Kansas City Chiefs v Indianapolis Colts

2026-09-21 00:20 — NFL

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis)

Option 1: Kansas City Chiefs (Local)

Odds

1.3076.92%Min

1.3374.91%Mean

1.3374.91%Median

1.3772.99%Max

Consensus probabilities

70.02%1.428Min

72.92%1.371Max

71.47%1.399Mean

71.47%1.399Median

71.47%1.399IQM

71.31%1.402Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.37 under the IQM model: 71.47%

EV -2.09%Edge -1.52%Kelly -5.64%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Indianapolis Colts (Visit)

Odds

3.2031.25%Min

3.3529.85%Mean

3.3529.85%Median

3.5028.57%Max

Consensus probabilities

27.08%3.692Min

29.98%3.336Max

28.53%3.505Mean

28.53%3.505Median

28.53%3.505IQM

28.69%3.486Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.50 under the IQM model: 28.53%

EV -0.142%Edge -0.041%Kelly -0.057%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Kansas City Chiefs (Local) ▼	Indianapolis Colts (Visit)	Margin	Updated
DraftKings	1.37I 72.99% NM 70.02%EV -2.09% E -1.52% K -5.64% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 29.98%EV -8.70% E -2.72% K -3.96% G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-07-03 05:05
Bet Right	1.35I 74.07% NM 70.65%EV -3.52% E -2.60% K -10.05% G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77% NM 29.35%EV -7.28% E -2.24% K -3.23% G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-05-26 02:11
Caesars	1.30I 76.92% NM 72.92%EV -7.09% E -5.45% K -23.63% G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57% NM 27.08%EV -0.142% E -0.041% K -0.057% G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-05-15 00:33

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth