The School of Odds

Buffalo Bills v Detroit Lions

2026-09-18 00:15 — NFL

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (10 in analysis)

Option 1: Buffalo Bills (Local)

Odds
1.5564.52%Min
1.6062.48%Mean
1.6162.11%Median
1.6361.35%Max
Consensus probabilities
58.94%1.697Min
60.25%1.660Max
59.48%1.681Mean
59.40%1.684Median
59.47%1.682IQM
59.48%1.681Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.63 under the IQM model: 59.47%

EV -3.07%Edge -1.88%Kelly -4.87%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Detroit Lions (Visit)

Odds
2.3043.48%Min
2.3542.46%Mean
2.3542.55%Median
2.4041.67%Max
Consensus probabilities
39.75%2.516Min
41.06%2.436Max
40.52%2.468Mean
40.60%2.463Median
40.53%2.467IQM
40.52%2.468Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.40 under the IQM model: 40.53%

EV -2.72%Edge -1.13%Kelly -1.94%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

BookmakerBuffalo Bills (Local) ▼Detroit Lions (Visit)MarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)1.63I 61.35% NM 59.05%EV -3.07% E -1.88% K -4.87% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 40.95%EV -4.75% E -2.02% K -3.52% G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-28 18:19
Caesars1.63I 61.35% NM 58.94%EV -3.07% E -1.88% K -4.87% G +0.000%2.34I 42.74% NM 41.06%EV -5.15% E -2.20% K -3.84% G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-22 16:56
DraftKings1.62I 61.73% NM 59.30%EV -3.66% E -2.26% K -5.91% G +0.000%2.36I 42.37% NM 40.70%EV -4.34% E -1.84% K -3.19% G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-22 21:09
Bovada1.62I 61.73% NM 59.19%EV -3.66% E -2.26% K -5.91% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 40.81%EV -4.75% E -2.02% K -3.52% G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-22 21:09
BetMGM1.61I 62.11% NM 59.85%EV -4.26% E -2.65% K -6.98% G +0.000%2.40I 41.67% NM 40.15%EV -2.72% E -1.13% K -1.94% G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-12 15:49
theScore Bet1.61I 62.11% NM 59.85%EV -4.26% E -2.65% K -6.98% G +0.000%2.40I 41.67% NM 40.15%EV -2.72% E -1.13% K -1.94% G +0.000%3.8%2026-06-22 22:49
Unibet (NL)1.61I 62.11% NM 59.34%EV -4.26% E -2.65% K -6.98% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 40.66%EV -4.75% E -2.02% K -3.52% G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-12 17:55
Unibet1.61I 62.11% NM 59.34%EV -4.26% E -2.65% K -6.98% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 40.66%EV -4.75% E -2.02% K -3.52% G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-12 17:55
LeoVegas (SE)1.61I 62.11% NM 59.34%EV -4.26% E -2.65% K -6.98% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 40.66%EV -4.75% E -2.02% K -3.52% G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-12 17:55
Unibet (SE)1.61I 62.11% NM 59.34%EV -4.26% E -2.65% K -6.98% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 40.66%EV -4.75% E -2.02% K -3.52% G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-12 17:54
Bally Bet1.61I 62.11% NM 59.34%EV -4.26% E -2.65% K -6.98% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 40.66%EV -4.75% E -2.02% K -3.52% G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-12 17:55
betPARX1.61I 62.11% NM 59.34%EV -4.26% E -2.65% K -6.98% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 40.66%EV -4.75% E -2.02% K -3.52% G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-12 17:55
ATG (SE)1.61I 62.11% NM 59.34%EV -4.26% E -2.65% K -6.98% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 40.66%EV -4.75% E -2.02% K -3.52% G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-12 17:55
Svenska Spel1.61I 62.11% NM 59.34%EV -4.26% E -2.65% K -6.98% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 40.66%EV -4.75% E -2.02% K -3.52% G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-12 17:55
BetRivers1.61I 62.11% NM 59.14%EV -4.26% E -2.65% K -6.98% G +0.000%2.33I 42.92% NM 40.86%EV -5.56% E -2.39% K -4.18% G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-12 17:54
Bet Right1.61I 62.11% NM 59.03%EV -4.26% E -2.65% K -6.98% G +0.000%2.32I 43.10% NM 40.97%EV -5.96% E -2.57% K -4.52% G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-21 08:09
Ladbrokes (UK)1.60I 62.50% NM 60.00%EV -4.85% E -3.03% K -8.09% G +0.000%2.40I 41.67% NM 40.00%EV -2.72% E -1.13% K -1.94% G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-12 15:50
Coral1.60I 62.50% NM 60.00%EV -4.85% E -3.03% K -8.09% G +0.000%2.40I 41.67% NM 40.00%EV -2.72% E -1.13% K -1.94% G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-12 15:50
Neds1.60I 62.50% NM 59.49%EV -4.85% E -3.03% K -8.09% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 40.51%EV -4.75% E -2.02% K -3.52% G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-12 15:49
Ladbrokes (AU)1.60I 62.50% NM 59.49%EV -4.85% E -3.03% K -8.09% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 40.51%EV -4.75% E -2.02% K -3.52% G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-12 15:50
Unibet (UK)1.60I 62.50% NM 59.49%EV -4.85% E -3.03% K -8.09% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 40.51%EV -4.75% E -2.02% K -3.52% G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-14 17:00
Fanatics1.59I 62.89% NM 60.15%EV -5.45% E -3.43% K -9.23% G +0.000%2.40I 41.67% NM 39.85%EV -2.72% E -1.13% K -1.94% G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-03 13:50
ReBet1.59I 62.89% NM 59.75%EV -5.45% E -3.43% K -9.23% G +0.000%2.36I 42.37% NM 40.25%EV -4.34% E -1.84% K -3.19% G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-22 22:49
MyBookie.ag1.58I 63.29% NM 59.59%EV -6.04% E -3.82% K -10.42% G +0.000%2.33I 42.92% NM 40.41%EV -5.56% E -2.39% K -4.18% G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-19 21:20
Betclic (FR)1.58I 63.29% NM 59.28%EV -6.04% E -3.82% K -10.42% G +0.000%2.30I 43.48% NM 40.72%EV -6.77% E -2.94% K -5.21% G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-24 02:20
FanDuel1.57I 63.69% NM 61.04%EV -6.64% E -4.23% K -11.64% G +0.000%2.46I 40.65% NM 38.96%EV -0.288% E -0.117% K -0.197% G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-12 14:09
Paddy Power1.57I 63.69% NM 60.25%EV -6.64% E -4.23% K -11.64% G +0.000%2.38I 42.02% NM 39.75%EV -3.53% E -1.48% K -2.56% G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-12 13:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.57I 63.69% NM 60.25%EV -6.64% E -4.23% K -11.64% G +0.000%2.38I 42.02% NM 39.75%EV -3.53% E -1.48% K -2.56% G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-12 13:34
William Hill1.57I 63.69% NM 60.25%EV -6.64% E -4.23% K -11.64% G +0.000%2.38I 42.02% NM 39.75%EV -3.53% E -1.48% K -2.56% G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-14 17:00
NordicBet1.57I 63.69% NM 59.74%EV -6.64% E -4.23% K -11.64% G +0.000%2.33I 42.92% NM 40.26%EV -5.56% E -2.39% K -4.18% G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-26 10:19
Betsson1.57I 63.69% NM 59.74%EV -6.64% E -4.23% K -11.64% G +0.000%2.33I 42.92% NM 40.26%EV -5.56% E -2.39% K -4.18% G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-26 10:19
SportsBet1.56I 64.10% NM 61.10%EV -7.23% E -4.64% K -12.91% G +0.000%2.45I 40.82% NM 38.90%EV -0.693% E -0.283% K -0.478% G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-12 14:09
LeoVegas1.55I 64.52% NM 59.74%EV -7.83% E -5.05% K -14.23% G +0.000%2.30I 43.48% NM 40.26%EV -6.77% E -2.94% K -5.21% G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-02 10:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerBuffalo Bills (Local)Detroit Lions (Visit)Margin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.55I 64.52%2.28I 43.86%8.4%2026-06-22 22:49