Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Buffalo Bills v New England Patriots

Inicio: 2026-10-04 17:02 UTC

Final: Buffalo Bills 26–29 New England Patriots

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (21 en el análisis )

74%

26%

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Buffalo Bills (Local)

Predicción 73.53%1.36momio equitativo

EV -1.47%

Ventaja -1.10%

Kelly -4.32%

Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.34

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

70.79%73.31%73.55%75.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

1.181.291.291.3484.75%77.32%77.52%74.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

New England Patriots (Visitante)

Predicción 26.47%3.78momio equitativo

EV +1.12%

Ventaja +0.292%

Kelly +0.396%

Crecimiento +0.004%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.82

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

24.95%26.69%26.45%29.21%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

3.153.603.603.8231.75%27.79%27.78%26.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Buffalo Bills (Local): 73.53%; New England Patriots (Visitante): 26.47%. Para New England Patriots (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.78. 3 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.82, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.12%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

Corredor	Local	Visitante ▼	Margen	Actualizado
SportsBet🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 75.05%EV -6.62%E -5.21%K -24.51%G +0.000%	3.82I 26.18%NM 24.95%EV +1.12%E +0.292%K +0.396%G +0.004%	4.9%	2026-10-04 15:40
Coolbet🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 74.22%EV -2.94%E -2.23%K -9.19%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 25.78%EV +0.588%E +0.155%K +0.210%G +0.001%	2.1%	2026-10-04 16:50
FanDuel🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -5.15%E -3.99%K -17.75%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV +0.588%E +0.155%K +0.210%G +0.001%	3.8%	2026-10-04 15:40
DraftKings🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -5.15%E -3.99%K -17.75%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -0.736%E -0.196%K -0.268%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-10-04 16:10
BetMGM🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -5.15%E -3.99%K -17.75%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -0.736%E -0.196%K -0.268%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-10-04 16:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -5.15%E -3.99%K -17.75%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -0.736%E -0.196%K -0.268%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-10-04 16:50
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -5.15%E -3.99%K -17.75%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -0.736%E -0.196%K -0.268%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-10-04 16:45
LowVig.ag🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -5.15%E -3.99%K -17.75%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -0.736%E -0.196%K -0.268%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-10-04 16:45
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 73.71%EV -2.94%E -2.23%K -9.19%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 26.29%EV -2.06%E -0.557%K -0.763%G +0.000%	2.8%	2026-10-03 18:41
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 73.71%EV -2.94%E -2.23%K -9.19%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 26.29%EV -2.06%E -0.557%K -0.763%G +0.000%	2.8%	2026-10-03 18:45
Svenska Spel🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 73.71%EV -2.94%E -2.23%K -9.19%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 26.29%EV -2.06%E -0.557%K -0.763%G +0.000%	2.8%	2026-10-03 18:40
ATG (SE)🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 73.71%EV -2.94%E -2.23%K -9.19%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 26.29%EV -2.06%E -0.557%K -0.763%G +0.000%	2.8%	2026-10-03 18:45
Everygame🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 74.00%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 26.00%EV -2.06%E -0.557%K -0.763%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-10-02 17:22
Bet Right🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -5.15%E -3.99%K -17.75%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -2.06%E -0.557%K -0.763%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-10-04 16:15
Paddy Power🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -5.15%E -3.99%K -17.75%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -2.06%E -0.557%K -0.763%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-10-04 15:40
GTbets🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -5.15%E -3.99%K -17.75%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -2.06%E -0.557%K -0.763%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-10-04 16:10
theScore Bet🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -5.15%E -3.99%K -17.75%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -2.06%E -0.557%K -0.763%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-10-04 15:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -5.15%E -3.99%K -17.75%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -2.06%E -0.557%K -0.763%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-10-04 15:40
Betr (AU)🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.88%E -4.60%K -21.01%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -2.06%E -0.557%K -0.763%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-10-04 16:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.88%E -4.60%K -21.01%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -2.06%E -0.557%K -0.763%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-10-04 16:55
Coral🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.88%E -4.60%K -21.01%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -2.06%E -0.557%K -0.763%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-10-04 16:55
Fliff🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -7.35%E -5.84%K -28.28%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -2.06%E -0.557%K -0.763%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-10-04 17:00
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.10%EV -5.15%E -3.99%K -17.75%G +0.000%	3.69I 27.10%NM 25.90%EV -2.32%E -0.630%K -0.864%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-10-04 15:35
NordicBet🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.14%EV -5.88%E -4.60%K -21.01%G +0.000%	3.67I 27.25%NM 25.86%EV -2.85%E -0.778%K -1.07%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-10-04 16:54
Betsson🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.14%EV -5.88%E -4.60%K -21.01%G +0.000%	3.67I 27.25%NM 25.86%EV -2.85%E -0.778%K -1.07%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-10-04 16:55
BetUS🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 73.59%EV -3.68%E -2.81%K -11.86%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 26.41%EV -3.38%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-10-04 11:44
Fanatics🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -5.15%E -3.99%K -17.75%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -3.38%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-10-04 17:00
Caesars🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -3.68%E -2.81%K -11.86%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-10-01 19:53
BetRivers🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-10-03 18:45
Unibet🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-10-03 18:45
betPARX🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-10-03 18:40
Bally Bet🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-10-03 18:45
Neds🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-10-04 16:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-10-04 16:10
BetAnything🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-10-04 16:40
betfred_uk🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.15%E -3.99%K -17.75%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-04 02:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.15%E -3.99%K -17.75%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-04 15:05
TAB🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.15%E -3.99%K -17.75%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-04 16:10
Pinnacle🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 72.97%EV -2.21%E -1.66%K -6.68%G +0.000%	3.59I 27.86%NM 27.03%EV -4.97%E -1.38%K -1.92%G +0.000%	3.0%	2026-10-04 17:00
Marathon Bet🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 73.55%EV -5.88%E -4.60%K -21.01%G +0.000%	3.56I 28.09%NM 26.45%EV -5.77%E -1.62%K -2.25%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-10-04 16:59
ReBet🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 72.60%EV -1.47%E -1.10%K -4.32%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 27.40%EV -6.03%E -1.70%K -2.36%G +0.000%	2.8%	2026-10-04 16:05
Bovada🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 72.90%EV -2.94%E -2.23%K -9.19%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 27.10%EV -6.03%E -1.70%K -2.36%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-10-04 16:58
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -5.88%E -4.60%K -21.01%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -6.03%E -1.70%K -2.36%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-10-04 17:00
Dabble (AU)🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -2.94%E -2.23%K -9.19%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -7.35%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-10-04 17:00
888sport🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -7.35%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-10-02 18:39
888sport (SE)🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -7.35%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-10-02 18:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -7.35%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-10-02 18:40
William Hill🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -7.35%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-10-02 18:40
LeoVegas🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -5.88%E -4.60%K -21.01%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -7.35%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-10-04 17:00
betano_uk🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -8.09%E -6.47%K -32.35%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -7.35%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-10-04 16:13
Bet Victor🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -8.09%E -6.47%K -32.35%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -7.35%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-10-04 16:14
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -2.21%E -1.66%K -6.68%G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -8.68%E -2.52%K -3.54%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-10-02 22:55
PlayUp🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -10.00%E -2.94%K -4.17%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-10-04 17:00
Tipico (DE)🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -10.00%E -2.94%K -4.17%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-09-30 12:30
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 73.12%EV -8.09%E -6.47%K -32.35%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -10.00%E -2.94%K -4.17%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-10-04 13:05
Codere (IT)🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 71.89%EV -3.68%E -2.81%K -11.86%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 28.11%EV -11.32%E -3.38%K -4.82%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-10-02 17:24
Betway🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -13.97%E -4.30%K -6.21%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-10-04 17:00
PMU (FR)🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 73.06%EV -13.24%E -11.22%K -73.53%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 26.94%EV -15.29%E -4.78%K -6.95%G +0.000%	16.0%	2026-10-03 18:41
Betclic (FR)🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 70.79%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -16.62%E -5.28%K -7.73%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-10-04 16:34

Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

Corredor	Local	Visitante	Margen ▲	Actualizado
Kalshi◎	1.35I 74.07%NM 74.04%	3.85I 25.97%NM 25.96%	0.0%	2026-10-03 23:05
Novig◎	1.34I 74.63%NM 74.18%	3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82%	0.6%	2026-10-04 16:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.34I 74.63%NM 74.18%	3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82%	0.6%	2026-10-04 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.34I 74.63%NM 74.18%	3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82%	0.6%	2026-10-04 17:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.34I 74.63%NM 74.18%	3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82%	0.6%	2026-10-04 16:55
BetOpenly◎	1.32I 75.76%NM 75.28%	4.02I 24.88%NM 24.72%	0.6%	2026-10-04 16:59
Matchbook◎	1.33I 75.19%NM 74.57%	3.90I 25.64%NM 25.43%	0.8%	2026-10-04 17:00
Polymarket◎	1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27%	3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%	1.1%	2026-10-04 15:59
ProphetX◎	1.33I 75.19%NM 74.07%	3.80I 26.32%NM 25.93%	1.5%	2026-10-04 17:00
Smarkets◎	1.32I 75.76%NM 73.96%	3.75I 26.67%NM 26.04%	2.4%	2026-10-04 17:00