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Liudmila Samsonova v Madison Keys
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Liudmila Samsonova (Local)
Prediction 26.05%3.84fair odd
EV +0.290%
Edge +0.075%
Kelly +0.102%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.05%26.27%26.01%28.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.603.653.8530.77%27.75%27.40%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Madison Keys (Visit)
Prediction 73.95%1.35fair odd
EV -1.65%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -4.99%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.33
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.59%73.73%73.99%74.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.241.281.281.3380.65%77.89%78.13%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Liudmila Samsonova (Local): 26.05%; Madison Keys (Visit): 73.95%. For Liudmila Samsonova (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.84. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.290%.
Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.24%EV +0.290%E +0.075%K +0.102%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.76%EV -3.86%E -2.97%K -12.88%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-07-27 21:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -1.01%E -0.266%K -0.362%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -6.08%E -4.79%K -22.53%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-27 11:20 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -2.31%E -0.617%K -0.842%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.60%E -3.57%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-27 21:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -2.31%E -0.617%K -0.842%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.60%E -3.57%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-27 10:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -2.31%E -0.617%K -0.842%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.60%E -3.57%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-27 06:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.65%EV -2.58%E -0.689%K -0.940%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.35%EV -4.60%E -3.57%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-27 18:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.65%EV -2.58%E -0.689%K -0.940%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.35%EV -4.60%E -3.57%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-27 18:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -3.62%E -0.978%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.34%E -4.17%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-27 06:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -3.62%E -0.978%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.34%E -4.17%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-27 06:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -3.62%E -0.978%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.34%E -4.17%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-27 06:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -3.62%E -0.978%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.34%E -4.17%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-27 06:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -3.62%E -0.978%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.34%E -4.17%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-27 06:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -3.62%E -0.978%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.34%E -4.17%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-27 06:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -3.62%E -0.978%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.34%E -4.17%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-27 06:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -3.62%E -0.978%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.34%E -4.17%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-27 06:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -3.62%E -0.978%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.34%E -4.17%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-27 06:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -3.62%E -0.978%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.34%E -4.17%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-27 06:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -3.62%E -0.978%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.34%E -4.17%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-27 06:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -3.62%E -0.978%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.34%E -4.17%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-27 21:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -3.62%E -0.978%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.34%E -4.17%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-27 06:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -3.62%E -0.978%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -6.08%E -4.79%K -22.53%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-27 21:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -3.62%E -0.978%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -6.08%E -4.79%K -22.53%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-27 21:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -3.62%E -0.978%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -7.56%E -6.05%K -30.25%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-27 06:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.67I 27.25%NM 26.01%EV -4.40%E -1.20%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.99%EV -4.60%E -3.57%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-27 02:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.56%EV -4.92%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.44%EV -2.39%E -1.81%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-07-27 20:05 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.92%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.60%E -3.57%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-27 21:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.92%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.60%E -3.57%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-27 19:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -4.92%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -6.08%E -4.79%K -22.53%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-27 15:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -4.92%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -6.08%E -4.79%K -22.53%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-27 08:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -4.92%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -6.08%E -4.79%K -22.53%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-27 08:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -6.22%E -1.73%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.60%E -3.57%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-27 17:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -6.22%E -1.73%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.60%E -3.57%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-27 10:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -6.22%E -1.73%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -5.34%E -4.17%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-27 19:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -6.22%E -1.73%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -5.34%E -4.17%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-27 09:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -6.22%E -1.73%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -5.34%E -4.17%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-27 09:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -6.22%E -1.73%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -5.34%E -4.17%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-27 09:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -6.22%E -1.73%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -6.82%E -5.41%K -26.24%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-27 06:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.62%EV -6.22%E -1.73%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.38%EV -8.30%E -6.69%K -34.59%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-27 19:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.83%E -2.52%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.86%E -2.97%K -12.88%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-27 21:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.83%E -2.52%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.86%E -2.97%K -12.88%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-27 21:51 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.83%E -2.52%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.86%E -2.97%K -12.88%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-27 21:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.83%E -2.52%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.86%E -2.97%K -12.88%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-27 21:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.83%E -2.52%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.86%E -2.97%K -12.88%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-27 20:04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -8.83%E -2.52%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -4.60%E -3.57%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-27 01:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -8.83%E -2.52%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -4.60%E -3.57%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-27 06:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -8.83%E -2.52%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -4.60%E -3.57%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-27 10:30 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -8.83%E -2.52%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -4.60%E -3.57%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-27 09:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -8.83%E -2.52%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -5.34%E -4.17%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-27 19:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -8.83%E -2.52%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -5.34%E -4.17%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-27 08:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -8.83%E -2.52%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -5.34%E -4.17%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-27 09:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -8.83%E -2.52%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -7.56%E -6.05%K -30.25%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-27 02:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -8.83%E -2.52%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -7.56%E -6.05%K -30.25%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-27 08:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -10.13%E -2.94%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -3.86%E -2.97%K -12.88%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-27 21:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -11.43%E -3.36%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -1.65%E -1.24%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-27 10:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -12.73%E -3.80%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -3.86%E -2.97%K -12.88%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-27 02:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -12.73%E -3.80%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -3.86%E -2.97%K -12.88%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-27 02:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -15.34%E -4.72%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -4.60%E -3.57%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-27 21:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -15.34%E -4.72%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -4.60%E -3.57%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-27 21:51 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19% | 0.8% | 2026-07-27 21:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19% | 0.8% | 2026-07-27 21:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19% | 0.8% | 2026-07-27 21:46 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19% | 0.8% | 2026-07-27 21:41 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.67% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.33% | 1.3% | 2026-07-27 21:55 |
| Novig◎ | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.90% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 75.10% | 2.4% | 2026-07-27 21:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.10% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.90% | 3.5% | 2026-07-27 21:55 |
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