Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Aryna Sabalenka v Linda Noskova

2026-09-08 15:30 UTC — WTA US Open

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Aryna Sabalenka (Local)

Predicción 69.91%1.43momio equitativo
EV -2.13%
Ventaja -1.52%
Kelly -5.33%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
68.18%69.87%70.00%71.02%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.301.351.351.4076.92%74.09%74.07%71.43%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Linda Noskova (Visitante)

Predicción 30.09%3.32momio equitativo
EV +0.815%
Ventaja +0.243%
Kelly +0.347%
Crecimiento +0.003%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.98%30.13%30.00%31.82%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.853.143.153.3535.09%31.85%31.75%29.85%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Aryna Sabalenka (Local): 69.91%; Linda Noskova (Visitante): 30.09%. Para Linda Noskova (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 3.32. 1 corredor ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 3.35, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +0.815%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.97%EV -4.23%E -3.09%K -11.43%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.03%EV +0.815%E +0.243%K +0.347%G +0.003%2.8%2026-09-07 01:25
DraftKings🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.02%EV -7.03%E -5.28%K -21.29%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.98%EV -1.89%E -0.581%K -0.838%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-06 23:30
Betway🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -4.93%E -3.62%K -13.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -2.19%E -0.675%K -0.975%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-06 22:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.33%E -4.72%K -18.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.19%E -0.675%K -0.975%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-07 01:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.33%E -4.72%K -18.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.19%E -0.675%K -0.975%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-07 01:25
Grosvenor🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.33%E -4.72%K -18.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.19%E -0.675%K -0.975%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-07 01:25
betPARX🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.33%E -4.72%K -18.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.19%E -0.675%K -0.975%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-07 01:24
ATG (SE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.33%E -4.72%K -18.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.19%E -0.675%K -0.975%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-07 01:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.33%E -4.72%K -18.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.19%E -0.675%K -0.975%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-07 01:25
BetRivers🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.33%E -4.72%K -18.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.19%E -0.675%K -0.975%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-07 01:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.33%E -4.72%K -18.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.19%E -0.675%K -0.975%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-07 01:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.33%E -4.72%K -18.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.19%E -0.675%K -0.975%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-07 01:25
Casumo🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.33%E -4.72%K -18.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.19%E -0.675%K -0.975%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-07 01:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.33%E -4.72%K -18.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.19%E -0.675%K -0.975%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-07 01:25
TABtouch🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.33%E -4.72%K -18.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.19%E -0.675%K -0.975%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-07 01:25
Unibet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.33%E -4.72%K -18.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.19%E -0.675%K -0.975%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-07 01:25
Bally Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.33%E -4.72%K -18.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.19%E -0.675%K -0.975%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-07 01:25
betfred_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -7.03%E -5.28%K -21.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -2.19%E -0.675%K -0.975%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-07 00:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -7.03%E -5.28%K -21.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -2.19%E -0.675%K -0.975%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-07 01:29
GTbets🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.93%EV -3.53%E -2.56%K -9.29%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 30.07%EV -3.40%E -1.06%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-06 23:30
1xBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.09%EV -4.23%E -3.09%K -11.43%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 29.91%EV -3.40%E -1.06%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-07 01:15
Bovada🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -4.93%E -3.62%K -13.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -3.70%E -1.16%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-06 23:35
Bet Right🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.63%E -4.17%K -16.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.70%E -1.16%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-07 01:10
Tipico (DE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -7.03%E -5.28%K -21.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -3.70%E -1.16%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-06 23:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -7.03%E -5.28%K -21.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -3.70%E -1.16%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-07 01:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.04%EV -4.93%E -3.62%K -13.69%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.96%EV -4.30%E -1.35%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-07 01:10
Fanatics🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.63%E -4.17%K -16.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -5.20%E -1.65%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-06 23:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.63%E -4.17%K -16.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -5.20%E -1.65%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-06 23:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.63%E -4.17%K -16.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -5.20%E -1.65%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-06 23:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.63%E -4.17%K -16.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -5.20%E -1.65%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-06 22:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.63%E -4.17%K -16.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -5.20%E -1.65%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-06 23:45
MyBookie.ag🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.93%EV -5.63%E -4.17%K -16.08%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.07%EV -5.50%E -1.75%K -2.57%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-06 23:48
Betsson🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.09%EV -6.33%E -4.72%K -18.61%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.91%EV -5.50%E -1.75%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-06 23:45
NordicBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.09%EV -6.33%E -4.72%K -18.61%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.91%EV -5.50%E -1.75%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-06 23:45
theScore Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.93%E -3.62%K -13.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.71%E -2.16%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-06 23:45
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.93%E -3.62%K -13.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.71%E -2.16%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-06 21:40
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.93%E -3.62%K -13.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.71%E -2.16%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-06 21:40
betano_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.93%E -3.62%K -13.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.71%E -2.16%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-07 00:28
BetMGM🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.93%E -3.62%K -13.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.71%E -2.16%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-06 22:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.93%E -3.62%K -13.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.71%E -2.16%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-06 23:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.93%E -3.62%K -13.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.71%E -2.16%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-06 23:05
Fliff🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -6.33%E -4.72%K -18.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -6.71%E -2.16%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-07 01:10
FanDuel🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -2.83%E -2.04%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -8.21%E -2.69%K -4.01%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-06 22:50
Neds🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -3.53%E -2.56%K -9.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -8.21%E -2.69%K -4.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 22:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -3.53%E -2.56%K -9.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -8.21%E -2.69%K -4.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 22:20
SportsBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.48%EV -6.33%E -4.72%K -18.61%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV -8.21%E -2.69%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-06 22:50
LeoVegas🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.63%EV -7.03%E -5.28%K -21.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.37%EV -8.21%E -2.69%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-06 23:45
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -2.13%E -1.52%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -9.72%E -3.24%K -4.86%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-06 22:51
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -2.13%E -1.52%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -9.72%E -3.24%K -4.86%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-06 22:50
PlayUp🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -3.53%E -2.56%K -9.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -9.72%E -3.24%K -4.86%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-06 22:40
TAB🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -3.53%E -2.56%K -9.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -9.72%E -3.24%K -4.86%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-06 22:40
Caesars🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.93%E -3.62%K -13.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -9.72%E -3.24%K -4.86%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 22:44
Coral🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -5.63%E -4.17%K -16.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -9.72%E -3.24%K -4.86%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-06 22:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -5.63%E -4.17%K -16.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -9.72%E -3.24%K -4.86%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-06 22:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.09%EV -7.72%E -5.85%K -24.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91%EV -11.22%E -3.80%K -5.75%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-06 23:44
ReBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 69.18%EV -8.42%E -6.43%K -27.17%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 30.82%EV -11.52%E -3.92%K -5.94%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-06 23:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 68.88%EV -8.42%E -6.43%K -27.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.12%EV -12.73%E -4.39%K -6.70%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-06 23:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.67%EV -9.12%E -7.02%K -30.41%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.33%EV -14.23%E -4.99%K -7.69%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-06 23:45
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.42I 70.42%NM 69.26%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.74%1.7%2026-09-07 02:25
Matchbook1.42I 70.42%NM 68.93%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.07%2.2%2026-09-07 01:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.42I 70.42%NM 68.93%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.07%2.2%2026-09-07 02:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 68.93%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.07%2.2%2026-09-07 02:30
ProphetX1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%4.4%2026-09-07 01:55
Smarkets1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%5.8%2026-09-07 02:35
Novig1.32I 75.76%NM 70.00%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.00%8.2%2026-09-07 01:15