Language:English
Paula Badosa v Coco Gauff
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Paula Badosa (Local)
Prediction 15.53%6.44fair odd
EV +9.67%
Edge +1.37%
Kelly +1.60%
Growth +0.154%
assuming max odds 7.06
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.80%15.51%15.61%17.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.405.976.007.0618.52%16.76%16.67%14.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Coco Gauff (Visit)
Prediction 84.47%1.18fair odd
EV -2.02%
Edge -1.74%
Kelly -12.62%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.16
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
82.57%84.49%84.39%86.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.101.131.131.1690.91%88.51%88.50%86.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Paula Badosa (Local): 15.53%; Coco Gauff (Visit): 84.47%. For Paula Badosa (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.44. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.06, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.67%.
Sportsbook Odds (66 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 7.06I 14.16%NM 13.80%EV +9.67%E +1.37%K +1.60%G +0.154% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 86.20%EV -4.55%E -4.03%K -35.02%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-09-03 23:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.92%EV +0.970%E +0.149%K +0.176%G +0.002% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 85.08%EV -3.71%E -3.25%K -26.49%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-09-03 23:02 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.81%EV +0.970%E +0.149%K +0.176%G +0.002% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 85.19%EV -4.55%E -4.03%K -35.02%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-03 09:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV +0.970%E +0.149%K +0.176%G +0.002% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -5.40%E -4.82%K -44.98%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-03 03:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +0.970%E +0.149%K +0.176%G +0.002% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.24%E -5.62%K -56.75%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 19:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +0.970%E +0.149%K +0.176%G +0.002% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.24%E -5.62%K -56.75%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 19:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +0.970%E +0.149%K +0.176%G +0.002% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.24%E -5.62%K -56.75%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 21:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +0.970%E +0.149%K +0.176%G +0.002% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.24%E -5.62%K -56.75%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 21:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +0.970%E +0.149%K +0.176%G +0.002% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.24%E -5.62%K -56.75%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 20:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV +0.970%E +0.149%K +0.176%G +0.002% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -7.09%E -6.44%K -70.87%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-03 08:20 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 6.45I 15.50%NM 14.68%EV +0.193%E +0.030%K +0.035%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.32%EV -6.24%E -5.62%K -56.75%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 22:54 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 6.30I 15.87%NM 15.09%EV -2.14%E -0.339%K -0.403%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.91%EV -5.40%E -4.82%K -44.98%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-03 20:05 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 6.30I 15.87%NM 15.09%EV -2.14%E -0.339%K -0.403%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.91%EV -5.40%E -4.82%K -44.98%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-03 20:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 6.30I 15.87%NM 14.86%EV -2.14%E -0.339%K -0.403%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.14%EV -7.09%E -6.44%K -70.87%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-03 23:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -2.91%E -0.466%K -0.555%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -4.55%E -4.03%K -35.02%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-03 09:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -2.91%E -0.466%K -0.555%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.40%E -4.82%K -44.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 21:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -2.91%E -0.466%K -0.555%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.40%E -4.82%K -44.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 21:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -2.91%E -0.466%K -0.555%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -6.24%E -5.62%K -56.75%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-03 21:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 6.22I 16.08%NM 15.72%EV -3.38%E -0.543%K -0.647%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 84.28%EV -2.02%E -1.74%K -12.62%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-09-03 23:09 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.42%EV -3.69%E -0.595%K -0.710%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.58%EV -4.55%E -4.03%K -35.02%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-03 19:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.18%EV -3.69%E -0.595%K -0.710%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.82%EV -6.24%E -5.62%K -56.75%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-03 23:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.51%EV -5.24%E -0.860%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.49%EV -5.40%E -4.82%K -44.98%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-03 22:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 6.05I 16.53%NM 15.74%EV -6.02%E -0.995%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.26%EV -4.55%E -4.03%K -35.02%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-03 19:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.08%EV -6.80%E -1.13%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.92%EV -2.86%E -2.49%K -19.09%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-03 23:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.08%EV -6.80%E -1.13%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.92%EV -2.86%E -2.49%K -19.09%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-03 23:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -6.80%E -1.13%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.55%E -4.03%K -35.02%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-03 23:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -6.80%E -1.13%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.55%E -4.03%K -35.02%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-03 23:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -6.80%E -1.13%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.55%E -4.03%K -35.02%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-03 22:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -6.80%E -1.13%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.55%E -4.03%K -35.02%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-03 19:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -6.80%E -1.13%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.40%E -4.82%K -44.98%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-03 20:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -6.80%E -1.13%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.40%E -4.82%K -44.98%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-03 22:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -6.80%E -1.13%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.40%E -4.82%K -44.98%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-03 21:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -6.80%E -1.13%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.40%E -4.82%K -44.98%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-02 21:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -6.80%E -1.13%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.40%E -4.82%K -44.98%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-03 19:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -6.80%E -1.13%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.24%E -5.62%K -56.75%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-03 23:10 |
| Caesars🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -6.80%E -1.13%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.24%E -5.62%K -56.75%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-03 04:18 |
| BetUS🎯 | 5.94I 16.84%NM 15.98%EV -7.73%E -1.30%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.02%EV -4.55%E -4.03%K -35.02%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 23:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 5.91I 16.92%NM 16.17%EV -8.20%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.83%EV -3.71%E -3.25%K -26.49%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-03 23:00 |
| ReBet🎯 | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.95%EV -8.35%E -1.42%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.05%EV -5.40%E -4.82%K -44.98%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-03 23:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 5.89I 16.98%NM 15.98%EV -8.51%E -1.44%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.02%EV -5.40%E -4.82%K -44.98%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-03 23:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 5.89I 16.98%NM 15.98%EV -8.51%E -1.44%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.02%EV -5.40%E -4.82%K -44.98%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-03 23:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -10.68%E -1.86%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -4.55%E -4.03%K -35.02%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-03 23:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -10.68%E -1.86%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -4.55%E -4.03%K -35.02%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-03 23:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 5.65I 17.70%NM 16.91%EV -12.23%E -2.17%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.09%EV -2.86%E -2.49%K -19.09%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-03 22:50 |
| Fliff🎯 | 5.65I 17.70%NM 16.30%EV -12.23%E -2.17%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.70%EV -7.09%E -6.44%K -70.87%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-03 23:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -13.01%E -2.32%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -2.86%E -2.49%K -19.09%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 23:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -13.01%E -2.32%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -2.86%E -2.49%K -19.09%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 23:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -13.01%E -2.32%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -2.86%E -2.49%K -19.09%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 23:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -13.01%E -2.32%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -2.86%E -2.49%K -19.09%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 23:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -13.01%E -2.32%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -2.86%E -2.49%K -19.09%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 23:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -13.01%E -2.32%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -2.86%E -2.49%K -19.09%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 23:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -13.01%E -2.32%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -2.86%E -2.49%K -19.09%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 23:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -13.01%E -2.32%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -2.86%E -2.49%K -19.09%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 23:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -13.01%E -2.32%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -2.86%E -2.49%K -19.09%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 23:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -13.01%E -2.32%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -2.86%E -2.49%K -19.09%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 23:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -13.01%E -2.32%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -2.86%E -2.49%K -19.09%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 23:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -13.01%E -2.32%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -2.86%E -2.49%K -19.09%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 23:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -13.01%E -2.32%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -2.86%E -2.49%K -19.09%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 23:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -13.01%E -2.32%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -2.86%E -2.49%K -19.09%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 23:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -14.56%E -2.65%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -2.86%E -2.49%K -19.09%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 23:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -14.56%E -2.65%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -3.71%E -3.25%K -26.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-03 23:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -14.56%E -2.65%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -3.71%E -3.25%K -26.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-03 23:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -14.56%E -2.65%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -4.55%E -4.03%K -35.02%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 22:59 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -14.56%E -2.65%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -4.55%E -4.03%K -35.02%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 22:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -14.56%E -2.65%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -6.24%E -5.62%K -56.75%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-03 23:07 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV -16.12%E -2.98%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.57%EV -3.71%E -3.25%K -26.49%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-03 23:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.06% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.94% | 0.6% | 2026-09-03 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.06% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.94% | 0.6% | 2026-09-03 23:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.06% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.94% | 0.6% | 2026-09-03 23:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.06% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.94% | 0.6% | 2026-09-03 23:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.06% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.94% | 0.6% | 2026-09-03 23:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 6.67I 14.99%NM 14.81% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.19% | 1.2% | 2026-09-03 23:10 |
| Novig◎ | 6.67I 14.99%NM 14.81% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.19% | 1.2% | 2026-09-03 23:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.34% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 84.66% | 1.8% | 2026-09-03 23:10 |