L’École des cotes

Jasmine Paolini v Robin Montgomery

Coup d’envoi : 2026-06-30 11:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

66 opérateurs (22 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Jasmine Paolini (Local)

Prévision 33.26%3.01cote équitable
EV +13.08%
Avantage +3.85%
Kelly +5.45%
Croissance +0.712%

avec la cote maximale 3.40

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
28.12%34.23%32.71%43.42%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.152.732.803.4046.51%36.64%35.65%29.41%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Robin Montgomery (Visiteur)

Prévision 66.74%1.50cote équitable
EV +12.79%
Avantage +7.57%
Kelly +18.54%
Croissance +2.37%

avec la cote maximale 1.69

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
56.58%65.77%67.29%71.88%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.321.461.401.6975.76%68.70%71.43%59.17%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (66 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
1xBet2.21I 45.25%NM 43.33%EV -26.50%E -11.99%K -21.90%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.67%EV +12.79%E +7.57%K +18.54%G +2.37%4.4%2026-06-30 10:02
BetOnline.ag2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -21.84%E -9.30%K -16.18%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV +10.12%E +6.14%K +15.58%G +1.58%3.2%2026-06-30 10:09
Bovada2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -23.51%E -10.22%K -18.08%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV +10.12%E +6.14%K +15.58%G +1.58%4.1%2026-06-30 10:01
BetUS2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -25.17%E -11.19%K -20.14%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV +10.12%E +6.14%K +15.58%G +1.58%5.1%2026-06-30 09:59
SportsBet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -28.50%E -13.25%K -24.78%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV +10.12%E +6.14%K +15.58%G +1.58%7.1%2026-06-30 10:07
Ladbrokes (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -25.17%E -11.19%K -20.14%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV +9.46%E +5.77%K +14.78%G +1.40%5.4%2026-06-30 10:02
Neds2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -25.17%E -11.19%K -20.14%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV +9.46%E +5.77%K +14.78%G +1.40%5.4%2026-06-30 10:01
ReBet2.34I 42.74%NM 41.06%EV -22.18%E -9.48%K -16.55%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.94%EV +8.79%E +5.39%K +13.95%G +1.23%4.1%2026-06-30 09:58
Marathon Bet2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -24.50%E -10.80%K -19.30%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV +8.79%E +5.39%K +13.95%G +1.23%5.4%2026-06-30 10:06
Pinnacle2.37I 42.19%NM 40.60%EV -21.18%E -8.94%K -15.46%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.40%EV +8.12%E +5.01%K +13.10%G +1.06%3.9%2026-06-30 10:10
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -23.51%E -10.22%K -18.08%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV +8.12%E +5.01%K +13.10%G +1.06%5.2%2026-06-30 10:09
Dabble (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -23.51%E -10.22%K -18.08%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV +8.12%E +5.01%K +13.10%G +1.06%5.2%2026-06-30 10:06
BetAnything2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -23.51%E -10.22%K -18.08%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV +8.12%E +5.01%K +13.10%G +1.06%5.2%2026-06-30 10:04
betfred_uk2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -25.17%E -11.19%K -20.14%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV +8.12%E +5.01%K +13.10%G +1.06%6.2%2026-06-30 10:00
GTbets2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -21.18%E -8.94%K -15.46%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV +7.45%E +4.63%K +12.22%G +0.911%4.3%2026-06-30 10:02
Unibet (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -23.51%E -10.22%K -18.08%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV +7.45%E +4.63%K +12.22%G +0.911%5.6%2026-06-30 10:06
PlayUp2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -23.51%E -10.22%K -18.08%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV +6.79%E +4.24%K +11.31%G +0.768%6.0%2026-06-30 10:06
Everygame2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -23.51%E -10.22%K -18.08%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV +6.79%E +4.24%K +11.31%G +0.768%6.0%2026-06-30 09:59
Betr (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -23.51%E -10.22%K -18.08%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV +6.79%E +4.24%K +11.31%G +0.768%6.0%2026-06-30 10:02
MyBookie.ag2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -23.51%E -10.22%K -18.08%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV +6.79%E +4.24%K +11.31%G +0.768%6.0%2026-06-30 10:08
NetBet (FR)2.27I 44.05%NM 41.04%EV -24.50%E -10.80%K -19.30%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.96%EV +5.45%E +3.45%K +9.40%G +0.513%7.3%2026-06-30 10:02
BetRivers2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -20.85%E -8.76%K -15.11%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV +4.79%E +3.05%K +8.40%G +0.402%5.7%2026-06-30 09:59
FanDuel2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -10.20%E -3.78%K -6.00%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -1.22%E -0.825%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-30 10:10
Betclic (FR)2.53I 39.53%NM 36.43%EV -15.86%E -6.27%K -10.36%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.57%EV -3.22%E -2.22%K -7.16%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-30 10:08
Bet Victor2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -10.20%E -3.78%K -6.00%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -3.89%E -2.70%K -8.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-30 10:08
Coral2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -10.20%E -3.78%K -6.00%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -3.89%E -2.70%K -8.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-30 10:09
Fanatics2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -3.55%E -1.22%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.23%E -3.68%K -12.44%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-30 10:08
Coolbet3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -0.227%E -0.076%K -0.113%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -6.56%E -4.69%K -16.40%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-30 10:10
Unibet (UK)2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -1.89%E -0.640%K -0.969%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.56%E -4.69%K -16.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-30 10:10
DraftKings2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.55%E -1.22%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.56%E -4.69%K -16.40%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-30 10:10
theScore Bet2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.55%E -1.22%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.56%E -4.69%K -16.40%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-30 10:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -4.22%E -1.46%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -6.56%E -4.69%K -16.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-30 10:10
888sport2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.54%E -3.11%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.56%E -4.69%K -16.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-30 10:10
Mr Green (SE)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.54%E -3.11%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.56%E -4.69%K -16.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-30 10:09
888sport (SE)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.54%E -3.11%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.56%E -4.69%K -16.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-30 10:09
Fliff2.70I 37.04%NM 33.99%EV -10.20%E -3.78%K -6.00%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 66.01%EV -7.23%E -5.20%K -18.53%G +0.000%9.0%2026-06-30 10:09
TAB2.70I 37.04%NM 33.82%EV -10.20%E -3.78%K -6.00%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.18%EV -7.90%E -5.72%K -20.78%G +0.000%9.5%2026-06-30 10:09
NordicBet2.86I 34.97%NM 32.39%EV -4.88%E -1.71%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 67.61%EV -8.56%E -6.25%K -23.14%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-30 10:09
Betsson2.86I 34.97%NM 32.39%EV -4.88%E -1.71%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 67.61%EV -8.56%E -6.25%K -23.14%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-30 10:09
Betway3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV +8.09%E +2.49%K +3.59%G +0.291%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -9.23%E -6.79%K -25.64%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-30 10:10
Unibet (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +3.10%E +1.000%K +1.48%G +0.046%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -9.23%E -6.79%K -25.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-30 10:10
Unibet (NL)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +3.10%E +1.000%K +1.48%G +0.046%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -9.23%E -6.79%K -25.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-30 10:09
Casumo3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +3.10%E +1.000%K +1.48%G +0.046%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -9.23%E -6.79%K -25.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-30 10:10
Unibet3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +3.10%E +1.000%K +1.48%G +0.046%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -9.23%E -6.79%K -25.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-30 10:09
Hard Rock Bet3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +3.10%E +1.000%K +1.48%G +0.046%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -9.23%E -6.79%K -25.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-30 10:09
ATG (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +3.10%E +1.000%K +1.48%G +0.046%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -9.23%E -6.79%K -25.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-30 10:10
Svenska Spel3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +3.10%E +1.000%K +1.48%G +0.046%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -9.23%E -6.79%K -25.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-30 10:09
betPARX3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +3.10%E +1.000%K +1.48%G +0.046%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -9.23%E -6.79%K -25.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-30 10:09
Caesars3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -0.227%E -0.076%K -0.113%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -9.23%E -6.79%K -25.64%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-30 10:09
Paddy Power2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -4.22%E -1.46%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -9.23%E -6.79%K -25.64%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-30 10:09
Sky Bet2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -4.22%E -1.46%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -9.23%E -6.79%K -25.64%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-30 10:09
Winamax (DE)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.09%EV -8.54%E -3.11%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.91%EV -9.23%E -6.79%K -25.64%G +0.000%9.9%2026-06-30 10:09
PointsBet (AU)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV +1.44%E +0.471%K +0.701%G +0.010%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -9.90%E -7.33%K -28.28%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-30 10:09
Grosvenor3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV +1.44%E +0.471%K +0.701%G +0.010%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -9.90%E -7.33%K -28.28%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-30 10:09
TABtouch3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV +1.44%E +0.471%K +0.701%G +0.010%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -9.90%E -7.33%K -28.28%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-30 10:09
Tipico (DE)3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -0.227%E -0.076%K -0.113%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -9.90%E -7.33%K -28.28%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-30 10:09
BetMGM3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV +3.10%E +1.000%K +1.48%G +0.046%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -10.57%E -7.88%K -31.07%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-30 10:09
Virgin Bet3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV +1.44%E +0.471%K +0.701%G +0.010%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.48%EV -10.57%E -7.88%K -31.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-30 10:09
LiveScore Bet3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV +1.44%E +0.471%K +0.701%G +0.010%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.48%EV -10.57%E -7.88%K -31.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-30 10:10
PMU (FR)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV +1.44%E +0.471%K +0.701%G +0.010%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.48%EV -10.57%E -7.88%K -31.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-30 10:09
Bally Bet3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV +1.44%E +0.471%K +0.701%G +0.010%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.48%EV -10.57%E -7.88%K -31.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-30 10:09
Winamax (FR)2.70I 37.04%NM 33.17%EV -10.20%E -3.78%K -6.00%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 66.83%EV -10.57%E -7.88%K -31.07%G +0.000%11.7%2026-06-30 10:09
BoyleSports3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV +13.08%E +3.85%K +5.45%G +0.712%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -11.23%E -8.45%K -34.04%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-30 10:09
Ladbrokes (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV +3.10%E +1.000%K +1.48%G +0.046%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -11.23%E -8.45%K -34.04%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-30 10:10
LeoVegas3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -0.227%E -0.076%K -0.113%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -11.23%E -8.45%K -34.04%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-30 10:09
LeoVegas (SE)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -0.227%E -0.076%K -0.113%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -11.90%E -9.02%K -37.19%G +0.000%9.1%2026-06-30 10:10
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (7)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91%1.60I 62.50%NM 62.09%0.7%2026-06-30 10:09
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.94I 34.01%NM 33.78%1.50I 66.67%NM 66.22%0.7%2026-06-30 10:09
Matchbook3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92%0.7%2026-06-30 10:10
ProphetX3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92%0.7%2026-06-30 10:10
Smarkets2.92I 34.25%NM 33.79%1.49I 67.11%NM 66.21%1.4%2026-06-30 10:09
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.34I 42.74%NM 42.08%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.92%1.6%2026-06-30 10:09
Novig3.03I 33.00%NM 31.76%1.41I 70.92%NM 68.24%3.9%2026-06-30 10:09