Language:English
Elena Rybakina v Karolina Muchova
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Elena Rybakina (Local)
Prediction 80.73%1.24fair odd
EV +16.25%
Edge +11.29%
Kelly +36.94%
Growth +6.00%
assuming max odds 1.44
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.35%79.56%80.37%83.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.191.171.4489.29%83.98%85.47%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Karolina Muchova (Visit)
Prediction 19.27%5.19fair odd
EV +6.37%
Edge +1.15%
Kelly +1.41%
Growth +0.090%
assuming max odds 5.52
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.92%20.44%19.63%33.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.804.684.905.5235.71%21.35%20.41%18.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Elena Rybakina (Local): 80.73%; Karolina Muchova (Visit): 19.27%. For Elena Rybakina (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.24. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.44, corresponding to a positive expected value of +16.25%.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.74%EV +16.25%E +11.29%K +36.94%G +6.00% | 2.89I 34.60%NM 33.26%EV -44.31%E -15.33%K -23.45%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-19 11:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.74%EV +16.25%E +11.29%K +36.94%G +6.00% | 2.89I 34.60%NM 33.26%EV -44.31%E -15.33%K -23.45%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-19 11:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.74%EV +16.25%E +11.29%K +36.94%G +6.00% | 2.89I 34.60%NM 33.26%EV -44.31%E -15.33%K -23.45%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-19 11:07 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV +14.64%E +10.31%K +34.85%G +5.10% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -46.05%E -16.45%K -25.58%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-19 11:08 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV +13.02%E +9.30%K +32.56%G +4.24% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -44.12%E -15.21%K -23.22%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.68%EV +8.18%E +6.10%K +24.06%G +1.97% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.32%EV -40.65%E -13.20%K -19.54%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-19 11:08 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 80.29%EV -1.51%E -1.24%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 4.97I 20.12%NM 19.71%EV -4.23%E -0.852%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 2.1% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -3.93%E -3.30%K -20.69%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -8.47%E -1.78%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.62%EV -3.93%E -3.30%K -20.69%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.38%EV -10.40%E -2.24%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.74%E -4.01%K -26.32%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.65%E -0.731%K -0.914%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-19 11:18 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.74%E -4.01%K -26.32%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.65%E -0.731%K -0.914%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.74%E -4.01%K -26.32%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -5.58%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.74%E -4.01%K -26.32%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -5.58%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.74%E -4.01%K -26.32%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -5.58%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.74%E -4.01%K -26.32%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -5.58%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.74%E -4.01%K -26.32%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -5.58%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.74%E -4.01%K -26.32%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -5.58%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -4.74%E -4.01%K -26.32%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -9.43%E -2.01%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -4.74%E -4.01%K -26.32%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -9.43%E -2.01%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.51%EV -5.54%E -4.74%K -32.62%G +0.000% | 5.52I 18.12%NM 17.49%EV +6.37%E +1.15%K +1.41%G +0.090% | 3.6% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -5.54%E -4.74%K -32.62%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV +0.200%E +0.038%K +0.048%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.54%E -4.74%K -32.62%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -1.73%E -0.339%K -0.421%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -5.54%E -4.74%K -32.62%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -7.51%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -5.54%E -4.74%K -32.62%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -8.47%E -1.78%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-19 11:19 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.07%EV -5.54%E -4.74%K -32.62%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93%EV -9.43%E -2.01%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -5.54%E -4.74%K -32.62%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -11.36%E -2.47%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -5.54%E -4.74%K -32.62%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -11.36%E -2.47%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -5.54%E -4.74%K -32.62%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -11.36%E -2.47%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -5.54%E -4.74%K -32.62%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -11.36%E -2.47%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -6.35%E -5.48%K -39.70%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -3.65%E -0.731%K -0.914%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.37%EV -6.35%E -5.48%K -39.70%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -8.47%E -1.78%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.86%EV -6.35%E -5.48%K -39.70%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -11.36%E -2.47%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.14%EV -6.35%E -5.48%K -39.70%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -15.22%E -3.46%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-19 11:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -7.16%E -6.23%K -47.73%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +5.98%E +1.09%K +1.33%G +0.079% | 5.1% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -7.16%E -6.23%K -47.73%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -3.65%E -0.731%K -0.914%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.17%EV -7.16%E -6.23%K -47.73%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.83%EV -10.40%E -2.24%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.65%EV -7.16%E -6.23%K -47.73%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.35%EV -13.29%E -2.95%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -7.97%E -6.99%K -56.91%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV +1.16%E +0.222%K +0.274%G +0.003% | 6.8% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -7.97%E -6.99%K -56.91%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV +1.16%E +0.222%K +0.274%G +0.003% | 6.8% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.02%EV -7.97%E -6.99%K -56.91%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV +0.200%E +0.038%K +0.048%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.97%E -6.99%K -56.91%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -3.65%E -0.731%K -0.914%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.97%E -6.99%K -56.91%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -3.65%E -0.731%K -0.914%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.97%E -6.99%K -56.91%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -3.65%E -0.731%K -0.914%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.97%E -6.99%K -56.91%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -3.65%E -0.731%K -0.914%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.41%EV -8.77%E -7.76%K -67.49%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.59%EV -4.62%E -0.933%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 79.57%EV -8.77%E -7.76%K -67.49%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.43%EV -15.22%E -3.46%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -9.58%E -8.55%K -79.85%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV +5.98%E +1.09%K +1.33%G +0.079% | 7.5% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -9.58%E -8.55%K -79.85%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV +5.98%E +1.09%K +1.33%G +0.079% | 7.5% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -9.58%E -8.55%K -79.85%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV +5.98%E +1.09%K +1.33%G +0.079% | 7.5% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.28%EV -9.58%E -8.55%K -79.85%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.72%EV +0.200%E +0.038%K +0.048%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.57% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.43% | 0.5% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.57% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.43% | 0.5% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.29% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.71% | 0.8% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.22% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.78% | 1.0% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 83.33% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.67% | 1.7% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |
| Novig◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.27% | 5.29I 18.90%NM 17.73% | 6.6% | 2026-04-19 11:20 |