L’École des cotes

Chicago Cubs v Minnesota Twins

Coup d’envoi : 2026-07-18 18:21 UTC

Score final : Chicago Cubs 6–2 Minnesota Twins

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

64 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Chicago Cubs (Local)

Prévision 58.51%1.71cote équitable
EV -0.535%
Avantage -0.315%
Kelly -0.765%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.70

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
56.85%58.40%58.61%59.85%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.581.641.641.7063.29%60.94%60.98%58.82%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Minnesota Twins (Visiteur)

Prévision 41.49%2.41cote équitable
EV +0.824%
Avantage +0.339%
Kelly +0.576%
Croissance +0.005%

avec la cote maximale 2.43

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
40.15%41.60%41.39%43.15%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.162.282.292.4346.30%43.77%43.57%41.15%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (64 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
GTbets1.64I 60.98%NM 59.71%EV -4.05%E -2.47%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 40.29%EV +0.824%E +0.339%K +0.576%G +0.005%2.1%2026-07-18 18:19
LowVig.ag1.64I 60.98%NM 59.51%EV -4.05%E -2.47%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 40.49%EV -0.006%E -0.002%K -0.004%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-18 18:20
BetOnline.ag1.64I 60.98%NM 59.51%EV -4.05%E -2.47%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 40.49%EV -0.006%E -0.002%K -0.004%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-18 18:20
Caesars1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -5.80%E -3.60%K -9.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -0.421%E -0.175%K -0.301%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-18 17:50
BetUS1.65I 60.61%NM 59.06%EV -3.46%E -2.10%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.94%EV -1.25%E -0.525%K -0.906%G +0.000%2.6%2026-07-18 18:05
Everygame1.65I 60.61%NM 59.06%EV -3.46%E -2.10%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.94%EV -1.25%E -0.525%K -0.906%G +0.000%2.6%2026-07-18 18:05
BetAnything1.64I 60.98%NM 59.20%EV -4.05%E -2.47%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.80%EV -1.25%E -0.525%K -0.906%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-18 18:20
Coral1.60I 62.50%NM 59.70%EV -6.39%E -3.99%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.30%EV -1.67%E -0.703%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-18 17:50
Ladbrokes (UK)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.70%EV -6.39%E -3.99%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.30%EV -1.67%E -0.703%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-18 17:50
Pinnacle1.68I 59.52%NM 58.42%EV -1.71%E -1.02%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.58%EV -2.08%E -0.882%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.9%2026-07-18 18:10
1xBet1.68I 59.52%NM 58.31%EV -1.71%E -1.02%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.69%EV -2.50%E -1.06%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-18 18:05
MyBookie.ag1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -4.63%E -2.84%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -2.50%E -1.06%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-18 18:03
ReBet1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.22%E -3.22%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.50%E -1.06%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-18 18:00
Fanatics1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.80%E -3.60%K -9.51%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -2.50%E -1.06%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-18 18:00
DraftKings1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.80%E -3.60%K -9.51%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -2.50%E -1.06%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-18 17:49
BetMGM1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.80%E -3.60%K -9.51%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -2.50%E -1.06%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-18 17:50
FanDuel1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -4.05%E -2.47%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -3.74%E -1.61%K -2.83%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-18 18:00
PointsBet (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.29%E -1.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -4.57%E -1.99%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-18 17:50
Hard Rock Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.46%E -2.10%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.57%E -1.99%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-18 18:00
TAB1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.46%E -2.10%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.57%E -1.99%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-18 17:55
PlayUp1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -4.63%E -2.84%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -4.57%E -1.99%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-18 18:00
Bet Right1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -4.63%E -2.84%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -4.57%E -1.99%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-18 18:05
888sport1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.22%E -3.22%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.57%E -1.99%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-18 18:10
Betr (AU)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.22%E -3.22%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.57%E -1.99%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-18 18:05
888sport (SE)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.22%E -3.22%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.57%E -1.99%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-18 18:05
Mr Green (SE)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.22%E -3.22%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.57%E -1.99%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-18 18:10
Ladbrokes (AU)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.22%E -3.22%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.57%E -1.99%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-18 17:50
Neds1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.22%E -3.22%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.57%E -1.99%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-18 17:50
BoyleSports1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.22%E -3.22%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.57%E -1.99%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-18 18:00
Coolbet1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.22%E -3.22%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.57%E -1.99%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-18 18:05
Unibet (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.39%E -3.99%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.57%E -1.99%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-18 18:05
Tipico (DE)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.39%E -3.99%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.57%E -1.99%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-18 17:50
SportsBet1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -4.63%E -2.84%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -4.98%E -2.18%K -3.86%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-18 17:55
Svenska Spel1.70I 58.82%NM 57.29%EV -0.535%E -0.315%K -0.765%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.71%EV -5.40%E -2.37%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.7%2026-07-18 18:15
Marathon Bet1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.63%E -2.84%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.40%E -2.37%K -4.22%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-18 18:04
Bovada1.66I 60.24%NM 57.76%EV -2.88%E -1.73%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.24%EV -5.81%E -2.56%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-18 18:05
NordicBet1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -4.63%E -2.84%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -5.81%E -2.56%K -4.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-18 17:53
Betsson1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -4.63%E -2.84%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -5.81%E -2.56%K -4.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-18 17:55
Unibet (UK)1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -1.71%E -1.02%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -6.64%E -2.95%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-18 18:20
Unibet (NL)1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -1.71%E -1.02%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -6.64%E -2.95%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-18 18:15
Unibet (SE)1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -1.71%E -1.02%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -6.64%E -2.95%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-18 18:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.29%E -1.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -6.64%E -2.95%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-18 17:55
Dabble (AU)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.05%E -2.47%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.64%E -2.95%K -5.32%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-18 18:10
Paddy Power1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.39%E -3.99%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.64%E -2.95%K -5.32%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-18 17:55
Betclic (FR)1.58I 63.29%NM 58.64%EV -7.56%E -4.78%K -13.03%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 41.36%EV -7.06%E -3.15%K -5.69%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-18 18:05
Casumo1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -2.29%E -1.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -7.47%E -3.35%K -6.08%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-18 18:15
LeoVegas (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -2.29%E -1.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -7.47%E -3.35%K -6.08%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-18 18:20
Unibet1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -2.29%E -1.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -7.47%E -3.35%K -6.08%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-18 18:15
Bally Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -2.29%E -1.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -7.47%E -3.35%K -6.08%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-18 18:15
betPARX1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -2.29%E -1.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -7.47%E -3.35%K -6.08%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-18 18:20
Virgin Bet1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -2.88%E -1.73%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -7.47%E -3.35%K -6.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-18 18:15
TABtouch1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -2.88%E -1.73%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -7.47%E -3.35%K -6.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-18 18:15
LiveScore Bet1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -2.88%E -1.73%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -7.47%E -3.35%K -6.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-18 18:15
ATG (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.46%E -2.10%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -7.47%E -3.35%K -6.08%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-18 18:20
Fliff1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.29%E -1.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.72%E -3.96%K -7.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 17:55
William Hill1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.29%E -1.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.72%E -3.96%K -7.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 18:14
Betway1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.29%E -1.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.72%E -3.96%K -7.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 18:19
Winamax (DE)1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -2.88%E -1.73%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -8.72%E -3.96%K -7.27%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-18 18:20
betano_uk1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -3.46%E -2.10%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -8.72%E -3.96%K -7.27%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-18 18:09
Bet Victor1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -3.46%E -2.10%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -8.72%E -3.96%K -7.27%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-18 18:08
Winamax (FR)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -4.05%E -2.47%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -8.72%E -3.96%K -7.27%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-18 18:20
LeoVegas1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.22%E -3.22%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -8.72%E -3.96%K -7.27%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-18 18:20
Grosvenor1.63I 61.35%NM 57.22%EV -4.63%E -2.84%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.78%EV -9.55%E -4.38%K -8.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-18 18:20
BetRivers1.63I 61.35%NM 56.99%EV -4.63%E -2.84%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.01%EV -10.38%E -4.80%K -8.95%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-18 18:20
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (10)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.69I 59.17%NM 58.88%2.42I 41.32%NM 41.12%0.5%2026-07-18 18:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.69I 59.17%NM 58.88%2.42I 41.32%NM 41.12%0.5%2026-07-18 18:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.69I 59.17%NM 58.88%2.42I 41.32%NM 41.12%0.5%2026-07-18 18:20
Novig1.68I 59.52%NM 59.22%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78%0.5%2026-07-18 18:18
Kalshi1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.2%2026-07-18 17:55
Polymarket1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.2%2026-07-18 18:20
Smarkets1.67I 59.88%NM 58.97%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.03%1.5%2026-07-18 18:20
Matchbook1.67I 59.88%NM 58.97%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.03%1.5%2026-07-18 18:20
BetOpenly1.67I 59.88%NM 58.46%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.54%2.4%2026-07-18 18:15
ProphetX1.68I 59.52%NM 58.00%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.00%2.6%2026-07-18 18:20