The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Buffalo Bills v New England Patriots

2026-10-04 17:00 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Buffalo Bills (Local)

Prediction 61.71%1.62fair odd
EV -1.27%
Edge -0.793%
Kelly -2.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.00%61.71%61.71%63.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.541.531.6066.67%64.79%65.36%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New England Patriots (Visit)

Prediction 38.29%2.61fair odd
EV -0.439%
Edge -0.169%
Kelly -0.274%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.59%38.29%38.29%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.502.502.6041.67%40.00%40.00%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Buffalo Bills (Local): 61.71%; New England Patriots (Visit): 38.29%. For New England Patriots (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.61. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.60, with an expected value of -0.439%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -1.27%E -0.793%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -8.10%E -3.37%K -5.78%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-01 01:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.59%E -3.65%K -10.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.27%E -1.71%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-01 01:44
Caesars🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -7.44%E -4.96%K -14.88%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -0.439%E -0.169%K -0.274%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-16 18:53
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket◎1.19I 84.03%NM 58.68%1.69I 59.17%NM 41.32%43.2%2026-09-03 19:25