Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Iga Swiatek v Maja Chwalinska

2026-10-17 10:30 UTC — WTA Wuhan Open

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Iga Swiatek (Local)

Predicción 83.37%1.20momio equitativo
EV -2.46%
Ventaja -2.10%
Kelly -14.46%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.17

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
80.87%83.35%83.45%85.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.101.141.141.1790.91%87.59%87.72%85.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Maja Chwalinska (Visitante)

Predicción 16.63%6.01momio equitativo
EV +8.10%
Ventaja +1.25%
Kelly +1.47%
Crecimiento +0.119%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.70%16.65%16.55%19.13%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.655.565.506.5021.51%17.98%18.18%15.38%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Iga Swiatek (Local): 83.37%; Maja Chwalinska (Visitante): 16.63%. Para Maja Chwalinska (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 6.01. 5 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 6.50, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +8.10%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
BoyleSports🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -6.63%E -5.92%K -55.22%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV +8.10%E +1.25%K +1.47%G +0.119%4.7%2026-10-16 14:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.82%EV -7.46%E -6.72%K -67.82%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.18%EV +3.11%E +0.502%K +0.598%G +0.019%6.2%2026-10-16 21:59
DraftKings🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.39%EV -5.79%E -5.13%K -44.56%G +0.000%6.11I 16.37%NM 15.61%EV +1.62%E +0.264%K +0.316%G +0.005%4.9%2026-10-16 13:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 84.14%EV -4.96%E -4.35%K -35.42%G +0.000%6.05I 16.53%NM 15.86%EV +0.617%E +0.102%K +0.122%G +0.001%4.2%2026-10-16 16:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 84.14%EV -4.96%E -4.35%K -35.42%G +0.000%6.05I 16.53%NM 15.86%EV +0.617%E +0.102%K +0.122%G +0.001%4.2%2026-10-16 16:20
BetMGM🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.79%E -5.13%K -44.56%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -0.214%E -0.036%K -0.043%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-16 14:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.63%E -5.92%K -55.22%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -0.214%E -0.036%K -0.043%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-16 21:49
Pinnacle🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 83.78%EV -3.29%E -2.84%K -20.57%G +0.000%5.99I 16.69%NM 16.22%EV -0.381%E -0.064%K -0.076%G +0.000%2.9%2026-10-16 22:20
Betsson🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.96%E -4.35%K -35.42%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -3.54%E -0.610%K -0.738%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-16 20:25
NordicBet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.96%E -4.35%K -35.42%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -3.54%E -0.610%K -0.738%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-16 20:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -5.79%E -5.13%K -44.56%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -3.54%E -0.610%K -0.738%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-16 22:30
SportsBet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.96%E -4.35%K -35.42%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -4.37%E -0.760%K -0.920%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-16 18:05
Bovada🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.96%E -4.35%K -35.42%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -4.37%E -0.760%K -0.920%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-16 22:12
Unibet (UK)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -5.79%E -5.13%K -44.56%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -4.37%E -0.760%K -0.920%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-16 22:30
theScore Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -5.79%E -5.13%K -44.56%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -4.37%E -0.760%K -0.920%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-16 15:15
Coral🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.82%EV -7.46%E -6.72%K -67.82%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.18%EV -4.37%E -0.760%K -0.920%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-16 14:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.82%EV -7.46%E -6.72%K -67.82%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.18%EV -4.37%E -0.760%K -0.920%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-16 14:45
LeoVegas🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.33%EV -4.96%E -4.35%K -35.42%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.67%EV -5.20%E -0.913%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-16 22:34
Fanatics🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.33%EV -4.96%E -4.35%K -35.42%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.67%EV -5.20%E -0.913%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-16 17:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.21%EV -4.96%E -4.35%K -35.42%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 16.79%EV -6.04%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-16 17:35
FanDuel🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -4.13%E -3.59%K -27.50%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -6.87%E -1.23%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-16 18:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -3.29%E -2.84%K -20.57%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -8.53%E -1.55%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-16 20:10
BetRivers🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -3.29%E -2.84%K -20.57%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -8.53%E -1.55%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-16 20:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -3.29%E -2.84%K -20.57%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -8.53%E -1.55%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-16 20:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -3.29%E -2.84%K -20.57%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -8.53%E -1.55%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-16 20:10
Grosvenor🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -3.29%E -2.84%K -20.57%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -8.53%E -1.55%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-16 20:10
TABtouch🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -3.29%E -2.84%K -20.57%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -8.53%E -1.55%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-16 20:10
Casumo🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -3.29%E -2.84%K -20.57%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -8.53%E -1.55%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-16 20:09
Unibet (SE)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -3.29%E -2.84%K -20.57%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -8.53%E -1.55%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-16 20:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -3.29%E -2.84%K -20.57%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -8.53%E -1.55%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-16 20:10
Unibet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -3.29%E -2.84%K -20.57%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -8.53%E -1.55%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-16 20:09
Svenska Spel🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -3.29%E -2.84%K -20.57%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -8.53%E -1.55%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-16 20:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -3.29%E -2.84%K -20.57%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -8.53%E -1.55%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-16 20:09
Bally Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -3.29%E -2.84%K -20.57%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -8.53%E -1.55%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-16 20:08
betPARX🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -3.29%E -2.84%K -20.57%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -8.53%E -1.55%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-16 20:09
Coolbet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.13%E -3.59%K -27.50%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -8.53%E -1.55%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-16 22:25
Betway🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.13%E -3.59%K -27.50%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -8.53%E -1.55%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-16 21:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.13%E -3.59%K -27.50%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -8.53%E -1.55%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-16 13:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.96%E -4.35%K -35.42%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -8.53%E -1.55%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-16 17:45
888sport🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.96%E -4.35%K -35.42%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -8.53%E -1.55%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-16 17:35
William Hill🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.96%E -4.35%K -35.42%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -8.53%E -1.55%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-16 17:35
Paddy Power🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.96%E -4.35%K -35.42%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -8.53%E -1.55%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-16 18:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.96%E -4.35%K -35.42%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -8.53%E -1.55%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-16 17:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.96%E -4.35%K -35.42%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -8.53%E -1.55%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-16 17:35
BetAnything🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.96%E -4.35%K -35.42%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -8.53%E -1.55%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-16 18:50
picklebet_au🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -6.63%E -5.92%K -55.22%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -8.53%E -1.55%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-16 22:29
ReBet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -6.63%E -5.92%K -55.22%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -8.53%E -1.55%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-16 22:35
Neds🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.57%EV -4.96%E -4.35%K -35.42%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV -10.19%E -1.89%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-16 14:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.57%EV -4.96%E -4.35%K -35.42%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV -10.19%E -1.89%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-16 14:44
1xBet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 82.08%EV -2.46%E -2.10%K -14.46%G +0.000%5.36I 18.66%NM 17.92%EV -10.86%E -2.03%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-16 22:24
Marathon Bet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -4.13%E -3.59%K -27.50%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -12.69%E -2.42%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-16 22:19
PlayUp🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -4.13%E -3.59%K -27.50%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -12.69%E -2.42%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-16 22:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.46%E -2.10%K -14.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.85%E -3.37%K -4.21%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-16 18:05
Bet Victor🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -4.96%E -4.35%K -35.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -16.85%E -3.37%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-16 18:04
betano_uk🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -4.96%E -4.35%K -35.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -16.85%E -3.37%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-16 18:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.83%EV -7.46%E -6.72%K -67.82%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -16.85%E -3.37%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-16 20:09
Winamax (FR)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.53%EV -7.46%E -6.72%K -67.82%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.47%EV -18.51%E -3.78%K -4.75%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-16 22:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 80.87%EV -8.29%E -7.54%K -82.94%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.13%EV -22.67%E -4.87%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-16 22:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 84.54%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46%1.1%2026-10-16 22:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 84.54%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46%1.1%2026-10-16 22:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 84.54%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46%1.1%2026-10-16 22:15
Novig◎1.18I 84.75%NM 83.70%6.06I 16.50%NM 16.30%1.2%2026-10-16 22:10
Smarkets◎1.16I 86.21%NM 84.66%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.34%1.8%2026-10-16 22:20