Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Madison Keys v Alina Korneeva

2026-08-30 15:00 UTC — WTA US Open

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Madison Keys (Local)

Prediction 72.72%1.38fair odd
EV -4.74%
Edge -3.62%
Kelly -15.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.75%72.75%72.63%73.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.241.291.301.3180.65%77.25%76.92%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Alina Korneeva (Visit)

Prediction 27.28%3.67fair odd
EV -1.79%
Edge -0.496%
Kelly -0.687%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.08%27.25%27.37%29.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.453.503.6033.33%28.96%28.57%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Madison Keys (Local): 72.72%; Alina Korneeva (Visit): 27.28%. For Alina Korneeva (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.67. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.60, with an expected value of -1.79%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.74%E -3.62%K -15.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -4.51%E -1.29%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-27 21:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.30%EV -4.74%E -3.62%K -15.29%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.70%EV -6.70%E -1.96%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-27 20:35
GTbets🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.08%EV -5.47%E -4.20%K -18.22%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.92%EV -3.70%E -1.05%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-27 20:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.47%E -4.20%K -18.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.51%E -1.29%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-27 20:35
Betway🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.47%E -4.20%K -18.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.51%E -1.29%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-27 20:35
BetRivers🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.47%E -4.20%K -18.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.51%E -1.29%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-27 20:36
ATG (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.47%E -4.20%K -18.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.51%E -1.29%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-27 20:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.47%E -4.20%K -18.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.51%E -1.29%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-27 20:35
Grosvenor🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.47%E -4.20%K -18.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.51%E -1.29%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-27 21:40
Casumo🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.47%E -4.20%K -18.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.51%E -1.29%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-27 21:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.47%E -4.20%K -18.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.51%E -1.29%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-27 21:40
betPARX🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.47%E -4.20%K -18.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.51%E -1.29%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-27 21:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.47%E -4.20%K -18.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.51%E -1.29%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-27 21:45
Bally Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.47%E -4.20%K -18.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.51%E -1.29%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-27 21:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.47%E -4.20%K -18.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.51%E -1.29%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-27 21:50
TABtouch🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.47%E -4.20%K -18.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.51%E -1.29%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-27 22:00
Unibet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.47%E -4.20%K -18.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.51%E -1.29%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-27 22:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.47%E -4.20%K -18.22%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.88%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-27 21:00
Fanatics🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.47%E -4.20%K -18.22%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.88%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-27 21:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.47%E -4.20%K -18.22%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.88%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-27 21:55
DraftKings🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -6.19%E -4.80%K -21.36%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -3.15%E -0.887%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-27 21:40
theScore Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.19%E -4.80%K -21.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -7.24%E -2.13%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-27 20:35
MyBookie.ag🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.02%EV -6.19%E -4.80%K -21.36%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 27.98%EV -9.42%E -2.84%K -4.06%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-27 20:35
LeoVegas🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.35%EV -6.92%E -5.41%K -24.72%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.65%EV -8.61%E -2.57%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-27 20:35
SportsBet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -7.65%E -6.02%K -28.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -1.79%E -0.496%K -0.687%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-27 20:34
ReBet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.59%EV -7.65%E -6.02%K -28.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.41%EV -12.70%E -3.97%K -5.77%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-27 21:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 70.75%EV -9.83%E -7.93%K -40.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.25%EV -18.15%E -6.05%K -9.08%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-27 20:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.25I 80.00%NM 70.93%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.07%12.8%2026-08-27 20:36