Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kansas City Chiefs v Indianapolis Colts

2026-09-21 00:20 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

72%

28%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kansas City Chiefs (Local)

Prediction 71.94%1.39fair odd

EV -2.88%

Edge -2.13%

Kelly -8.22%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

70.97%71.94%71.94%72.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.301.321.321.3576.92%75.57%75.76%74.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Indianapolis Colts (Visit)

Prediction 28.06%3.56fair odd

EV -1.80%

Edge -0.514%

Kelly -0.719%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.08%28.06%28.06%29.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.303.403.403.5030.30%29.41%29.41%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Kansas City Chiefs (Local): 71.94%; Indianapolis Colts (Visit): 28.06%. For Indianapolis Colts (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.56. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.50, with an expected value of -1.80%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -2.88%E -2.13%K -8.22%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -7.41%E -2.25%K -3.22%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-08-06 22:35
Betr (AU)🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.04%E -3.82%K -15.74%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -4.60%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-08-06 22:35
Caesars🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.48%E -4.98%K -21.58%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -1.80%E -0.514%K -0.719%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-05-15 00:33

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.