Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Iga Swiatek v Maja Chwalinska

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 11:40 UTC

Final: Iga Swiatek 0–2 Maja Chwalinska

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

80%

20%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Iga Swiatek (Local)

Prediction 80.02%1.25fair odd

EV -1.58%

Edge -1.28%

Kelly -6.87%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

76.63%80.11%79.97%82.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.111.181.171.2390.09%84.94%85.47%81.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Maja Chwalinska (Visit)

Prediction 19.98%5.00fair odd

EV +9.91%

Edge +1.80%

Kelly +2.20%

Growth +0.218%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

17.29%19.89%20.03%23.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.004.894.905.5025.00%20.46%20.41%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Iga Swiatek (Local): 80.02%; Maja Chwalinska (Visit): 19.98%. For Maja Chwalinska (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.00. 22 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.91%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -7.18%E -6.19%K -44.88%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +9.91%E +1.80%K +2.20%G +0.218%	4.4%	2026-10-16 20:10
BetRivers🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -7.18%E -6.19%K -44.88%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +9.91%E +1.80%K +2.20%G +0.218%	4.4%	2026-10-16 20:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -7.18%E -6.19%K -44.88%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +9.91%E +1.80%K +2.20%G +0.218%	4.4%	2026-10-16 20:10
Virgin Bet🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -7.18%E -6.19%K -44.88%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +9.91%E +1.80%K +2.20%G +0.218%	4.4%	2026-10-16 20:10
Grosvenor🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -7.18%E -6.19%K -44.88%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +9.91%E +1.80%K +2.20%G +0.218%	4.4%	2026-10-16 20:10
TABtouch🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -7.18%E -6.19%K -44.88%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +9.91%E +1.80%K +2.20%G +0.218%	4.4%	2026-10-16 20:10
Casumo🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -7.18%E -6.19%K -44.88%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +9.91%E +1.80%K +2.20%G +0.218%	4.4%	2026-10-16 20:09
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -7.18%E -6.19%K -44.88%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +9.91%E +1.80%K +2.20%G +0.218%	4.4%	2026-10-16 20:10
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -7.18%E -6.19%K -44.88%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +9.91%E +1.80%K +2.20%G +0.218%	4.4%	2026-10-16 20:10
Unibet🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -7.18%E -6.19%K -44.88%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +9.91%E +1.80%K +2.20%G +0.218%	4.4%	2026-10-16 20:09
Svenska Spel🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -7.18%E -6.19%K -44.88%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +9.91%E +1.80%K +2.20%G +0.218%	4.4%	2026-10-16 20:10
ATG (SE)🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -7.18%E -6.19%K -44.88%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +9.91%E +1.80%K +2.20%G +0.218%	4.4%	2026-10-16 20:09
Bally Bet🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -7.18%E -6.19%K -44.88%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +9.91%E +1.80%K +2.20%G +0.218%	4.4%	2026-10-16 20:08
betPARX🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -7.18%E -6.19%K -44.88%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +9.91%E +1.80%K +2.20%G +0.218%	4.4%	2026-10-16 20:09
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -7.98%E -6.94%K -53.21%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +9.91%E +1.80%K +2.20%G +0.218%	5.1%	2026-10-16 13:45
NordicBet🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.57%EV -8.78%E -7.70%K -62.73%G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV +7.91%E +1.47%K +1.80%G +0.142%	6.2%	2026-10-17 11:29
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -7.18%E -6.19%K -44.88%G +0.000%	5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +4.92%E +0.936%K +1.16%G +0.057%	5.3%	2026-10-17 11:15
ReBet🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -6.38%E -5.45%K -37.54%G +0.000%	5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV +3.92%E +0.753%K +0.932%G +0.037%	4.7%	2026-10-17 11:29
Betsson🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -7.18%E -6.19%K -44.88%G +0.000%	5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV +3.92%E +0.753%K +0.932%G +0.037%	5.4%	2026-10-17 11:28
Tipico (DE)🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -7.98%E -6.94%K -53.21%G +0.000%	5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV +3.92%E +0.753%K +0.932%G +0.037%	6.2%	2026-10-17 10:55
1xBet🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 81.45%EV -5.58%E -4.73%K -31.01%G +0.000%	5.18I 19.31%NM 18.55%EV +3.52%E +0.679%K +0.841%G +0.030%	4.1%	2026-10-17 11:24
SportsBet🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.38%E -5.45%K -37.54%G +0.000%	5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +1.92%E +0.376%K +0.468%G +0.009%	5.1%	2026-10-17 11:20
FanDuel🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.58%E -4.73%K -31.01%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -0.081%E -0.016%K -0.020%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-10-17 11:20
Paddy Power🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.38%E -5.45%K -37.54%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -0.081%E -0.016%K -0.020%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-10-17 11:20
Marathon Bet🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.38%E -5.45%K -37.54%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -0.081%E -0.016%K -0.020%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-10-17 11:30
BoyleSports🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.38%E -5.45%K -37.54%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -0.081%E -0.016%K -0.020%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-10-17 10:55
picklebet_au🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -7.18%E -6.19%K -44.88%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -0.081%E -0.016%K -0.020%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-10-17 11:29
PMU (FR)🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 81.83%EV -11.18%E -10.07%K -101.66%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -0.081%E -0.016%K -0.020%G +0.000%	10.1%	2026-10-16 20:09
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 80.33%EV -3.98%E -3.32%K -19.90%G +0.000%	4.90I 20.41%NM 19.67%EV -2.08%E -0.424%K -0.533%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-10-17 11:30
Coolbet🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -4.78%E -4.02%K -25.16%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -4.08%E -0.849%K -1.07%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-10-17 11:25
LeoVegas🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -5.58%E -4.73%K -31.01%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -4.08%E -0.849%K -1.07%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-10-17 11:29
Bovada🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.98%E -3.32%K -19.90%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -5.08%E -1.07%K -1.35%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-17 11:29
Fanatics🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.78%E -4.02%K -25.16%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -5.08%E -1.07%K -1.35%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-17 11:28
BetMGM🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.78%E -4.02%K -25.16%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -5.08%E -1.07%K -1.35%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-17 11:20
Pinnacle🎯	1.23I 81.30%NM 79.26%EV -1.58%E -1.28%K -6.87%G +0.000%	4.70I 21.28%NM 20.74%EV -6.08%E -1.29%K -1.64%G +0.000%	2.6%	2026-10-17 11:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 79.62%EV -4.78%E -4.02%K -25.16%G +0.000%	4.65I 21.51%NM 20.38%EV -7.07%E -1.52%K -1.94%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-10-17 11:30
DraftKings🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.27%EV -3.98%E -3.32%K -19.90%G +0.000%	4.59I 21.79%NM 20.73%EV -8.27%E -1.80%K -2.30%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-17 11:25
Betr (AU)🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -4.78%E -4.02%K -25.16%G +0.000%	4.55I 21.98%NM 20.73%EV -9.07%E -1.99%K -2.56%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-10-17 11:30
LowVig.ag🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.85%EV -3.18%E -2.63%K -15.15%G +0.000%	4.51I 22.17%NM 21.15%EV -9.87%E -2.19%K -2.81%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-10-17 11:25
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.85%EV -3.18%E -2.63%K -15.15%G +0.000%	4.51I 22.17%NM 21.15%EV -9.87%E -2.19%K -2.81%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-10-17 11:25
Betway🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.98%E -3.32%K -19.90%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -10.07%E -2.24%K -2.88%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-10-17 11:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.98%E -3.32%K -19.90%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -10.07%E -2.24%K -2.88%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-10-17 11:20
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -5.58%E -4.73%K -31.01%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -10.07%E -2.24%K -2.88%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-10-17 11:30
Coral🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -6.38%E -5.45%K -37.54%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -10.07%E -2.24%K -2.88%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-10-17 11:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -6.38%E -5.45%K -37.54%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -10.07%E -2.24%K -2.88%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-10-17 11:20
Betclic (FR)🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 79.75%EV -9.58%E -8.48%K -73.71%G +0.000%	4.45I 22.47%NM 20.25%EV -11.07%E -2.49%K -3.21%G +0.000%	11.0%	2026-10-17 11:25
Bet Victor🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 78.58%EV -5.58%E -4.73%K -31.01%G +0.000%	4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -13.47%E -3.11%K -4.04%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-10-17 11:19
betano_uk🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 78.58%EV -5.58%E -4.73%K -31.01%G +0.000%	4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -13.47%E -3.11%K -4.04%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-10-17 11:29
Neds🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -3.98%E -3.32%K -19.90%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -15.07%E -3.55%K -4.64%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-10-17 11:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -3.98%E -3.32%K -19.90%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -15.07%E -3.55%K -4.64%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-10-17 11:20
888sport🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -2.38%E -1.95%K -10.82%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -16.07%E -3.83%K -5.02%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-17 11:25
William Hill🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -2.38%E -1.95%K -10.82%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -16.07%E -3.83%K -5.02%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-17 11:25
PlayUp🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -2.38%E -1.95%K -10.82%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -16.07%E -3.83%K -5.02%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-17 11:25
888sport (SE)🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -2.38%E -1.95%K -10.82%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -16.07%E -3.83%K -5.02%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-17 11:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -2.38%E -1.95%K -10.82%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -16.07%E -3.83%K -5.02%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-17 11:25
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 78.95%EV -10.38%E -9.27%K -86.52%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 21.05%EV -16.07%E -3.83%K -5.02%G +0.000%	13.1%	2026-10-17 11:30
TAB🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -2.38%E -1.95%K -10.82%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -20.06%E -5.02%K -6.69%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-10-17 11:30

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.25I 80.00%NM 79.67%	4.90I 20.41%NM 20.33%	0.4%	2026-10-17 11:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34%	4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66%	0.8%	2026-10-17 11:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34%	4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66%	0.8%	2026-10-17 11:25
Novig◎	1.25I 80.00%NM 78.81%	4.65I 21.51%NM 21.19%	1.5%	2026-10-17 11:30
Smarkets◎	1.24I 80.65%NM 79.12%	4.70I 21.28%NM 20.88%	1.9%	2026-10-17 11:30
ProphetX◎	1.25I 80.00%NM 78.45%	4.55I 21.98%NM 21.55%	2.0%	2026-10-17 11:30