Language:English
Buffalo Bills v Detroit Lions
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Buffalo Bills (Local)
Prediction 68.19%1.47fair odd
EV +4.32%
Edge +2.83%
Kelly +8.16%
Growth +0.353%
assuming max odds 1.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.95%68.09%68.12%70.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.391.401.5378.13%71.71%71.43%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Detroit Lions (Visit)
Prediction 31.81%3.14fair odd
EV +3.40%
Edge +1.05%
Kelly +1.51%
Growth +0.051%
assuming max odds 3.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.36%31.91%31.88%37.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.993.003.2538.46%33.43%33.33%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Buffalo Bills (Local): 68.19%; Detroit Lions (Visit): 31.81%. For Buffalo Bills (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.47. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.53, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.32%.
Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV +4.32%E +2.83%K +8.16%G +0.353% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -17.28%E -6.65%K -10.80%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-18 00:15 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.57%EV -1.81%E -1.26%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.43%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-09-17 23:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -1.81%E -1.26%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -10.92%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-17 22:50 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -2.49%E -1.74%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -14.10%E -5.22%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-18 00:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.73%EV -3.18%E -2.24%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.27%EV -5.19%E -1.74%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-17 22:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -3.18%E -2.24%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -6.15%E -2.08%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-17 22:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.18%E -2.24%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-18 00:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.74%EV -3.86%E -2.74%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.26%EV -1.38%E -0.444%K -0.655%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-17 19:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.74%EV -3.86%E -2.74%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.26%EV -1.38%E -0.444%K -0.655%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-17 18:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.74%EV -3.86%E -2.74%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.26%EV -1.38%E -0.444%K -0.655%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-17 18:59 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.74%EV -3.86%E -2.74%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.26%EV -1.38%E -0.444%K -0.655%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-17 18:59 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -3.86%E -2.74%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -2.97%E -0.972%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-17 20:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -3.86%E -2.74%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -2.97%E -0.972%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-17 23:59 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -3.86%E -2.74%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -2.97%E -0.972%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-18 00:08 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.10%EV -3.86%E -2.74%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 3.01I 33.22%NM 31.90%EV -4.24%E -1.41%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-17 22:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -3.86%E -2.74%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-17 23:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -3.86%E -2.74%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -6.15%E -2.08%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-17 19:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.86%E -2.74%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-17 19:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.86%E -2.74%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-17 19:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.86%E -2.74%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-17 18:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.86%E -2.74%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-17 19:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.21%EV -3.86%E -2.74%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 2.89I 34.60%NM 32.79%EV -8.06%E -2.79%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-18 00:15 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -3.86%E -2.74%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -9.33%E -3.27%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-17 23:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.89%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.11%EV +3.40%E +1.05%K +1.51%G +0.051% | 2.2% | 2026-09-18 00:14 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.43%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 30.57%EV +1.17%E +0.368%K +0.537%G +0.006% | 2.9% | 2026-09-18 00:14 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -1.38%E -0.444%K -0.655%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-18 00:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -1.38%E -0.444%K -0.655%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-17 23:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-18 00:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-18 00:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-18 00:15 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-17 22:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-17 14:48 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.04%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.96%EV -5.19%E -1.74%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-17 22:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.15%E -2.08%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-18 00:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.54%E -3.24%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.15%E -2.08%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-17 23:50 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.38%EV -5.22%E -3.76%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.62%EV +0.215%E +0.068%K +0.100%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-18 00:14 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.18%EV -5.22%E -3.76%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.82%EV -0.739%E -0.237%K -0.349%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-17 23:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.11%EV -5.22%E -3.76%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 3.11I 32.15%NM 30.89%EV -1.06%E -0.340%K -0.501%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-18 00:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -5.22%E -3.76%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -2.97%E -0.972%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-17 16:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -5.22%E -3.76%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-18 00:14 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.90%E -4.28%K -15.54%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -2.97%E -0.972%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-18 00:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.90%E -4.28%K -15.54%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-18 00:15 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.90%E -4.28%K -15.54%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-18 00:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.42%EV -5.90%E -4.28%K -15.54%G +0.000% | 2.99I 33.44%NM 31.58%EV -4.87%E -1.63%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-18 00:13 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.59%EV -5.90%E -4.28%K -15.54%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -12.51%E -4.55%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-17 23:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -6.59%E -4.81%K -17.80%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-18 00:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -7.27%E -5.34%K -20.19%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -1.38%E -0.444%K -0.655%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-17 21:44 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -7.27%E -5.34%K -20.19%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -1.38%E -0.444%K -0.655%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-17 21:34 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -7.27%E -5.34%K -20.19%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -1.38%E -0.444%K -0.655%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-17 21:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -7.27%E -5.34%K -20.19%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -1.38%E -0.444%K -0.655%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-17 21:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -7.27%E -5.34%K -20.19%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -1.38%E -0.444%K -0.655%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-17 21:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -7.27%E -5.34%K -20.19%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -1.38%E -0.444%K -0.655%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-17 21:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.85%EV -7.27%E -5.34%K -20.19%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.15%EV -8.69%E -3.03%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-17 22:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.85%EV -7.27%E -5.34%K -20.19%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.15%EV -8.69%E -3.03%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-17 22:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -9.31%E -7.00%K -28.22%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV +1.81%E +0.564%K +0.821%G +0.015% | 6.4% | 2026-09-18 00:15 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.12%EV -10.00%E -7.57%K -31.23%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 31.88%EV -10.28%E -3.65%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-18 00:04 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 67.26%EV -12.72%E -9.94%K -45.44%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 32.74%EV -16.33%E -6.21%K -10.02%G +0.000% | 16.1% | 2026-09-17 18:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 69.30% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.70% | 0.2% | 2026-09-18 00:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 69.30% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.70% | 0.2% | 2026-09-18 00:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03% | 0.7% | 2026-09-18 00:15 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 0.7% | 2026-09-18 00:05 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.31% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.69% | 0.9% | 2026-09-17 20:35 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.31% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.69% | 0.9% | 2026-09-17 21:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89% | 1.2% | 2026-09-18 00:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.41% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.59% | 2.2% | 2026-09-18 00:15 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.15% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 31.85% | 2.6% | 2026-09-18 00:09 |