Language:English
Kansas City Chiefs v Indianapolis Colts
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Kansas City Chiefs (Local)
Prediction 70.39%1.42fair odd
EV -1.46%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -3.64%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.18%70.26%70.50%72.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.191.351.351.4084.03%74.28%74.07%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Indianapolis Colts (Visit)
Prediction 29.61%3.38fair odd
EV +3.64%
Edge +1.04%
Kelly +1.46%
Growth +0.053%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.69%29.74%29.50%31.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.253.253.5033.33%30.80%30.77%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kansas City Chiefs (Local): 70.39%; Indianapolis Colts (Visit): 29.61%. For Indianapolis Colts (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.38. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.64%.
Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.31%EV -5.68%E -4.24%K -16.70%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.69%EV +3.64%E +1.04%K +1.46%G +0.053% | 3.2% | 2026-09-20 09:29 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.31%EV -5.68%E -4.24%K -16.70%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.69%EV +3.64%E +1.04%K +1.46%G +0.053% | 3.2% | 2026-09-20 09:29 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.31%EV -5.68%E -4.24%K -16.70%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.69%EV +3.64%E +1.04%K +1.46%G +0.053% | 3.2% | 2026-09-20 09:29 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.31%EV -5.68%E -4.24%K -16.70%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.69%EV +3.64%E +1.04%K +1.46%G +0.053% | 3.2% | 2026-09-20 09:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -6.38%E -4.80%K -19.34%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV +2.16%E +0.626%K +0.881%G +0.019% | 4.2% | 2026-09-20 09:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.13%EV -2.86%E -2.07%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.87%EV +0.677%E +0.199%K +0.282%G +0.002% | 1.9% | 2026-09-21 00:14 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -6.38%E -4.80%K -19.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV +0.677%E +0.199%K +0.282%G +0.002% | 4.6% | 2026-09-20 19:29 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -7.09%E -5.37%K -22.15%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV +0.677%E +0.199%K +0.282%G +0.002% | 5.2% | 2026-09-20 09:29 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -7.09%E -5.37%K -22.15%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV +0.677%E +0.199%K +0.282%G +0.002% | 5.2% | 2026-09-20 09:29 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -7.09%E -5.37%K -22.15%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV +0.677%E +0.199%K +0.282%G +0.002% | 5.2% | 2026-09-20 09:29 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -7.09%E -5.37%K -22.15%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV +0.677%E +0.199%K +0.282%G +0.002% | 5.2% | 2026-09-20 09:29 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.13%EV -4.27%E -3.14%K -11.86%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%EV -0.803%E -0.240%K -0.342%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-21 00:09 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.13%EV -4.27%E -3.14%K -11.86%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%EV -0.803%E -0.240%K -0.342%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-21 00:19 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.28%EV -4.97%E -3.69%K -14.21%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.72%EV -0.803%E -0.240%K -0.342%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-20 20:24 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.89%EV -7.79%E -5.95%K -25.13%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.11%EV -0.803%E -0.240%K -0.342%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-21 00:19 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.91%EV -3.57%E -2.60%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 29.09%EV -1.10%E -0.329%K -0.470%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-20 23:34 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -4.27%E -3.14%K -11.86%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV -2.28%E -0.692%K -0.993%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-20 23:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -4.27%E -3.14%K -11.86%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV -2.28%E -0.692%K -0.993%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-20 22:09 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -4.27%E -3.14%K -11.86%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV -2.28%E -0.692%K -0.993%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-21 00:17 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -4.97%E -3.69%K -14.21%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -2.28%E -0.692%K -0.993%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-21 00:09 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -4.97%E -3.69%K -14.21%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -2.28%E -0.692%K -0.993%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-20 20:29 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.38%E -4.80%K -19.34%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -2.28%E -0.692%K -0.993%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-20 05:04 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.38%E -4.80%K -19.34%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -2.28%E -0.692%K -0.993%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-20 04:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.38%E -4.80%K -19.34%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -2.28%E -0.692%K -0.993%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-20 05:05 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.69%EV -4.27%E -3.14%K -11.86%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 29.31%EV -2.88%E -0.877%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-20 13:03 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.69%EV -4.27%E -3.14%K -11.86%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 29.31%EV -2.88%E -0.877%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-21 00:19 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.69%EV -4.27%E -3.14%K -11.86%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 29.31%EV -2.88%E -0.877%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-21 00:19 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.11%EV -2.16%E -1.55%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 29.89%EV -3.47%E -1.06%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-09-21 00:10 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -4.27%E -3.14%K -11.86%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -3.76%E -1.16%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-21 00:14 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -4.27%E -3.14%K -11.86%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -3.76%E -1.16%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-21 00:14 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -4.27%E -3.14%K -11.86%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -3.76%E -1.16%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-21 00:14 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.97%E -3.69%K -14.21%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -3.76%E -1.16%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-20 05:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.97%E -3.69%K -14.21%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -3.76%E -1.16%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-21 00:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.97%E -3.69%K -14.21%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -3.76%E -1.16%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-21 00:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.97%E -3.69%K -14.21%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -3.76%E -1.16%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-21 00:09 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.90%EV -6.38%E -4.80%K -19.34%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 29.10%EV -4.06%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-21 00:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -4.27%E -3.14%K -11.86%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -5.24%E -1.64%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-21 00:14 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -6.38%E -4.80%K -19.34%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -5.24%E -1.64%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-20 05:04 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -2.86%E -2.07%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -6.73%E -2.14%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-20 12:39 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -3.57%E -2.60%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -6.73%E -2.14%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-21 00:09 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.16%EV -5.68%E -4.24%K -16.70%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -6.73%E -2.14%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-20 05:05 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -2.86%E -2.07%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -8.21%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-20 23:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -3.57%E -2.60%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -8.21%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-21 00:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -3.57%E -2.60%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -8.21%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-21 00:14 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -3.57%E -2.60%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -8.21%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-21 00:14 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -3.57%E -2.60%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -8.21%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-21 00:14 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.27%E -3.14%K -11.86%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -8.21%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-21 00:19 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.27%E -3.14%K -11.86%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -8.21%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-21 00:14 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.27%E -3.14%K -11.86%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -8.21%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-21 00:19 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.29%EV -7.79%E -5.95%K -25.13%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -8.21%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-20 12:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.45%EV -8.49%E -6.53%K -28.31%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -8.21%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-21 00:19 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.45%EV -8.49%E -6.53%K -28.31%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -8.21%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-21 00:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 71.93%EV -16.24%E -13.64%K -85.46%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.07%EV -9.69%E -3.18%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 16.8% | 2026-09-20 09:29 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -1.46%E -1.04%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -11.17%E -3.72%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-21 00:19 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.27%E -3.14%K -11.86%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -11.17%E -3.72%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-21 00:19 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.27%E -3.14%K -11.86%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -11.17%E -3.72%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-21 00:19 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -7.09%E -5.37%K -22.15%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -11.17%E -3.72%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-20 23:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.57% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43% | 0.5% | 2026-09-21 00:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.57% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43% | 0.5% | 2026-09-21 00:15 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.28% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72% | 0.9% | 2026-09-20 21:09 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.28% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72% | 0.9% | 2026-09-19 21:54 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.28% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72% | 0.9% | 2026-09-21 00:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.72% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28% | 1.0% | 2026-09-21 00:19 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.72% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28% | 1.0% | 2026-09-21 00:19 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 71.28% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.72% | 2.4% | 2026-09-21 00:19 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 71.10% | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.90% | 2.7% | 2026-09-21 00:19 |