Buffalo Bills v New England Patriots

2026-10-04 17:00 UTC — NFL

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Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

61%

39%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Buffalo Bills (Local)

Prediction 61.36%1.63fair odd

EV -0.604%

Edge -0.373%

Kelly -0.974%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

59.30%61.36%61.36%63.41%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.501.561.561.6267%64%64%62%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

New England Patriots (Visit)

Prediction 38.64%2.59fair odd

EV +0.476%

Edge +0.183%

Kelly +0.297%

Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

36.59%38.64%38.64%40.70%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.362.482.482.6042%40%40%38%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Caesars	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -7.97%E -5.31%K -15.93%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV +0.476%E +0.183%K +0.297%G +0.001%	5.1%	2026-05-16 18:53
DraftKings	1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -0.604%E -0.373%K -0.974%G +0.000%	2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -8.80%E -3.73%K -6.47%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-07-06 11:15

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.