Language:English
Jasmine Paolini v Maria Sakkari
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Jasmine Paolini (Local)
Prediction 53.58%1.87fair odd
EV -0.884%
Edge -0.478%
Kelly -1.04%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.07%53.61%53.60%55.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.761.761.8560.61%56.83%56.82%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Maria Sakkari (Visit)
Prediction 46.42%2.15fair odd
EV -1.12%
Edge -0.525%
Kelly -0.989%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.13
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.68%46.39%46.40%48.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.042.042.1352.36%49.12%49.02%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jasmine Paolini (Local): 53.58%; Maria Sakkari (Visit): 46.42%. For Jasmine Paolini (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.87. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.85, with an expected value of -0.884%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (66 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.81%EV -0.884%E -0.478%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 47.19%EV -3.90%E -1.89%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-07-04 12:55 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -0.884%E -0.478%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -8.08%E -4.08%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-04 13:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -0.884%E -0.478%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -9.47%E -4.86%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-04 13:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -1.96%E -1.07%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -7.15%E -3.58%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-04 12:54 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -1.96%E -1.07%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -7.15%E -3.58%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-04 13:03 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -1.96%E -1.07%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -9.47%E -4.86%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-04 13:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -1.96%E -1.07%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -11.33%E -5.93%K -12.45%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-04 12:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.33%EV -2.49%E -1.37%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.67%EV -3.44%E -1.65%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-07-04 12:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -2.49%E -1.37%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -6.22%E -3.08%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-04 12:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.99%EV -3.03%E -1.67%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.01%EV -5.30%E -2.60%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-04 12:55 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 54.20%EV -3.56%E -1.98%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 45.80%EV -1.12%E -0.525%K -0.989%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-07-04 12:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.56%E -1.98%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.83%E -2.36%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-04 12:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.56%E -1.98%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.83%E -2.36%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-04 13:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.13%EV -3.56%E -1.98%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.87%EV -5.30%E -2.60%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-04 12:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.56%E -1.98%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.15%E -3.58%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-04 12:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.56%E -1.98%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.15%E -3.58%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-04 12:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.56%E -1.98%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.15%E -3.58%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-04 12:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.56%E -1.98%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.15%E -3.58%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-04 12:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.56%E -1.98%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.15%E -3.58%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-04 13:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.56%E -1.98%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.15%E -3.58%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-04 12:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.56%E -1.98%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.15%E -3.58%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-04 12:55 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.56%E -1.98%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.15%E -3.58%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-04 12:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.56%E -1.98%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.15%E -3.58%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-04 13:05 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.56%E -1.98%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.47%E -4.86%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-04 13:04 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.56%E -1.98%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.47%E -4.86%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-04 12:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.12%EV -4.63%E -2.60%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.88%EV -2.51%E -1.20%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-04 12:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.12%EV -4.63%E -2.60%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.88%EV -2.51%E -1.20%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-04 12:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -4.63%E -2.60%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -7.15%E -3.58%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-04 12:55 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.17%E -2.92%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.51%E -1.20%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-04 12:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.17%E -2.92%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.83%E -2.36%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-04 12:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.17%E -2.92%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.15%E -3.58%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-04 13:01 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%EV -5.17%E -2.92%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.20%EV -8.08%E -4.08%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-04 13:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -5.71%E -3.24%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -4.37%E -2.12%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-04 12:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.56%EV -5.71%E -3.24%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.44%EV -5.76%E -2.84%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-04 13:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -6.24%E -3.57%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -6.22%E -3.08%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-04 12:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -6.24%E -3.57%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -9.47%E -4.86%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-04 12:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -6.24%E -3.57%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -9.47%E -4.86%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-04 12:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -6.78%E -3.89%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -2.51%E -1.20%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-04 12:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -6.78%E -3.89%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -2.51%E -1.20%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-04 13:05 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21%EV -6.78%E -3.89%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.79%EV -4.37%E -2.12%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-04 12:54 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.78%E -3.89%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.83%E -2.36%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-04 12:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.97%EV -6.78%E -3.89%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.03%EV -5.30%E -2.60%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-04 12:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.97%EV -6.78%E -3.89%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.03%EV -5.30%E -2.60%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-04 13:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.33%EV -6.78%E -3.89%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.67%EV -11.33%E -5.93%K -12.45%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-04 13:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.31%E -4.23%K -10.02%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.15%E -3.58%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-04 13:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.31%E -4.23%K -10.02%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.15%E -3.58%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-04 13:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.31%E -4.23%K -10.02%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.15%E -3.58%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-04 13:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -7.85%E -4.56%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -1.58%E -0.746%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-04 12:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -7.85%E -4.56%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -2.51%E -1.20%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-04 12:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -8.38%E -4.90%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -2.51%E -1.20%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-04 13:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -8.38%E -4.90%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -2.51%E -1.20%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-04 12:53 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -8.38%E -4.90%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -2.51%E -1.20%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-04 13:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -8.38%E -4.90%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -2.51%E -1.20%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-04 13:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -8.38%E -4.90%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -2.51%E -1.20%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-04 13:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -8.38%E -4.90%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -2.51%E -1.20%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-04 13:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -8.38%E -4.90%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -2.51%E -1.20%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-04 13:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -8.38%E -4.90%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -2.51%E -1.20%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-04 12:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -8.38%E -4.90%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -2.51%E -1.20%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-04 13:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -8.92%E -5.25%K -12.74%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -3.44%E -1.65%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-04 13:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -8.92%E -5.25%K -12.74%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -3.44%E -1.65%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-04 13:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.32%EV -9.99%E -5.95%K -14.69%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.68%EV -3.44%E -1.65%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-04 13:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.20%EV -9.99%E -5.95%K -14.69%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.80%EV -3.90%E -1.89%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-04 13:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.20%EV -9.99%E -5.95%K -14.69%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.80%EV -3.90%E -1.89%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-04 13:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.20%EV -9.99%E -5.95%K -14.69%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.80%EV -3.90%E -1.89%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-04 13:04 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 53.89%EV -11.06%E -6.66%K -16.76%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 46.11%EV -9.94%E -5.12%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-04 13:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.28%EV -11.60%E -7.03%K -17.84%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 44.72%EV -5.30%E -2.60%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-04 13:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 53.00% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 47.00% | 0.4% | 2026-07-04 13:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 53.00% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 47.00% | 0.4% | 2026-07-04 13:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 53.00% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 47.00% | 0.4% | 2026-07-04 13:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.63% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.37% | 0.8% | 2026-07-04 13:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.76% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.24% | 0.8% | 2026-07-04 13:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.84I 54.35%NM 53.06% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.94% | 2.4% | 2026-07-04 13:05 |
| Novig◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.33% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.67% | 3.0% | 2026-07-04 13:05 |