -9.93%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.67%EV -8.61%E -3.76%K -6.67%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-13 18:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -3.25%E -2.02%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -9.01%E -3.95%K -7.04%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-13 18:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -3.25%E -2.02%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -9.01%E -3.95%K -7.04%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-13 18:20
betPARX🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -3.25%E -2.02%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -9.01%E -3.95%K -7.04%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-13 18:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%EV -3.86%E -2.41%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -9.01%E -3.95%K -7.04%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-13 17:25
SportsBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -3.86%E -2.41%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -10.20%E -4.53%K -8.16%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 18:20
Bet Victor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -3.86%E -2.41%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -10.20%E -4.53%K -8.16%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 18:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -3.86%E -2.41%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -10.20%E -4.53%K -8.16%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 18:20
Grosvenor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -3.86%E -2.41%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -10.20%E -4.53%K -8.16%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 18:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -5.06%E -3.20%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -10.20%E -4.53%K -8.16%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-13 18:20
BetRivers🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.68%EV -5.66%E -3.60%K -9.93%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.32%EV -11.00%E -4.93%K -8.94%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-13 18:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.51%EV -6.26%E -4.01%K -11.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -12.20%E -5.55%K -10.17%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-13 18:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
BetOpenly◎1.65I 60.61%NM 60.71%2.55I 39.22%NM 39.29%-0.2%2026-09-13 18:19
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90%0.4%2026-09-13 18:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09%0.7%2026-09-13 18:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09%0.7%2026-09-13 18:20
Kalshi◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.0%2026-09-13 16:50
Polymarket◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.0%2026-09-13 17:01
Matchbook◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.02%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.98%1.8%2026-09-13 18:20
Smarkets◎1.60I 62.50%NM 60.98%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.02%2.5%2026-09-13 18:15
ProphetX◎1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%3.7%2026-09-13 18:20
Novig◎1.52I 65.79%NM 60.21%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.79%9.3%2026-09-13 18:20