Language:English
Paula Badosa v Aliaksandra Sasnovich
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Paula Badosa (Local)
Prediction 94.00%1.06fair odd
EV +46.63%
Edge +29.89%
Kelly +83.28%
Growth +38.84%
assuming max odds 1.56
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.14%93.90%93.66%98.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.051.021.56100.00%95.47%98.04%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Aliaksandra Sasnovich (Visit)
Prediction 6.00%16.66fair odd
EV +356.28%
Edge +4.69%
Kelly +4.75%
Growth +16.92%
assuming max odds 76.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
1.30%6.10%6.34%37.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.5617.6413.0076.0039.06%5.67%7.69%1.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Paula Badosa (Local): 94.00%; Aliaksandra Sasnovich (Visit): 6.00%. For Aliaksandra Sasnovich (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 16.66. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 76.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +356.28%.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.14%EV +46.63%E +29.89%K +83.28%G +38.84% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 37.86%EV -84.63%E -33.06%K -54.25%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-19 14:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV +4.34%E +3.91%K +39.42%G +1.71% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -59.48%E -8.81%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-19 15:49 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV +4.34%E +3.91%K +39.42%G +1.71% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -59.48%E -8.81%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-19 15:49 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV +4.34%E +3.91%K +39.42%G +1.71% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -62.48%E -10.00%K -11.90%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-19 15:49 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV +4.34%E +3.91%K +39.42%G +1.71% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -63.98%E -10.66%K -12.80%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-19 15:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.03%EV +3.40%E +3.09%K +33.96%G +1.15% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.97%EV -62.48%E -10.00%K -11.90%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-19 15:49 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.03%EV +3.40%E +3.09%K +33.96%G +1.15% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.97%EV -62.48%E -10.00%K -11.90%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-19 15:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 92.81%EV +0.576%E +0.538%K +8.23%G +0.047% | 13.82I 7.24%NM 7.19%EV -17.03%E -1.23%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 0.7% | 2026-03-19 16:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV +0.576%E +0.538%K +8.23%G +0.047% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -48.97%E -5.76%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-19 15:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV +0.576%E +0.538%K +8.23%G +0.047% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -48.97%E -5.76%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-19 15:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV +0.576%E +0.538%K +8.23%G +0.047% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -48.97%E -5.76%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-19 15:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV +0.576%E +0.538%K +8.23%G +0.047% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -51.97%E -6.50%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-19 15:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -2.24%E -2.16%K -56.09%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -36.96%E -3.52%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-19 15:53 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -2.24%E -2.16%K -56.09%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -36.96%E -3.52%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-19 15:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -2.24%E -2.16%K -56.09%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -42.97%E -4.52%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-19 15:56 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 88.62%EV -2.24%E -2.16%K -56.09%G +0.000% | 8.10I 12.35%NM 11.38%EV -51.37%E -6.34%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-19 15:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 94.86%EV -3.18%E -3.09%K -106.12%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.14%EV +14.07%E +0.740%K +0.782%G +0.110% | 2.4% | 2026-03-19 15:57 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -3.18%E -3.09%K -106.12%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV -9.95%E -0.663%K -0.710%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-19 15:57 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -3.18%E -3.09%K -106.12%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -21.95%E -1.69%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-19 16:01 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.22%EV -3.18%E -3.09%K -106.12%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.78%EV -42.97%E -4.52%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-19 15:53 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -4.12%E -4.04%K -206.18%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +2.06%E +0.121%K +0.129%G +0.003% | 3.9% | 2026-03-19 15:58 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.12%E -4.04%K -206.18%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -9.95%E -0.663%K -0.710%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-19 15:57 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.12%E -4.04%K -206.18%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -9.95%E -0.663%K -0.710%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-19 15:52 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -4.12%E -4.04%K -206.18%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV -24.95%E -2.00%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-19 15:57 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -4.12%E -4.04%K -206.18%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -27.96%E -2.33%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-19 15:53 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -4.12%E -4.04%K -206.18%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -27.96%E -2.33%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-19 15:58 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.19%EV -5.06%E -5.01%K -506.37%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.81%EV +20.07%E +1.00%K +1.06%G +0.212% | 4.0% | 2026-03-19 15:57 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.69%EV -5.06%E -5.01%K -506.37%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.31%EV +8.07%E +0.448%K +0.474%G +0.038% | 4.6% | 2026-03-19 15:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.06%E -5.01%K -506.37%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -9.95%E -0.663%K -0.710%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-19 15:57 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.06%E -5.01%K -506.37%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -9.95%E -0.663%K -0.710%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-19 15:56 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.06%E -5.01%K -506.37%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -9.95%E -0.663%K -0.710%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-19 15:56 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.49%EV -5.06%E -5.01%K -506.37%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.51%EV -12.95%E -0.893%K -0.959%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-19 15:58 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.04%EV -5.06%E -5.01%K -506.37%G +0.000% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 6.96%EV -18.95%E -1.40%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-19 15:57 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 91.93%EV -5.06%E -5.01%K -506.37%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.07%EV -30.96%E -2.69%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-19 15:53 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 91.23%EV -5.06%E -5.01%K -506.37%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.77%EV -36.96%E -3.52%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-19 15:51 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 98.70%EV -6.00%E -6.00%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 76.00I 1.32%NM 1.30%EV +356.28%E +4.69%K +4.75%G +16.92% | 1.3% | 2026-03-19 15:57 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 98.53%EV -6.00%E -6.00%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 67.00I 1.49%NM 1.47%EV +302.24%E +4.51%K +4.58%G +13.84% | 1.5% | 2026-03-19 15:58 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 98.08%EV -6.00%E -6.00%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 51.00I 1.96%NM 1.92%EV +206.18%E +4.04%K +4.12%G +8.50% | 2.0% | 2026-03-19 15:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 97.83%EV -6.00%E -6.00%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 45.00I 2.22%NM 2.17%EV +170.16%E +3.78%K +3.87%G +6.58% | 2.2% | 2026-03-19 15:58 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 97.62%EV -6.00%E -6.00%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.38%EV +146.15%E +3.56%K +3.65%G +5.34% | 2.4% | 2026-03-19 15:58 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 97.14%EV -6.00%E -6.00%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.86%EV +104.12%E +3.06%K +3.16%G +3.29% | 2.9% | 2026-03-19 15:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 96.30%EV -6.00%E -6.00%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.70%EV +56.09%E +2.16%K +2.24%G +1.26% | 3.8% | 2026-03-19 15:58 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 95.00%EV -6.00%E -6.00%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.00%EV +14.07%E +0.740%K +0.782%G +0.110% | 5.3% | 2026-03-19 15:58 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.45% | 28.00I 3.57%NM 3.55% | 0.7% | 2026-03-19 16:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.19% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.81% | 0.9% | 2026-03-19 15:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.01I 99.01%NM 98.02% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.98% | 1.0% | 2026-03-19 16:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.04% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.96% | 1.1% | 2026-03-19 15:57 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.01I 99.01%NM 97.34% | 37.00I 2.70%NM 2.66% | 1.7% | 2026-03-19 15:58 |
| Novig◎ | 1.12I 89.29%NM 86.19% | 6.99I 14.31%NM 13.81% | 3.6% | 2026-03-19 15:49 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.00I 100.00%NM 95.65% | 21.98I 4.55%NM 4.35% | 4.5% | 2026-03-19 15:58 |