L’École des cotes

Aryna Sabalenka v Ann Li

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-21 00:30 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

54 opérateurs (17 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Aryna Sabalenka (Local)

Prévision 93.16%1.07cote équitable
EV -3.11%
Avantage -2.99%
Kelly -77.77%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.04

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
90.30%93.04%92.98%94.91%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.001.021.021.04100.00%97.76%98.04%96.15%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Ann Li (Visiteur)

Prévision 6.84%14.63cote équitable
EV +29.91%
Avantage +1.57%
Kelly +1.66%
Croissance +0.497%

avec la cote maximale 19.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
5.09%6.96%7.02%9.70%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
9.5013.4613.0019.0010.53%7.43%7.69%5.26%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (54 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
1xBet1.02I 98.04%NM 94.91%EV -4.97%E -4.88%K -248.70%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.09%EV +29.91%E +1.57%K +1.66%G +0.497%3.3%2026-03-21 00:15
Winamax (FR)1.03I 97.09%NM 94.59%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.41%EV +23.07%E +1.28%K +1.36%G +0.313%2.6%2026-03-21 00:25
DraftKings1.03I 97.09%NM 94.35%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000%17.20I 5.81%NM 5.65%EV +17.60%E +1.02%K +1.09%G +0.191%2.9%2026-03-21 00:20
Pinnacle1.04I 96.15%NM 94.29%EV -3.11%E -2.99%K -77.77%G +0.000%17.17I 5.82%NM 5.71%EV +17.39%E +1.01%K +1.08%G +0.187%2.0%2026-03-20 23:45
FanDuel1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -4.97%E -4.88%K -248.70%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +16.23%E +0.955%K +1.01%G +0.165%3.9%2026-03-21 00:24
LowVig.ag1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -4.97%E -4.88%K -248.70%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +16.23%E +0.955%K +1.01%G +0.165%3.9%2026-03-20 23:45
BetOnline.ag1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -4.97%E -4.88%K -248.70%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +16.23%E +0.955%K +1.01%G +0.165%3.9%2026-03-20 23:45
Winamax (DE)1.03I 97.09%NM 93.95%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 6.05%EV +9.40%E +0.587%K +0.626%G +0.059%3.3%2026-03-20 23:45
Bovada1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -5.91%E -5.85%K -590.56%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV +9.40%E +0.587%K +0.626%G +0.059%5.3%2026-03-21 00:20
BoyleSports1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV +2.56%E +0.171%K +0.183%G +0.005%3.8%2026-03-20 23:45
888sport1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.91%E -5.85%K -590.56%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +2.56%E +0.171%K +0.183%G +0.005%5.7%2026-03-21 00:25
888sport (SE)1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.91%E -5.85%K -590.56%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +2.56%E +0.171%K +0.183%G +0.005%5.7%2026-03-21 00:25
Mr Green (SE)1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.91%E -5.85%K -590.56%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +2.56%E +0.171%K +0.183%G +0.005%5.7%2026-03-21 00:25
PMU (FR)1.00I 100.00%NM 93.75%EV -6.84%E -6.84%K +0.000%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.25%EV +2.56%E +0.171%K +0.183%G +0.005%6.7%2026-03-21 00:25
Coolbet1.04I 96.15%NM 93.31%EV -3.11%E -2.99%K -77.77%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.69%EV -0.861%E -0.059%K -0.064%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-21 00:20
Unibet (FR)1.01I 99.01%NM 93.49%EV -5.91%E -5.85%K -590.56%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.51%EV -0.861%E -0.059%K -0.064%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-20 23:44
Unibet1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -4.97%E -4.88%K -248.70%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV -4.28%E -0.306%K -0.329%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-21 00:25
GTbets1.02I 98.04%NM 93.17%EV -4.97%E -4.88%K -248.70%G +0.000%13.91I 7.19%NM 6.83%EV -4.89%E -0.352%K -0.379%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-21 00:20
Marathon Bet1.02I 98.04%NM 92.98%EV -4.97%E -4.88%K -248.70%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.02%EV -7.70%E -0.570%K -0.616%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 00:12
Bet Right1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -11.12%E -0.855%K -0.926%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-21 00:15
Ladbrokes (UK)1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -11.12%E -0.855%K -0.926%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-20 23:45
Coral1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -11.12%E -0.855%K -0.926%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-20 23:45
ReBet1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -11.12%E -0.855%K -0.926%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-20 23:59
Fanatics1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -4.97%E -4.88%K -248.70%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -11.12%E -0.855%K -0.926%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-21 00:15
Betway1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -4.97%E -4.88%K -248.70%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -11.12%E -0.855%K -0.926%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-20 23:44
PointsBet (AU)1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -5.91%E -5.85%K -590.56%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -11.12%E -0.855%K -0.926%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-21 00:25
Neds1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -5.91%E -5.85%K -590.56%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -11.12%E -0.855%K -0.926%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-20 23:45
Ladbrokes (AU)1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -5.91%E -5.85%K -590.56%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -11.12%E -0.855%K -0.926%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-20 23:45
BetRivers1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV -14.53%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-20 23:45
Casumo1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV -14.53%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-20 23:45
Grosvenor1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV -14.53%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-20 23:45
Unibet (NL)1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV -14.53%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-20 23:45
LeoVegas (SE)1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV -14.53%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-20 23:45
Unibet (SE)1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV -14.53%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-20 23:45
betPARX1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV -14.53%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-20 23:45
ATG (SE)1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV -14.53%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-20 23:45
Betr (AU)1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -4.97%E -4.88%K -248.70%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV -14.53%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-20 23:45
TABtouch1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -4.97%E -4.88%K -248.70%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV -14.53%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-21 00:25
LiveScore Bet1.01I 99.01%NM 92.52%EV -5.91%E -5.85%K -590.56%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.48%EV -14.53%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-21 00:25
Bally Bet1.01I 99.01%NM 92.52%EV -5.91%E -5.85%K -590.56%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.48%EV -14.53%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-21 00:25
theScore Bet1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -3.11%E -2.99%K -77.77%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -17.95%E -1.50%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-21 00:15
William Hill1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -17.95%E -1.50%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-20 23:45
LeoVegas1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -17.95%E -1.50%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 00:25
Svenska Spel1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -17.95%E -1.50%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 00:25
Hard Rock Bet1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -17.95%E -1.50%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 00:25
NordicBet1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -4.97%E -4.88%K -248.70%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -17.95%E -1.50%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-21 00:20
Betsson1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -4.97%E -4.88%K -248.70%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -17.95%E -1.50%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-21 00:20
SportsBet1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -4.97%E -4.88%K -248.70%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -17.95%E -1.50%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-20 23:45
Paddy Power1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -4.97%E -4.88%K -248.70%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -17.95%E -1.50%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-21 00:25
PlayUp1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -24.79%E -2.25%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-20 23:45
Virgin Bet1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%EV -4.97%E -4.88%K -248.70%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -24.79%E -2.25%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-20 23:45
BetMGM1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -4.04%E -3.92%K -134.74%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -28.21%E -2.69%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-21 00:25
Everygame1.02I 98.04%NM 90.74%EV -4.97%E -4.88%K -248.70%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -31.63%E -3.16%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-20 23:45
Bet Victor1.02I 98.04%NM 90.30%EV -4.97%E -4.88%K -248.70%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.70%EV -35.05%E -3.69%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-21 00:22
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (7)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook1.05I 95.24%NM 94.76%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.24%0.5%2026-03-21 00:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.05I 95.24%NM 94.34%17.50I 5.71%NM 5.66%1.0%2026-03-21 00:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.05I 95.24%NM 94.34%17.50I 5.71%NM 5.66%1.0%2026-03-21 00:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.05I 95.24%NM 94.34%17.50I 5.71%NM 5.66%1.0%2026-03-21 00:15
ProphetX1.04I 96.15%NM 94.24%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.76%2.0%2026-03-21 00:25
Smarkets1.03I 97.09%NM 94.98%19.49I 5.13%NM 5.02%2.2%2026-03-21 00:25
Novig1.03I 97.09%NM 94.55%17.86I 5.60%NM 5.45%2.7%2026-03-21 00:25