Language:English
Aryna Sabalenka v Caty McNally
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Aryna Sabalenka (Local)
Prediction 91.02%1.10fair odd
EV -1.70%
Edge -1.57%
Kelly -21.26%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.08
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
86.63%90.73%91.02%93.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.041.041.0899.01%95.86%96.15%92.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Caty McNally (Visit)
Prediction 8.98%11.13fair odd
EV +25.21%
Edge +1.81%
Kelly +1.95%
Growth +0.491%
assuming max odds 13.94
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.00%9.27%8.98%13.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.0010.3210.2513.9414.29%9.69%9.76%7.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aryna Sabalenka (Local): 91.02%; Caty McNally (Visit): 8.98%. For Caty McNally (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.13. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 13.94, corresponding to a positive expected value of +25.21%.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 93.00%EV -4.43%E -4.22%K -88.62%G +0.000% | 13.94I 7.17%NM 7.00%EV +25.21%E +1.81%K +1.95%G +0.491% | 2.4% | 2026-03-22 23:14 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -6.25%E -6.07%K -208.38%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +16.77%E +1.29%K +1.40%G +0.234% | 4.8% | 2026-03-22 23:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -6.25%E -6.07%K -208.38%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +16.77%E +1.29%K +1.40%G +0.234% | 4.8% | 2026-03-22 23:15 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -8.07%E -7.99%K -807.19%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV +16.77%E +1.29%K +1.40%G +0.234% | 6.7% | 2026-03-22 23:01 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.95%EV -4.43%E -4.22%K -88.62%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.05%EV +7.78%E +0.649%K +0.708%G +0.055% | 3.6% | 2026-03-22 23:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.95%EV -4.43%E -4.22%K -88.62%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.05%EV +7.78%E +0.649%K +0.708%G +0.055% | 3.6% | 2026-03-22 23:06 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.93%EV -4.43%E -4.22%K -88.62%G +0.000% | 11.96I 8.36%NM 8.07%EV +7.43%E +0.621%K +0.677%G +0.050% | 3.6% | 2026-03-22 23:08 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.93%EV -4.43%E -4.22%K -88.62%G +0.000% | 11.96I 8.36%NM 8.07%EV +7.43%E +0.621%K +0.677%G +0.050% | 3.6% | 2026-03-22 23:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -5.34%E -5.14%K -133.53%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +3.29%E +0.286%K +0.314%G +0.010% | 4.8% | 2026-03-22 23:14 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.43%E -4.22%K -88.62%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -1.20%E -0.109%K -0.120%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-22 23:14 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.43%E -4.22%K -88.62%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -1.20%E -0.109%K -0.120%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-22 23:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.34%E -5.14%K -133.53%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -1.20%E -0.109%K -0.120%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-22 23:04 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.34%E -5.14%K -133.53%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -1.20%E -0.109%K -0.120%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-22 23:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -6.25%E -6.07%K -208.38%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -1.20%E -0.109%K -0.120%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-22 23:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -6.25%E -6.07%K -208.38%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -1.20%E -0.109%K -0.120%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-22 23:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -6.25%E -6.07%K -208.38%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -1.20%E -0.109%K -0.120%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-22 23:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -6.25%E -6.07%K -208.38%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -1.20%E -0.109%K -0.120%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-22 23:14 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%EV -4.43%E -4.22%K -88.62%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV -5.69%E -0.542%K -0.599%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-22 23:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%EV -4.43%E -4.22%K -88.62%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV -5.69%E -0.542%K -0.599%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-22 23:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%EV -4.43%E -4.22%K -88.62%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV -5.69%E -0.542%K -0.599%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-22 23:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%EV -4.43%E -4.22%K -88.62%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV -5.69%E -0.542%K -0.599%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-22 23:14 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%EV -4.43%E -4.22%K -88.62%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV -5.69%E -0.542%K -0.599%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-22 23:14 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%EV -4.43%E -4.22%K -88.62%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV -5.69%E -0.542%K -0.599%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-22 23:14 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%EV -4.43%E -4.22%K -88.62%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV -5.69%E -0.542%K -0.599%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-22 23:14 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -6.25%E -6.07%K -208.38%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -5.69%E -0.542%K -0.599%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-22 23:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.12%EV -7.16%E -7.02%K -358.08%G +0.000% | 10.47I 9.55%NM 8.88%EV -5.96%E -0.569%K -0.629%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-22 23:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.79%EV -5.34%E -5.14%K -133.53%G +0.000% | 10.25I 9.76%NM 9.21%EV -7.93%E -0.774%K -0.858%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-22 23:04 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 90.42%EV -2.61%E -2.44%K -37.30%G +0.000% | 10.10I 9.90%NM 9.58%EV -9.28%E -0.919%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-22 23:14 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.43%E -4.22%K -88.62%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -10.18%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-22 23:03 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.34%E -5.14%K -133.53%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -10.18%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-22 23:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.34%E -5.14%K -133.53%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -10.18%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-22 23:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.34%E -5.14%K -133.53%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -10.18%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-22 23:07 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 90.74%EV -7.16%E -7.02%K -358.08%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -10.18%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-22 23:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 90.74%EV -7.16%E -7.02%K -358.08%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -10.18%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-22 23:15 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 90.57%EV -7.16%E -7.02%K -358.08%G +0.000% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.43%EV -11.98%E -1.22%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-22 23:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.45%EV -6.25%E -6.07%K -208.38%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.55%EV -12.42%E -1.27%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-22 23:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.45%EV -6.25%E -6.07%K -208.38%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.55%EV -12.42%E -1.27%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-22 23:04 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -3.52%E -3.32%K -58.68%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -14.67%E -1.54%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-22 23:15 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -3.52%E -3.32%K -58.68%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -14.67%E -1.54%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-22 23:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.43%E -4.22%K -88.62%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -14.67%E -1.54%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-22 23:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -5.34%E -5.14%K -133.53%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -14.67%E -1.54%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-22 23:07 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -5.34%E -5.14%K -133.53%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -14.67%E -1.54%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-22 23:14 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -5.34%E -5.14%K -133.53%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -14.67%E -1.54%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-22 23:14 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -5.34%E -5.14%K -133.53%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -14.67%E -1.54%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-22 23:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -5.34%E -5.14%K -133.53%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -14.67%E -1.54%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-22 23:14 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -5.34%E -5.14%K -133.53%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -14.67%E -1.54%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-22 23:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.22%EV -6.25%E -6.07%K -208.38%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.78%EV -14.67%E -1.54%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-22 23:14 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -4.43%E -4.22%K -88.62%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -23.65%E -2.78%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-22 23:14 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -4.43%E -4.22%K -88.62%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -23.65%E -2.78%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-22 23:14 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -2.61%E -2.44%K -37.30%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -28.14%E -3.52%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-22 23:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -3.52%E -3.32%K -58.68%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -28.14%E -3.52%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-22 23:14 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -1.70%E -1.57%K -21.26%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -32.63%E -4.35%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-22 23:14 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -1.70%E -1.57%K -21.26%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -37.13%E -5.30%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-22 23:14 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.05I 95.24%NM 94.77% | 19.01I 5.26%NM 5.23% | 0.5% | 2026-03-22 23:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.74% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.26% | 0.9% | 2026-03-22 23:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.40% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.60% | 1.0% | 2026-03-22 23:15 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.05I 95.24%NM 94.18% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.82% | 1.1% | 2026-03-22 23:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.06% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.94% | 1.7% | 2026-03-22 23:15 |
| Novig◎ | 1.04I 96.15%NM 94.40% | 17.54I 5.70%NM 5.60% | 1.9% | 2026-03-22 23:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.04I 96.15%NM 93.52% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.48% | 2.8% | 2026-03-22 23:15 |