Language:English
Jasmine Paolini v Robin Montgomery
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Jasmine Paolini (Local)
Prediction 33.26%3.01fair odd
EV +13.08%
Edge +3.85%
Kelly +5.45%
Growth +0.712%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.12%34.23%32.71%43.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.732.803.4046.51%36.64%35.65%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Robin Montgomery (Visit)
Prediction 66.74%1.50fair odd
EV +12.79%
Edge +7.57%
Kelly +18.54%
Growth +2.37%
assuming max odds 1.69
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.58%65.77%67.29%71.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.461.401.6975.76%68.70%71.43%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jasmine Paolini (Local): 33.26%; Robin Montgomery (Visit): 66.74%. For Jasmine Paolini (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.01. 19 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.08%.
Sportsbook Odds (66 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.33%EV -26.50%E -11.99%K -21.90%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.67%EV +12.79%E +7.57%K +18.54%G +2.37% | 4.4% | 2026-06-30 10:02 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -21.84%E -9.30%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV +10.12%E +6.14%K +15.58%G +1.58% | 3.2% | 2026-06-30 10:09 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -23.51%E -10.22%K -18.08%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV +10.12%E +6.14%K +15.58%G +1.58% | 4.1% | 2026-06-30 10:01 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -25.17%E -11.19%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV +10.12%E +6.14%K +15.58%G +1.58% | 5.1% | 2026-06-30 09:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -28.50%E -13.25%K -24.78%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV +10.12%E +6.14%K +15.58%G +1.58% | 7.1% | 2026-06-30 10:07 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -25.17%E -11.19%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV +9.46%E +5.77%K +14.78%G +1.40% | 5.4% | 2026-06-30 10:02 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -25.17%E -11.19%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV +9.46%E +5.77%K +14.78%G +1.40% | 5.4% | 2026-06-30 10:01 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.06%EV -22.18%E -9.48%K -16.55%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.94%EV +8.79%E +5.39%K +13.95%G +1.23% | 4.1% | 2026-06-30 09:58 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -24.50%E -10.80%K -19.30%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV +8.79%E +5.39%K +13.95%G +1.23% | 5.4% | 2026-06-30 10:06 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.60%EV -21.18%E -8.94%K -15.46%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.40%EV +8.12%E +5.01%K +13.10%G +1.06% | 3.9% | 2026-06-30 10:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -23.51%E -10.22%K -18.08%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV +8.12%E +5.01%K +13.10%G +1.06% | 5.2% | 2026-06-30 10:09 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -23.51%E -10.22%K -18.08%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV +8.12%E +5.01%K +13.10%G +1.06% | 5.2% | 2026-06-30 10:06 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -23.51%E -10.22%K -18.08%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV +8.12%E +5.01%K +13.10%G +1.06% | 5.2% | 2026-06-30 10:04 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -25.17%E -11.19%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV +8.12%E +5.01%K +13.10%G +1.06% | 6.2% | 2026-06-30 10:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -21.18%E -8.94%K -15.46%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV +7.45%E +4.63%K +12.22%G +0.911% | 4.3% | 2026-06-30 10:02 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -23.51%E -10.22%K -18.08%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV +7.45%E +4.63%K +12.22%G +0.911% | 5.6% | 2026-06-30 10:06 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -23.51%E -10.22%K -18.08%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV +6.79%E +4.24%K +11.31%G +0.768% | 6.0% | 2026-06-30 10:06 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -23.51%E -10.22%K -18.08%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV +6.79%E +4.24%K +11.31%G +0.768% | 6.0% | 2026-06-30 09:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -23.51%E -10.22%K -18.08%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV +6.79%E +4.24%K +11.31%G +0.768% | 6.0% | 2026-06-30 10:02 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -23.51%E -10.22%K -18.08%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV +6.79%E +4.24%K +11.31%G +0.768% | 6.0% | 2026-06-30 10:08 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.04%EV -24.50%E -10.80%K -19.30%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.96%EV +5.45%E +3.45%K +9.40%G +0.513% | 7.3% | 2026-06-30 10:02 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -20.85%E -8.76%K -15.11%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV +4.79%E +3.05%K +8.40%G +0.402% | 5.7% | 2026-06-30 09:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -10.20%E -3.78%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -1.22%E -0.825%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-30 10:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 36.43%EV -15.86%E -6.27%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.57%EV -3.22%E -2.22%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-06-30 10:08 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -10.20%E -3.78%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -3.89%E -2.70%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-30 10:08 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -10.20%E -3.78%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -3.89%E -2.70%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-30 10:09 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -3.55%E -1.22%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.23%E -3.68%K -12.44%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-30 10:08 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -0.227%E -0.076%K -0.113%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -6.56%E -4.69%K -16.40%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-30 10:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -1.89%E -0.640%K -0.969%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.56%E -4.69%K -16.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-30 10:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.55%E -1.22%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.56%E -4.69%K -16.40%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-30 10:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.55%E -1.22%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.56%E -4.69%K -16.40%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-30 10:09 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -4.22%E -1.46%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -6.56%E -4.69%K -16.40%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-30 10:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.54%E -3.11%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.56%E -4.69%K -16.40%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-30 10:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.54%E -3.11%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.56%E -4.69%K -16.40%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-30 10:09 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.54%E -3.11%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.56%E -4.69%K -16.40%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-30 10:09 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.99%EV -10.20%E -3.78%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 66.01%EV -7.23%E -5.20%K -18.53%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-06-30 10:09 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.82%EV -10.20%E -3.78%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.18%EV -7.90%E -5.72%K -20.78%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-06-30 10:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.86I 34.97%NM 32.39%EV -4.88%E -1.71%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.61%EV -8.56%E -6.25%K -23.14%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-30 10:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.86I 34.97%NM 32.39%EV -4.88%E -1.71%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.61%EV -8.56%E -6.25%K -23.14%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-30 10:09 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV +8.09%E +2.49%K +3.59%G +0.291% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -9.23%E -6.79%K -25.64%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-30 10:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +3.10%E +1.000%K +1.48%G +0.046% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -9.23%E -6.79%K -25.64%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-30 10:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +3.10%E +1.000%K +1.48%G +0.046% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -9.23%E -6.79%K -25.64%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-30 10:09 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +3.10%E +1.000%K +1.48%G +0.046% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -9.23%E -6.79%K -25.64%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-30 10:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +3.10%E +1.000%K +1.48%G +0.046% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -9.23%E -6.79%K -25.64%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-30 10:09 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +3.10%E +1.000%K +1.48%G +0.046% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -9.23%E -6.79%K -25.64%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-30 10:09 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +3.10%E +1.000%K +1.48%G +0.046% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -9.23%E -6.79%K -25.64%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-30 10:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +3.10%E +1.000%K +1.48%G +0.046% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -9.23%E -6.79%K -25.64%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-30 10:09 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +3.10%E +1.000%K +1.48%G +0.046% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -9.23%E -6.79%K -25.64%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-30 10:09 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -0.227%E -0.076%K -0.113%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -9.23%E -6.79%K -25.64%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-30 10:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -4.22%E -1.46%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -9.23%E -6.79%K -25.64%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-30 10:09 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -4.22%E -1.46%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -9.23%E -6.79%K -25.64%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-30 10:09 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.09%EV -8.54%E -3.11%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.91%EV -9.23%E -6.79%K -25.64%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-06-30 10:09 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV +1.44%E +0.471%K +0.701%G +0.010% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -9.90%E -7.33%K -28.28%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-30 10:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV +1.44%E +0.471%K +0.701%G +0.010% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -9.90%E -7.33%K -28.28%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-30 10:09 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV +1.44%E +0.471%K +0.701%G +0.010% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -9.90%E -7.33%K -28.28%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-30 10:09 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -0.227%E -0.076%K -0.113%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -9.90%E -7.33%K -28.28%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-30 10:09 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV +3.10%E +1.000%K +1.48%G +0.046% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -10.57%E -7.88%K -31.07%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-30 10:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV +1.44%E +0.471%K +0.701%G +0.010% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.48%EV -10.57%E -7.88%K -31.07%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-30 10:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV +1.44%E +0.471%K +0.701%G +0.010% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.48%EV -10.57%E -7.88%K -31.07%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-30 10:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV +1.44%E +0.471%K +0.701%G +0.010% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.48%EV -10.57%E -7.88%K -31.07%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-30 10:09 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV +1.44%E +0.471%K +0.701%G +0.010% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.48%EV -10.57%E -7.88%K -31.07%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-30 10:09 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.17%EV -10.20%E -3.78%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 66.83%EV -10.57%E -7.88%K -31.07%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-06-30 10:09 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV +13.08%E +3.85%K +5.45%G +0.712% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -11.23%E -8.45%K -34.04%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-30 10:09 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV +3.10%E +1.000%K +1.48%G +0.046% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -11.23%E -8.45%K -34.04%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-30 10:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -0.227%E -0.076%K -0.113%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -11.23%E -8.45%K -34.04%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-06-30 10:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -0.227%E -0.076%K -0.113%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -11.90%E -9.02%K -37.19%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-06-30 10:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.09% | 0.7% | 2026-06-30 10:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.78% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.22% | 0.7% | 2026-06-30 10:09 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92% | 0.7% | 2026-06-30 10:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92% | 0.7% | 2026-06-30 10:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.79% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.21% | 1.4% | 2026-06-30 10:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.08% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.92% | 1.6% | 2026-06-30 10:09 |
| Novig◎ | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.76% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.24% | 3.9% | 2026-06-30 10:09 |