Language:English
Aryna Sabalenka v Ann Li
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Aryna Sabalenka (Local)
Prediction 93.16%1.07fair odd
EV -3.11%
Edge -2.99%
Kelly -77.77%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.04
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
90.30%93.04%92.98%94.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.021.021.04100.00%97.76%98.04%96.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ann Li (Visit)
Prediction 6.84%14.63fair odd
EV +29.91%
Edge +1.57%
Kelly +1.66%
Growth +0.497%
assuming max odds 19.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.09%6.96%7.02%9.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.5013.4613.0019.0010.53%7.43%7.69%5.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aryna Sabalenka (Local): 93.16%; Ann Li (Visit): 6.84%. For Ann Li (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 14.63. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 19.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +29.91%.
Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.91%EV -4.97%E -4.88%K -248.70%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.09%EV +29.91%E +1.57%K +1.66%G +0.497% | 3.3% | 2026-03-21 00:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 94.59%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.41%EV +23.07%E +1.28%K +1.36%G +0.313% | 2.6% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 94.35%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000% | 17.20I 5.81%NM 5.65%EV +17.60%E +1.02%K +1.09%G +0.191% | 2.9% | 2026-03-21 00:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 94.29%EV -3.11%E -2.99%K -77.77%G +0.000% | 17.17I 5.82%NM 5.71%EV +17.39%E +1.01%K +1.08%G +0.187% | 2.0% | 2026-03-20 23:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -4.97%E -4.88%K -248.70%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +16.23%E +0.955%K +1.01%G +0.165% | 3.9% | 2026-03-21 00:24 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -4.97%E -4.88%K -248.70%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +16.23%E +0.955%K +1.01%G +0.165% | 3.9% | 2026-03-20 23:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -4.97%E -4.88%K -248.70%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +16.23%E +0.955%K +1.01%G +0.165% | 3.9% | 2026-03-20 23:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.95%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.05%EV +9.40%E +0.587%K +0.626%G +0.059% | 3.3% | 2026-03-20 23:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -5.91%E -5.85%K -590.56%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV +9.40%E +0.587%K +0.626%G +0.059% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 00:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV +2.56%E +0.171%K +0.183%G +0.005% | 3.8% | 2026-03-20 23:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.91%E -5.85%K -590.56%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +2.56%E +0.171%K +0.183%G +0.005% | 5.7% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.91%E -5.85%K -590.56%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +2.56%E +0.171%K +0.183%G +0.005% | 5.7% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.91%E -5.85%K -590.56%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +2.56%E +0.171%K +0.183%G +0.005% | 5.7% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 93.75%EV -6.84%E -6.84%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.25%EV +2.56%E +0.171%K +0.183%G +0.005% | 6.7% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 93.31%EV -3.11%E -2.99%K -77.77%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.69%EV -0.861%E -0.059%K -0.064%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-21 00:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.49%EV -5.91%E -5.85%K -590.56%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.51%EV -0.861%E -0.059%K -0.064%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-20 23:44 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -4.97%E -4.88%K -248.70%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV -4.28%E -0.306%K -0.329%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.17%EV -4.97%E -4.88%K -248.70%G +0.000% | 13.91I 7.19%NM 6.83%EV -4.89%E -0.352%K -0.379%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 00:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.98%EV -4.97%E -4.88%K -248.70%G +0.000% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.02%EV -7.70%E -0.570%K -0.616%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-21 00:12 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -11.12%E -0.855%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 00:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -11.12%E -0.855%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 23:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -11.12%E -0.855%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 23:45 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -11.12%E -0.855%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 23:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -4.97%E -4.88%K -248.70%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -11.12%E -0.855%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-21 00:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -4.97%E -4.88%K -248.70%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -11.12%E -0.855%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-20 23:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -5.91%E -5.85%K -590.56%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -11.12%E -0.855%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -5.91%E -5.85%K -590.56%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -11.12%E -0.855%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-20 23:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -5.91%E -5.85%K -590.56%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -11.12%E -0.855%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-20 23:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV -14.53%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-20 23:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV -14.53%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-20 23:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV -14.53%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-20 23:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV -14.53%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-20 23:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV -14.53%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-20 23:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV -14.53%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-20 23:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV -14.53%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-20 23:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV -14.53%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-20 23:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -4.97%E -4.88%K -248.70%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV -14.53%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-20 23:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -4.97%E -4.88%K -248.70%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV -14.53%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.52%EV -5.91%E -5.85%K -590.56%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.48%EV -14.53%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.52%EV -5.91%E -5.85%K -590.56%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.48%EV -14.53%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -3.11%E -2.99%K -77.77%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -17.95%E -1.50%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-21 00:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -17.95%E -1.50%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-20 23:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -17.95%E -1.50%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -17.95%E -1.50%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -17.95%E -1.50%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -4.97%E -4.88%K -248.70%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -17.95%E -1.50%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-21 00:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -4.97%E -4.88%K -248.70%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -17.95%E -1.50%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-21 00:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -4.97%E -4.88%K -248.70%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -17.95%E -1.50%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-20 23:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -4.97%E -4.88%K -248.70%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -17.95%E -1.50%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -24.79%E -2.25%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-20 23:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%EV -4.97%E -4.88%K -248.70%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -24.79%E -2.25%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-20 23:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -28.21%E -2.69%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 90.74%EV -4.97%E -4.88%K -248.70%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -31.63%E -3.16%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-20 23:45 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 90.30%EV -4.97%E -4.88%K -248.70%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.70%EV -35.05%E -3.69%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-21 00:22 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.05I 95.24%NM 94.76% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.24% | 0.5% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.05I 95.24%NM 94.34% | 17.50I 5.71%NM 5.66% | 1.0% | 2026-03-21 00:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.05I 95.24%NM 94.34% | 17.50I 5.71%NM 5.66% | 1.0% | 2026-03-21 00:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.05I 95.24%NM 94.34% | 17.50I 5.71%NM 5.66% | 1.0% | 2026-03-21 00:15 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.04I 96.15%NM 94.24% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.76% | 2.0% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 94.98% | 19.49I 5.13%NM 5.02% | 2.2% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Novig◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 94.55% | 17.86I 5.60%NM 5.45% | 2.7% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |