L’École des cotes

Jessica Pegula v Anastasia Potapova

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-11 16:17 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

57 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Jessica Pegula (Local)

Prévision 63.58%1.57cote équitable
EV +2.37%
Avantage +1.47%
Kelly +3.88%
Croissance +0.092%

avec la cote maximale 1.61

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
58.82%63.50%63.43%68.81%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.361.511.511.6173.53%66.32%66.23%62.11%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Anastasia Potapova (Visiteur)

Prévision 36.42%2.75cote équitable
EV +9.26%
Avantage +3.09%
Kelly +4.63%
Croissance +0.428%

avec la cote maximale 3.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
31.19%36.50%36.57%41.18%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.202.512.543.0045.45%39.79%39.37%33.33%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (57 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
FanDuel1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -10.99%E -7.85%K -27.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +9.26%E +3.09%K +4.63%G +0.428%4.8%2026-05-11 16:04
Ladbrokes (UK)1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -13.53%E -9.95%K -37.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV +9.26%E +3.09%K +4.63%G +0.428%6.9%2026-05-11 16:04
BetMGM1.36I 73.53%NM 68.45%EV -13.53%E -9.95%K -37.58%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV +7.44%E +2.52%K +3.81%G +0.284%7.4%2026-05-11 16:04
TAB1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -10.99%E -7.85%K -27.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV +1.97%E +0.705%K +1.10%G +0.022%7.1%2026-05-11 16:05
1xBet1.46I 68.49%NM 65.48%EV -7.17%E -4.91%K -15.59%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.52%EV +0.881%E +0.318%K +0.498%G +0.004%4.6%2026-05-11 15:54
Unibet (UK)1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -6.54%E -4.45%K -13.91%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV +0.152%E +0.055%K +0.087%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-11 16:04
Caesars1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -9.72%E -6.84%K -23.13%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV +0.152%E +0.055%K +0.087%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-11 16:04
Bet Victor1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -10.99%E -7.85%K -27.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV +0.152%E +0.055%K +0.087%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 16:04
LowVig.ag1.51I 66.23%NM 64.22%EV -3.99%E -2.64%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 35.78%EV -1.30%E -0.481%K -0.763%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-11 16:00
BetOnline.ag1.51I 66.23%NM 64.22%EV -3.99%E -2.64%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 35.78%EV -1.30%E -0.481%K -0.763%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-11 16:01
SportsBet1.47I 68.03%NM 64.83%EV -6.54%E -4.45%K -13.91%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 35.17%EV -1.30%E -0.481%K -0.763%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-11 15:59
Unibet1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.54%E -4.45%K -13.91%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -1.67%E -0.618%K -0.982%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-11 16:04
Betsson1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.81%E -5.38%K -17.35%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -1.67%E -0.618%K -0.982%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-11 16:04
Pinnacle1.54I 64.94%NM 63.42%EV -2.09%E -1.35%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 36.58%EV -2.76%E -1.03%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-11 16:05
BetUS1.51I 66.23%NM 63.79%EV -3.99%E -2.64%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.21%EV -3.13%E -1.17%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-11 16:03
Bet Right1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.90%E -3.99%K -12.29%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -3.49%E -1.32%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-11 15:55
Betr (AU)1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -6.54%E -4.45%K -13.91%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -3.49%E -1.32%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-11 15:56
Paddy Power1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -8.44%E -5.86%K -19.19%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -4.58%E -1.75%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-11 16:04
Coral1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -8.44%E -5.86%K -19.19%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -4.58%E -1.75%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-11 16:04
BoyleSports1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -8.44%E -5.86%K -19.19%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -4.58%E -1.75%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-11 16:04
Mr Green (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -8.44%E -5.86%K -19.19%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -4.58%E -1.75%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-11 16:04
Betway1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.63%E -3.09%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.31%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-11 16:04
Tipico (DE)1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -7.81%E -5.38%K -17.35%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -5.31%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-11 16:04
Fliff1.43I 69.93%NM 64.52%EV -9.08%E -6.35%K -21.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.48%EV -5.31%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-11 16:05
Marathon Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 63.24%EV -4.63%E -3.09%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.76%EV -6.04%E -2.34%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-11 15:59
Betclic (FR)1.43I 69.93%NM 64.25%EV -9.08%E -6.35%K -21.11%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 35.75%EV -6.40%E -2.49%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-11 16:04
PlayUp1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.63%E -3.09%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-11 15:55
PointsBet (AU)1.47I 68.03%NM 63.43%EV -6.54%E -4.45%K -13.91%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-11 16:04
DraftKings1.51I 66.23%NM 62.72%EV -3.99%E -2.64%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.28%EV -7.50%E -2.95%K -4.87%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-11 16:05
William Hill1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.72%E -1.78%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-11 15:58
NordicBet1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -3.36%E -2.21%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -10.77%E -4.40%K -7.43%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-11 16:05
Neds1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -4.63%E -3.09%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -10.77%E -4.40%K -7.43%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-11 15:55
Ladbrokes (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -4.63%E -3.09%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -10.77%E -4.40%K -7.43%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-11 15:55
Coolbet1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV +0.458%E +0.290%K +0.790%G +0.004%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -12.59%E -5.25%K -9.00%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-11 16:05
theScore Bet1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -2.09%E -1.35%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -12.59%E -5.25%K -9.00%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-11 16:05
Everygame1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -4.63%E -3.09%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -12.59%E -5.25%K -9.00%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-11 15:54
888sport1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -2.72%E -1.78%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -13.32%E -5.60%K -9.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-11 16:05
888sport (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -2.72%E -1.78%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -13.32%E -5.60%K -9.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-11 16:05
Fanatics1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -2.72%E -1.78%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -14.42%E -6.13%K -10.68%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-11 16:04
Unibet (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV +2.37%E +1.47%K +3.88%G +0.092%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -15.51%E -6.68%K -11.75%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-11 16:05
Unibet (NL)1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV +2.37%E +1.47%K +3.88%G +0.092%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -15.51%E -6.68%K -11.75%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-11 16:04
Casumo1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV +2.37%E +1.47%K +3.88%G +0.092%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -15.51%E -6.68%K -11.75%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-11 16:05
betPARX1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV +2.37%E +1.47%K +3.88%G +0.092%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -15.51%E -6.68%K -11.75%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-11 16:04
ATG (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV +2.37%E +1.47%K +3.88%G +0.092%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -15.51%E -6.68%K -11.75%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-11 16:04
Svenska Spel1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV +2.37%E +1.47%K +3.88%G +0.092%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -15.51%E -6.68%K -11.75%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-11 16:04
Hard Rock Bet1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV +2.37%E +1.47%K +3.88%G +0.092%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -16.24%E -7.06%K -12.49%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-11 16:04
TABtouch1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV +1.73%E +1.08%K +2.88%G +0.050%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -16.24%E -7.06%K -12.49%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-11 16:04
BetRivers1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV +1.73%E +1.08%K +2.88%G +0.050%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -16.24%E -7.06%K -12.49%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-11 16:05
LiveScore Bet1.58I 63.29%NM 59.07%EV +0.458%E +0.290%K +0.790%G +0.004%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.93%EV -16.96%E -7.44%K -13.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-11 16:04
Virgin Bet1.58I 63.29%NM 59.07%EV +0.458%E +0.290%K +0.790%G +0.004%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.93%EV -16.96%E -7.44%K -13.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-11 16:04
Grosvenor1.57I 63.69%NM 59.22%EV -0.178%E -0.113%K -0.312%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.78%EV -16.96%E -7.44%K -13.25%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-11 16:04
Bally Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 59.22%EV -0.178%E -0.113%K -0.312%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.78%EV -16.96%E -7.44%K -13.25%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-11 16:04
LeoVegas1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -0.814%E -0.522%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -18.06%E -8.03%K -14.45%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-11 16:05
LeoVegas (SE)1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -0.814%E -0.522%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -18.06%E -8.03%K -14.45%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-11 16:05
Winamax (DE)1.54I 64.94%NM 59.37%EV -2.09%E -1.35%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -18.06%E -8.03%K -14.45%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-11 16:05
PMU (FR)1.53I 65.36%NM 58.98%EV -2.72%E -1.78%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.02%EV -19.88%E -9.04%K -16.57%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-11 16:04
Winamax (FR)1.50I 66.67%NM 59.46%EV -4.63%E -3.09%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -19.88%E -9.04%K -16.57%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-11 16:05
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52%0.7%2026-05-11 16:04
Smarkets1.52I 65.79%NM 64.98%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.02%1.3%2026-05-11 16:04
Matchbook1.44I 69.44%NM 66.20%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.80%4.9%2026-05-11 16:04
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%7.1%2026-05-11 16:04
Novig1.50I 66.67%NM 61.73%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.27%8.0%2026-05-11 16:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%8.2%2026-05-11 16:04