The School of Odds

Chicago Cubs v Minnesota Twins

2026-07-18 18:21 UTC — MLB

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Chicago Cubs (Local)

Prediction 56.94%1.76fair odd
EV +0.214%
Edge +0.122%
Kelly +0.282%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 1.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.78%56.93%56.85%57.50%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.601.681.671.7663%60%60%57%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Minnesota Twins (Visit)

Prediction 43.06%2.32fair odd
EV -0.962%
Edge -0.418%
Kelly -0.740%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.50%43.07%43.15%44.22%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.052.202.202.3049%45%45%43%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
1xBet1.76I 56.82%NM 55.78%EV +0.214%E +0.122%K +0.282%G +0.001%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.22%EV -4.41%E -1.98%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.9%2026-07-17 18:09
LowVig.ag1.70I 58.82%NM 57.50%EV -3.20%E -1.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.50%EV -0.962%E -0.418%K -0.740%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-17 17:29
BetOnline.ag1.70I 58.82%NM 57.50%EV -3.20%E -1.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.50%EV -0.962%E -0.418%K -0.740%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-17 17:29
FanDuel1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.20%E -1.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -5.27%E -2.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-17 18:29
PointsBet (AU)1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.77%E -2.23%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.11%E -1.38%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-17 18:09
MyBookie.ag1.69I 59.17%NM 56.89%EV -3.77%E -2.23%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.11%EV -3.98%E -1.78%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-17 18:09
Caesars1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -3.77%E -2.23%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -4.41%E -1.98%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-17 18:04
Unibet (UK)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.34%E -2.58%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.27%E -2.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-17 18:04
PlayUp1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.34%E -2.58%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.27%E -2.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-17 18:09
Bet Right1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.34%E -2.58%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.27%E -2.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-17 18:09
SportsBet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -4.34%E -2.58%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-17 18:29
Fanatics1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.91%E -2.94%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.11%E -1.38%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-17 18:09
Betway1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.91%E -2.94%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.11%E -1.38%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-17 18:24
DraftKings1.67I 59.88%NM 57.29%EV -4.91%E -2.94%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.71%EV -3.55%E -1.58%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-17 18:04
Fliff1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.91%E -2.94%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.27%E -2.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 17:39
ReBet1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.91%E -2.94%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.27%E -2.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 18:24
betano_uk1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.91%E -2.94%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.27%E -2.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 18:10
Bet Victor1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.91%E -2.94%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.27%E -2.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 18:04
888sport1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.91%E -2.94%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.27%E -2.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 18:04
Betr (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.91%E -2.94%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.27%E -2.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 18:10
888sport (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.91%E -2.94%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.27%E -2.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 18:04
Mr Green (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.91%E -2.94%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.27%E -2.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 18:04
William Hill1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.91%E -2.94%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.27%E -2.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 18:14
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.91%E -2.94%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-17 17:29
Winamax (DE)1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -5.48%E -3.30%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -5.27%E -2.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-17 18:04
Betclic (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 56.77%EV -5.48%E -3.30%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -6.13%E -2.81%K -5.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-17 18:04
Unibet (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -7.76%E -4.79%K -12.51%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.55%EV -9.57%E -4.56%K -8.70%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-17 18:25
Winamax (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 56.16%EV -8.90%E -5.56%K -14.83%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.84%EV -11.73%E -5.72%K -11.17%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-17 18:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.75I 57.14%NM 57.11%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.89%0.1%2026-07-17 17:50
Polymarket1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.1%2026-07-17 18:25
Novig1.71I 58.48%NM 57.36%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.64%2.0%2026-07-17 20:09
Smarkets1.61I 62.11%NM 56.37%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.63%10.2%2026-07-17 18:04