Buffalo Bills v New England Patriots

2026-10-04 17:00 — NFL

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis)

Option 1: Buffalo Bills (Local)

Odds

1.5066.67%Min

1.5664.10%Mean

1.5664.10%Median

1.6261.73%Max

Consensus probabilities

59.30%1.686Min

63.41%1.577Max

61.36%1.630Mean

61.36%1.630Median

61.36%1.630IQM

61.17%1.635Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.62 under the IQM model: 61.36%

EV -0.604%Edge -0.373%Kelly -0.974%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: New England Patriots (Visit)

Odds

2.3642.37%Min

2.4840.32%Mean

2.4840.32%Median

2.6038.46%Max

Consensus probabilities

36.59%2.733Min

40.70%2.457Max

38.64%2.588Mean

38.64%2.588Median

38.64%2.588IQM

38.83%2.575Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.60 under the IQM model: 38.64%

EV +0.476%Edge +0.183%Kelly +0.297%Growth +0.001%

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Buffalo Bills (Local)	New England Patriots (Visit) ▼	Margin	Updated
Caesars	1.50I 66.67% NM 63.41%EV -7.97% E -5.31% K -15.93% G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46% NM 36.59%EV +0.476% E +0.183% K +0.297% G +0.001%	5.1%	2026-05-16 18:53
DraftKings	1.62I 61.73% NM 59.30%EV -0.604% E -0.373% K -0.974% G +0.000%	2.36I 42.37% NM 40.70%EV -8.80% E -3.73% K -6.47% G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-06-22 22:37

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth