Language:English
Buffalo Bills v New England Patriots
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Buffalo Bills (Local)
Prediction 73.53%1.36fair odd
EV -1.47%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -4.32%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.34
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.79%73.31%73.55%75.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.291.291.3484.75%77.32%77.52%74.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
New England Patriots (Visit)
Prediction 26.47%3.78fair odd
EV +1.12%
Edge +0.292%
Kelly +0.396%
Growth +0.004%
assuming max odds 3.82
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.95%26.69%26.45%29.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.603.603.8231.75%27.79%27.78%26.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Buffalo Bills (Local): 73.53%; New England Patriots (Visit): 26.47%. For New England Patriots (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.78. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.82, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.12%.
Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.05%EV -6.62%E -5.21%K -24.51%G +0.000% | 3.82I 26.18%NM 24.95%EV +1.12%E +0.292%K +0.396%G +0.004% | 4.9% | 2026-10-04 15:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 74.22%EV -2.94%E -2.23%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.78%EV +0.588%E +0.155%K +0.210%G +0.001% | 2.1% | 2026-10-04 16:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -5.15%E -3.99%K -17.75%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV +0.588%E +0.155%K +0.210%G +0.001% | 3.8% | 2026-10-04 15:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -5.15%E -3.99%K -17.75%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -0.736%E -0.196%K -0.268%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-04 16:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -5.15%E -3.99%K -17.75%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -0.736%E -0.196%K -0.268%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-04 16:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -5.15%E -3.99%K -17.75%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -0.736%E -0.196%K -0.268%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-04 16:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -5.15%E -3.99%K -17.75%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -0.736%E -0.196%K -0.268%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-04 16:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -5.15%E -3.99%K -17.75%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -0.736%E -0.196%K -0.268%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-04 16:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.71%EV -2.94%E -2.23%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.29%EV -2.06%E -0.557%K -0.763%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-10-03 18:41 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.71%EV -2.94%E -2.23%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.29%EV -2.06%E -0.557%K -0.763%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-10-03 18:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.71%EV -2.94%E -2.23%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.29%EV -2.06%E -0.557%K -0.763%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-10-03 18:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.71%EV -2.94%E -2.23%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.29%EV -2.06%E -0.557%K -0.763%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-10-03 18:45 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.00%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.00%EV -2.06%E -0.557%K -0.763%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-02 17:22 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -5.15%E -3.99%K -17.75%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -2.06%E -0.557%K -0.763%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-04 16:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -5.15%E -3.99%K -17.75%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -2.06%E -0.557%K -0.763%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-04 15:40 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -5.15%E -3.99%K -17.75%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -2.06%E -0.557%K -0.763%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-04 16:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -5.15%E -3.99%K -17.75%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -2.06%E -0.557%K -0.763%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-04 15:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -5.15%E -3.99%K -17.75%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -2.06%E -0.557%K -0.763%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-04 15:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.88%E -4.60%K -21.01%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -2.06%E -0.557%K -0.763%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 16:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.88%E -4.60%K -21.01%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -2.06%E -0.557%K -0.763%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 16:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.88%E -4.60%K -21.01%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -2.06%E -0.557%K -0.763%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 16:55 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -7.35%E -5.84%K -28.28%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -2.06%E -0.557%K -0.763%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-04 17:00 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.10%EV -5.15%E -3.99%K -17.75%G +0.000% | 3.69I 27.10%NM 25.90%EV -2.32%E -0.630%K -0.864%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-04 15:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.14%EV -5.88%E -4.60%K -21.01%G +0.000% | 3.67I 27.25%NM 25.86%EV -2.85%E -0.778%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-04 16:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.14%EV -5.88%E -4.60%K -21.01%G +0.000% | 3.67I 27.25%NM 25.86%EV -2.85%E -0.778%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-04 16:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.59%EV -3.68%E -2.81%K -11.86%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.41%EV -3.38%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-04 11:44 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -5.15%E -3.99%K -17.75%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -3.38%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-04 17:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -3.68%E -2.81%K -11.86%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-01 19:53 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-03 18:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-03 18:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-03 18:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-03 18:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-04 16:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-04 16:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-04 16:40 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.15%E -3.99%K -17.75%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-04 02:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.15%E -3.99%K -17.75%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-04 15:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.15%E -3.99%K -17.75%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-04 16:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.97%EV -2.21%E -1.66%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 3.59I 27.86%NM 27.03%EV -4.97%E -1.38%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-10-04 17:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.55%EV -5.88%E -4.60%K -21.01%G +0.000% | 3.56I 28.09%NM 26.45%EV -5.77%E -1.62%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-04 16:59 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.60%EV -1.47%E -1.10%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.40%EV -6.03%E -1.70%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-10-04 16:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.90%EV -2.94%E -2.23%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.10%EV -6.03%E -1.70%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-04 16:58 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -5.88%E -4.60%K -21.01%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -6.03%E -1.70%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-04 17:00 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -2.94%E -2.23%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -7.35%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-04 17:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -7.35%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-02 18:39 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -7.35%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -7.35%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -7.35%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -5.88%E -4.60%K -21.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -7.35%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-04 17:00 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -8.09%E -6.47%K -32.35%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -7.35%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-04 16:13 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -8.09%E -6.47%K -32.35%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -7.35%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-04 16:14 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -2.21%E -1.66%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -8.68%E -2.52%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-02 22:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -10.00%E -2.94%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-04 17:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -10.00%E -2.94%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-30 12:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.12%EV -8.09%E -6.47%K -32.35%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -10.00%E -2.94%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-04 13:05 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.89%EV -3.68%E -2.81%K -11.86%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.11%EV -11.32%E -3.38%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-02 17:24 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -13.97%E -4.30%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-04 17:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 73.06%EV -13.24%E -11.22%K -73.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.94%EV -15.29%E -4.78%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 16.0% | 2026-10-03 18:41 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.79%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -16.62%E -5.28%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-04 16:34 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (10)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 74.04% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.96% | 0.0% | 2026-10-03 23:05 |
| Novig◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 74.18% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82% | 0.6% | 2026-10-04 16:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 74.18% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82% | 0.6% | 2026-10-04 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 74.18% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82% | 0.6% | 2026-10-04 17:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 74.18% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82% | 0.6% | 2026-10-04 16:55 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.28% | 4.02I 24.88%NM 24.72% | 0.6% | 2026-10-04 16:59 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.57% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.43% | 0.8% | 2026-10-04 17:00 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73% | 1.1% | 2026-10-04 15:59 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.07% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.93% | 1.5% | 2026-10-04 17:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.96% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.04% | 2.4% | 2026-10-04 17:00 |