Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Buffalo Bills v Detroit Lions

2026-09-18 00:15 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Buffalo Bills (Local)

Prediction 59.30%1.69fair odd
EV -0.967%
Edge -0.579%
Kelly -1.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.93%59.21%59.29%60.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.601.611.6764.52%62.48%62.11%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Detroit Lions (Visit)

Prediction 40.70%2.46fair odd
EV -2.32%
Edge -0.968%
Kelly -1.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.75%40.79%40.71%42.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.292.342.352.4043.67%42.72%42.55%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Buffalo Bills (Local): 59.30%; Detroit Lions (Visit): 40.70%. For Buffalo Bills (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.69. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.67, with an expected value of -0.967%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -0.967%E -0.579%K -1.44%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -6.39%E -2.78%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-14 08:49
Caesars🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -3.34%E -2.05%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -4.36%E -1.85%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-26 20:23
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -3.93%E -2.43%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -3.95%E -1.67%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-06 22:35
theScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -4.52%E -2.81%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -2.32%E -0.968%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-06 22:34
Unibet (NL)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.52%E -2.81%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.36%E -1.85%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-12 17:55
Unibet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.52%E -2.81%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.36%E -1.85%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-12 17:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.52%E -2.81%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.36%E -1.85%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-12 17:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.52%E -2.81%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.36%E -1.85%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-12 17:54
Bally Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.52%E -2.81%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.36%E -1.85%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-12 17:55
betPARX🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.52%E -2.81%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.36%E -1.85%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-12 17:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.52%E -2.81%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.36%E -1.85%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-12 17:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.52%E -2.81%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.36%E -1.85%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-12 17:55
BetRivers🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -4.52%E -2.81%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -5.17%E -2.22%K -3.89%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-12 17:54
ReBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.60%EV -5.12%E -3.20%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.40%EV -3.95%E -1.67%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-06 22:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.12%E -3.20%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.36%E -1.85%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-20 21:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -5.71%E -3.59%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -4.36%E -1.85%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-07 01:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -6.30%E -3.99%K -10.87%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -6.39%E -2.78%K -4.92%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-24 02:20
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.90%E -4.39%K -12.10%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.14%E -1.32%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-14 17:00
LeoVegas🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -8.08%E -5.21%K -14.70%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -6.39%E -2.78%K -4.92%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-03 08:59
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.64%EV -8.08%E -5.21%K -14.70%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.36%EV -6.80%E -2.97%K -5.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-07 13:35
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.64%EV -8.08%E -5.21%K -14.70%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.36%EV -6.80%E -2.97%K -5.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-07 13:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket1.59I 62.89%NM 59.44%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.56%5.8%2026-08-07 18:40
Smarkets1.56I 64.10%NM 59.16%2.26I 44.25%NM 40.84%8.4%2026-08-06 22:35