Language:English
Aryna Sabalenka v Elena Rybakina
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Aryna Sabalenka (Local)
Prediction 58.07%1.72fair odd
EV -1.29%
Edge -0.757%
Kelly -1.84%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.19%58.19%58.14%60.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.631.641.7063.69%61.26%60.98%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Elena Rybakina (Visit)
Prediction 41.93%2.38fair odd
EV +2.74%
Edge +1.12%
Kelly +1.89%
Growth +0.052%
assuming max odds 2.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.25%41.81%41.86%43.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.072.292.302.4548.31%43.62%43.48%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aryna Sabalenka (Local): 58.07%; Elena Rybakina (Visit): 41.93%. For Elena Rybakina (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.38. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.74%.
Sportsbook Odds (66 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -7.67%E -4.83%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV +2.74%E +1.12%K +1.89%G +0.052% | 3.7% | 2026-09-12 20:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.60%EV -8.25%E -5.22%K -14.23%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.40%EV +1.90%E +0.781%K +1.33%G +0.025% | 4.4% | 2026-09-12 20:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.75%EV -8.83%E -5.63%K -15.50%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.25%EV +1.90%E +0.781%K +1.33%G +0.025% | 4.8% | 2026-09-12 20:07 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.75%EV -8.83%E -5.63%K -15.50%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.25%EV +1.90%E +0.781%K +1.33%G +0.025% | 4.8% | 2026-09-12 20:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.75%EV -8.83%E -5.63%K -15.50%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.25%EV +1.90%E +0.781%K +1.33%G +0.025% | 4.8% | 2026-09-12 20:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.75%EV -8.83%E -5.63%K -15.50%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.25%EV +1.90%E +0.781%K +1.33%G +0.025% | 4.8% | 2026-09-12 20:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.65%EV -5.35%E -3.28%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 40.35%EV +1.06%E +0.439%K +0.751%G +0.008% | 2.8% | 2026-09-12 20:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.65%EV -5.35%E -3.28%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 40.35%EV +1.06%E +0.439%K +0.751%G +0.008% | 2.8% | 2026-09-12 20:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -6.51%E -4.04%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV +0.639%E +0.266%K +0.457%G +0.003% | 3.8% | 2026-09-12 20:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -6.51%E -4.04%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -0.199%E -0.084%K -0.144%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-12 20:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -7.09%E -4.43%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -1.46%E -0.620%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-12 20:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -7.09%E -4.43%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -1.46%E -0.620%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-12 20:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.10%EV -2.45%E -1.46%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.90%EV -2.30%E -0.985%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-09-12 19:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.15%EV -3.03%E -1.81%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.85%EV -2.72%E -1.17%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-09-12 19:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -4.77%E -2.91%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -2.72%E -1.17%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-12 19:26 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -4.77%E -2.91%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -2.72%E -1.17%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-12 19:26 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -4.77%E -2.91%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -2.72%E -1.17%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-12 19:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -4.77%E -2.91%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -2.72%E -1.17%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-12 19:26 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -4.77%E -2.91%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -2.72%E -1.17%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-12 19:26 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -4.77%E -2.91%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -2.72%E -1.17%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-12 19:26 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -4.77%E -2.91%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -2.72%E -1.17%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-12 19:26 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -4.77%E -2.91%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -2.72%E -1.17%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-12 19:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -4.77%E -2.91%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -2.72%E -1.17%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-12 19:26 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -5.93%E -3.66%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -2.72%E -1.17%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-12 20:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.75%EV -1.87%E -1.10%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 2.31I 43.29%NM 42.25%EV -3.13%E -1.36%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-09-12 19:56 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.08%EV -3.61%E -2.17%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.92%EV -3.55%E -1.55%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-12 17:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.08%EV -3.61%E -2.17%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.92%EV -3.55%E -1.55%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-12 17:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.08%EV -3.61%E -2.17%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.92%EV -3.55%E -1.55%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-12 17:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.19%E -2.54%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.55%E -1.55%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-12 16:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.93%E -3.66%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.55%E -1.55%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-12 20:09 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.93%E -3.66%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.55%E -1.55%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-12 19:56 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.51%E -4.04%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -3.55%E -1.55%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-12 19:56 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.51%E -4.04%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -3.55%E -1.55%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-12 19:56 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.51%E -4.04%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -3.55%E -1.55%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-12 19:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -7.09%E -4.43%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -3.55%E -1.55%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-12 20:10 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -7.09%E -4.43%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -3.55%E -1.55%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-12 20:09 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -8.83%E -5.63%K -15.50%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -3.55%E -1.55%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-12 20:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -8.83%E -5.63%K -15.50%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -3.55%E -1.55%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-12 20:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.68%EV -2.45%E -1.46%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 42.32%EV -3.97%E -1.74%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-12 19:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -6.51%E -4.04%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -4.39%E -1.93%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-12 20:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -6.51%E -4.04%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -4.39%E -1.93%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-12 19:26 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.61%EV -3.03%E -1.81%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.39%EV -4.81%E -2.12%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-12 18:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -5.35%E -3.28%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -4.81%E -2.12%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-12 19:54 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.03%E -1.81%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -5.65%E -2.51%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.03%E -1.81%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -5.65%E -2.51%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-12 16:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.19%E -2.54%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.65%E -2.51%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-12 19:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.19%E -2.54%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.65%E -2.51%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-12 20:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -5.35%E -3.28%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.65%E -2.51%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-12 19:35 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.93%E -3.66%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.65%E -2.51%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-12 19:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.93%E -3.66%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.65%E -2.51%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-12 19:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.93%E -3.66%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.65%E -2.51%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.93%E -3.66%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.65%E -2.51%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-12 17:21 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -4.19%E -2.54%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%EV -6.07%E -2.71%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-12 19:35 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.92%EV -2.45%E -1.46%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.08%EV -6.91%E -3.11%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-12 19:50 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.81%EV -2.45%E -1.46%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.19%EV -7.33%E -3.32%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.40%EV -4.77%E -2.91%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 42.60%EV -7.33%E -3.32%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-12 18:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.40%EV -4.77%E -2.91%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 42.60%EV -7.33%E -3.32%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-12 18:31 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -1.29%E -0.757%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -7.75%E -3.52%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-12 20:09 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.03%E -1.81%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.75%E -3.52%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-12 19:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.03%E -1.81%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.75%E -3.52%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-12 19:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.03%E -1.81%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.75%E -3.52%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.03%E -1.81%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.75%E -3.52%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-12 17:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -4.19%E -2.54%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -7.75%E -3.52%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-12 14:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -1.29%E -0.757%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -8.59%E -3.94%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 57.49%EV -7.67%E -4.83%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.51%EV -9.84%E -4.58%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-12 20:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 56.71%EV -8.25%E -5.22%K -14.23%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 43.29%EV -13.20%E -6.38%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-12 20:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 59.08% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.92% | 0.2% | 2026-09-12 19:56 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.88% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 41.12% | 0.5% | 2026-09-12 19:56 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.88% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 41.12% | 0.5% | 2026-09-12 19:56 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 59.22% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78% | 0.5% | 2026-09-12 19:50 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16% | 0.5% | 2026-09-12 19:56 |
| Novig◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.92% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 41.08% | 1.0% | 2026-09-12 19:56 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.11% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.89% | 1.9% | 2026-09-12 19:56 |