Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Buffalo Bills v New England Patriots

2026-10-04 17:00 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

61%

39%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Buffalo Bills (Local)

Prediction 61.36%1.63fair odd

EV -0.604%

Edge -0.373%

Kelly -0.974%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

59.30%61.36%61.36%63.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.501.561.551.6266.67%64.24%64.52%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New England Patriots (Visit)

Prediction 38.64%2.59fair odd

EV +0.476%

Edge +0.183%

Kelly +0.297%

Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

36.59%38.64%38.64%40.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.362.472.452.6042.37%40.49%40.82%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Buffalo Bills (Local): 61.36%; New England Patriots (Visit): 38.64%. For New England Patriots (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.59. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 2.60, producing a positive expected value of +0.476%.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Caesars🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -7.97%E -5.31%K -15.93%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV +0.476%E +0.183%K +0.297%G +0.001%	5.1%	2026-05-16 18:53
Betr (AU)🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.90%E -3.16%K -8.91%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.32%E -2.17%K -3.67%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-05 17:20
DraftKings🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -0.604%E -0.373%K -0.974%G +0.000%	2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -8.80%E -3.73%K -6.47%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-07-06 11:15

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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