Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Elise Mertens v Leylah Fernandez

2026-10-19 04:00 UTC — WTA Ningbo Open

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Elise Mertens (Local)

Predicción 55.01%1.82momio equitativo
EV -2.08%
Ventaja -1.17%
Kelly -2.66%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.78

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
53.91%55.27%55.06%58.16%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.641.711.711.7860.98%58.44%58.48%56.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Leylah Fernandez (Visitante)

Predicción 44.99%2.22momio equitativo
EV +2.57%
Ventaja +1.13%
Kelly +2.01%
Crecimiento +0.052%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.28

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.84%44.73%44.94%46.09%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.002.112.102.2850.00%47.29%47.62%43.86%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Elise Mertens (Local): 55.01%; Leylah Fernandez (Visitante): 44.99%. Para Leylah Fernandez (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.22. 1 corredor ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.28, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +2.57%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
DraftKings🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -9.78%E -5.96%K -15.28%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV +2.57%E +1.13%K +2.01%G +0.052%4.8%2026-10-18 15:34
Pinnacle🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 56.12%EV -5.38%E -3.13%K -7.47%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.88%EV -1.03%E -0.467%K -0.857%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-18 19:20
Betway🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -9.23%E -5.59%K -14.20%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -1.03%E -0.467%K -0.857%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-18 14:54
BetOnline.ag🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -5.38%E -3.13%K -7.47%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV -1.93%E -0.884%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-18 18:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -5.38%E -3.13%K -7.47%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV -1.93%E -0.884%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-18 18:49
Unibet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -6.48%E -3.81%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -2.83%E -1.31%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-18 14:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -6.48%E -3.81%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -2.83%E -1.31%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-18 14:55
Casumo🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -6.48%E -3.81%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -2.83%E -1.31%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-18 14:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -6.48%E -3.81%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -2.83%E -1.31%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-18 14:54
Grosvenor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -6.48%E -3.81%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -2.83%E -1.31%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-18 14:54
Unibet (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -6.48%E -3.81%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -2.83%E -1.31%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-18 14:55
TABtouch🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -6.48%E -3.81%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -2.83%E -1.31%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-18 14:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -6.48%E -3.81%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -2.83%E -1.31%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-18 14:55
betPARX🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -6.48%E -3.81%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -2.83%E -1.31%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-18 14:54
Bally Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -6.48%E -3.81%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -2.83%E -1.31%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-18 14:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -6.48%E -3.81%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -2.83%E -1.31%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-18 14:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -6.48%E -3.81%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -2.83%E -1.31%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-18 14:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -6.48%E -3.81%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -2.83%E -1.31%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-18 15:14
Virgin Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -6.48%E -3.81%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -2.83%E -1.31%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-18 15:14
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -6.48%E -3.81%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -2.83%E -1.31%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-18 15:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -7.03%E -4.16%K -10.19%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -3.28%E -1.52%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-18 15:40
Coolbet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -4.83%E -2.79%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.63%E -2.18%K -4.13%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-18 15:20
Bet Right🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.38%E -3.13%K -7.47%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.63%E -2.18%K -4.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 14:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -5.93%E -3.47%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -4.63%E -2.18%K -4.13%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-18 15:14
PlayUp🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -6.48%E -3.81%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -4.63%E -2.18%K -4.13%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-18 15:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.12%EV -2.08%E -1.17%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.88%EV -5.53%E -2.63%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-18 16:19
Bovada🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.63%E -1.48%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.53%E -2.63%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-18 14:53
FanDuel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.73%E -2.13%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.53%E -2.63%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-18 14:54
888sport🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.83%E -2.79%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.53%E -2.63%K -5.02%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-18 14:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.83%E -2.79%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.53%E -2.63%K -5.02%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-18 14:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.83%E -2.79%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.53%E -2.63%K -5.02%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-18 14:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.83%E -2.79%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.53%E -2.63%K -5.02%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-18 14:55
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.83%E -2.79%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.53%E -2.63%K -5.02%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-18 15:14
1xBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.83%E -2.79%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.53%E -2.63%K -5.02%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-18 15:44
SportsBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.38%E -3.13%K -7.47%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.53%E -2.63%K -5.02%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-18 14:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.93%E -3.47%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.53%E -2.63%K -5.02%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-18 15:04
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.93%E -3.47%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.53%E -2.63%K -5.02%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-18 15:30
TAB🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.48%E -3.81%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.53%E -2.63%K -5.02%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-18 14:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.48%E -3.81%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.53%E -2.63%K -5.02%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-18 18:25
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.13%E -4.87%K -12.13%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -5.53%E -2.63%K -5.02%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-18 14:58
LeoVegas🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -5.38%E -3.13%K -7.47%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -6.43%E -3.09%K -5.95%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-18 16:04
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -3.73%E -2.13%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -6.88%E -3.32%K -6.43%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-18 18:05
Betsson🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.33%EV -4.28%E -2.46%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.67%EV -6.88%E -3.32%K -6.43%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-18 15:20
NordicBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.33%EV -4.28%E -2.46%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.67%EV -6.88%E -3.32%K -6.43%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-18 15:20
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -4.83%E -2.79%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -7.78%E -3.79%K -7.41%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-18 14:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -5.38%E -3.13%K -7.47%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -7.78%E -3.79%K -7.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-18 16:19
Neds🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -5.38%E -3.13%K -7.47%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -7.78%E -3.79%K -7.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-18 15:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -5.38%E -3.13%K -7.47%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -7.78%E -3.79%K -7.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-18 15:44
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -5.93%E -3.47%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -7.78%E -3.79%K -7.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-18 14:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.48%E -3.81%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.78%E -3.79%K -7.41%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-18 18:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -8.13%E -4.87%K -12.13%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -7.78%E -3.79%K -7.41%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-18 15:14
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -8.13%E -4.87%K -12.13%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -7.78%E -3.79%K -7.41%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-18 15:14
ReBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.26%EV -5.38%E -3.13%K -7.47%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.74%EV -8.23%E -4.03%K -7.91%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-18 16:14
Unibet (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -5.93%E -3.47%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -10.03%E -5.01%K -10.03%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-18 17:34
picklebet_au🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.48%E -3.81%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -10.03%E -5.01%K -10.03%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-18 15:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.75I 57.14%NM 56.58%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.42%1.0%2026-10-18 19:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.75I 57.14%NM 56.58%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.42%1.0%2026-10-18 19:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.75I 57.14%NM 56.58%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.42%1.0%2026-10-18 19:30
Matchbook◎1.75I 57.14%NM 56.58%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.42%1.0%2026-10-18 19:50
ProphetX◎1.75I 57.14%NM 56.58%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.42%1.0%2026-10-18 19:30
Novig◎1.74I 57.47%NM 56.61%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.39%1.5%2026-10-18 19:30