Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Chicago Cubs v Atlanta Braves

2026-09-16 23:41 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Chicago Cubs (Local)

Predicción 56.27%1.78momio equitativo
EV -1.53%
Ventaja -0.875%
Kelly -2.04%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
55.56%56.30%56.27%57.14%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.601.691.681.7562.50%59.19%59.52%57.14%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Atlanta Braves (Visitante)

Predicción 43.73%2.29momio equitativo
EV -1.60%
Ventaja -0.712%
Kelly -1.28%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.86%43.70%43.73%44.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.002.182.202.2550.00%45.84%45.45%44.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Chicago Cubs (Local): 56.27%; Atlanta Braves (Visitante): 43.73%. Para Chicago Cubs (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 1.78. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 1.75, con un valor esperado de -1.53%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92%EV -1.53%E -0.875%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08%EV -2.91%E -1.31%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.2%2026-09-16 02:20
GTbets🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 56.39%EV -2.09%E -1.20%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.61%EV -1.60%E -0.712%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.9%2026-09-15 19:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06%EV -2.09%E -1.20%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94%EV -2.91%E -1.31%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.5%2026-09-15 19:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06%EV -2.09%E -1.20%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94%EV -2.91%E -1.31%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.5%2026-09-15 19:40
BetUS🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06%EV -2.09%E -1.20%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94%EV -2.91%E -1.31%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.5%2026-09-16 01:00
BetAnything🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.84%EV -2.09%E -1.20%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.16%EV -3.79%E -1.72%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-16 02:30
Neds🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -3.22%E -1.87%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -5.97%E -2.78%K -5.20%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-15 20:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -3.22%E -1.87%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -5.97%E -2.78%K -5.20%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-15 20:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.78%E -2.21%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.79%E -1.72%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-15 19:40
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.78%E -2.21%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.79%E -1.72%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-15 21:45
Betway🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.78%E -2.21%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.79%E -1.72%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-15 23:45
Caesars🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -3.78%E -2.21%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -4.66%E -2.14%K -3.95%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-15 20:10
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.78%E -2.21%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.97%E -2.78%K -5.20%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-15 19:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.78%E -2.21%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.97%E -2.78%K -5.20%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-15 23:05
MyBookie.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.35%E -2.56%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.79%E -1.72%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-16 01:45
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.35%E -2.56%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.79%E -1.72%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-15 20:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.35%E -2.56%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.79%E -1.72%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-15 20:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -4.35%E -2.56%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -4.66%E -2.14%K -3.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-15 20:10
Bet Right🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -4.35%E -2.56%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -4.66%E -2.14%K -3.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-15 20:10
DraftKings🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -4.35%E -2.56%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -4.66%E -2.14%K -3.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-16 00:25
betfred_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.35%E -2.56%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.97%E -2.78%K -5.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-15 19:45
PlayUp🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.35%E -2.56%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.97%E -2.78%K -5.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-15 19:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.35%E -2.56%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.97%E -2.78%K -5.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-16 02:05
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -4.91%E -2.90%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -2.91%E -1.31%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-15 19:40
Bovada🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.67%EV -4.91%E -2.90%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.33%EV -3.35%E -1.52%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-15 21:50
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.91%E -2.90%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -3.79%E -1.72%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-16 01:35
Fliff🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -4.91%E -2.90%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -5.97%E -2.78%K -5.20%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-15 19:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.47%E -3.26%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.79%E -1.72%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-16 01:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.47%E -3.26%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.79%E -1.72%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-16 01:20
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.47%E -3.26%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.79%E -1.72%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-16 01:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.47%E -3.26%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.79%E -1.72%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-16 01:20
Casumo🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.47%E -3.26%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.79%E -1.72%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-16 01:20
Unibet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.47%E -3.26%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.79%E -1.72%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-16 01:21
TABtouch🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.47%E -3.26%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.79%E -1.72%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-16 01:20
Bally Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.47%E -3.26%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.79%E -1.72%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-16 01:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.47%E -3.26%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.79%E -1.72%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-16 01:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.47%E -3.26%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.79%E -1.72%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-16 01:20
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.47%E -3.26%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.79%E -1.72%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-16 01:20
Coolbet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.47%E -3.26%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.79%E -1.72%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-16 02:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.25%EV -5.47%E -3.26%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.75%EV -5.54%E -2.56%K -4.77%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-15 22:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.47%E -3.26%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.97%E -2.78%K -5.20%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-15 19:50
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.03%E -3.61%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.79%E -1.72%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-15 19:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.03%E -3.61%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.79%E -1.72%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-15 19:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.03%E -3.61%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.79%E -1.72%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-15 19:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.03%E -3.61%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.79%E -1.72%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-15 19:45
ReBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.03%E -3.61%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.97%E -2.78%K -5.20%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-15 23:44
Bet Victor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.03%E -3.61%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.97%E -2.78%K -5.20%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-15 19:43
betano_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.03%E -3.61%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.97%E -2.78%K -5.20%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-16 01:38
SportsBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.77%EV -6.60%E -3.97%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -4.66%E -2.14%K -3.95%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-15 19:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.66%EV -6.60%E -3.97%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.34%EV -5.10%E -2.35%K -4.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-16 01:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.66%EV -6.60%E -3.97%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.34%EV -5.10%E -2.35%K -4.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-16 01:20
Paddy Power🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.16%E -4.34%K -11.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -3.79%E -1.72%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-15 19:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.15%EV -7.72%E -4.71%K -12.06%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.85%EV -8.16%E -3.89%K -7.42%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-15 23:45
Grosvenor🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.53%EV -8.28%E -5.08%K -13.15%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.47%EV -7.29%E -3.44%K -6.51%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-16 01:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.56%EV -9.97%E -6.23%K -16.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.44%EV -12.53%E -6.27%K -12.53%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-15 23:45
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Polymarket1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%0.9%2026-09-15 21:05
Kalshi1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.2%2026-09-16 01:45
Novig1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.2%2026-09-16 02:30
ProphetX1.76I 56.82%NM 55.89%2.23I 44.84%NM 44.11%1.7%2026-09-16 02:30
Smarkets1.65I 60.61%NM 55.53%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.47%9.1%2026-09-16 00:35