L’École des cotes

Jasmine Paolini v Leolia Jeanjean

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-07 11:15 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

60 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Jasmine Paolini (Local)

Prévision 85.13%1.17cote équitable
EV +3.86%
Avantage +3.16%
Kelly +17.53%
Croissance +0.676%

avec la cote maximale 1.22

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
76.92%84.42%85.33%88.67%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.061.131.111.2294.34%88.29%90.09%81.97%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Leolia Jeanjean (Visiteur)

Prévision 14.87%6.72cote équitable
EV +29.24%
Avantage +3.36%
Kelly +3.80%
Croissance +1.11%

avec la cote maximale 8.69

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
11.33%15.58%14.67%23.08%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.005.806.008.6925.00%17.24%16.67%11.51%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (60 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
Pinnacle1.11I 90.09%NM 88.67%EV -5.51%E -4.96%K -50.08%G +0.000%8.69I 11.51%NM 11.33%EV +29.24%E +3.36%K +3.80%G +1.11%1.6%2026-05-07 11:15
Betway1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -8.06%E -7.46%K -100.78%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +18.98%E +2.37%K +2.71%G +0.515%5.1%2026-05-07 11:15
Unibet (UK)1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -7.21%E -6.62%K -80.12%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +11.54%E +1.54%K +1.78%G +0.205%5.1%2026-05-07 11:15
Tipico (DE)1.06I 94.34%NM 87.62%EV -9.76%E -9.21%K -162.74%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV +11.54%E +1.54%K +1.78%G +0.205%7.7%2026-05-07 11:15
Betsson1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -7.21%E -6.62%K -80.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV +4.11%E +0.587%K +0.684%G +0.028%6.0%2026-05-07 11:15
NordicBet1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -7.21%E -6.62%K -80.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV +4.11%E +0.587%K +0.684%G +0.028%6.0%2026-05-07 11:15
Ladbrokes (UK)1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -7.21%E -6.62%K -80.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV +4.11%E +0.587%K +0.684%G +0.028%6.0%2026-05-07 11:15
PointsBet (AU)1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -8.06%E -7.46%K -100.78%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +4.11%E +0.587%K +0.684%G +0.028%6.9%2026-05-07 11:15
theScore Bet1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -8.06%E -7.46%K -100.78%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +4.11%E +0.587%K +0.684%G +0.028%6.9%2026-05-07 11:15
Casumo1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -5.51%E -4.96%K -50.08%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV +0.388%E +0.057%K +0.067%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-07 11:15
Unibet (NL)1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -5.51%E -4.96%K -50.08%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV +0.388%E +0.057%K +0.067%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-07 11:15
Unibet (SE)1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -5.51%E -4.96%K -50.08%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV +0.388%E +0.057%K +0.067%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-07 11:15
ATG (SE)1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -5.51%E -4.96%K -50.08%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV +0.388%E +0.057%K +0.067%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-07 11:15
betPARX1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -5.51%E -4.96%K -50.08%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV +0.388%E +0.057%K +0.067%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-07 11:15
Svenska Spel1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -5.51%E -4.96%K -50.08%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV +0.388%E +0.057%K +0.067%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-07 11:15
Hard Rock Bet1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -5.51%E -4.96%K -50.08%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV +0.388%E +0.057%K +0.067%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-07 11:15
BetMGM1.08I 92.59%NM 86.21%EV -8.06%E -7.46%K -100.78%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.79%EV +0.388%E +0.057%K +0.067%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-07 11:15
Winamax (FR)1.06I 94.34%NM 86.43%EV -9.76%E -9.21%K -162.74%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.57%EV +0.388%E +0.057%K +0.067%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-07 11:15
DraftKings1.12I 89.29%NM 85.71%EV -4.66%E -4.16%K -38.81%G +0.000%6.72I 14.88%NM 14.29%EV -0.058%E -0.009%K -0.010%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-07 11:15
Fliff1.07I 93.46%NM 86.23%EV -8.91%E -8.33%K -127.33%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.77%EV -0.356%E -0.053%K -0.062%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-07 11:15
TABtouch1.11I 90.09%NM 85.22%EV -5.51%E -4.96%K -50.08%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%EV -4.82%E -0.753%K -0.892%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-07 11:15
BetRivers1.10I 90.91%NM 85.33%EV -6.36%E -5.78%K -63.60%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.67%EV -4.82%E -0.753%K -0.892%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-07 11:15
Virgin Bet1.10I 90.91%NM 85.33%EV -6.36%E -5.78%K -63.60%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.67%EV -4.82%E -0.753%K -0.892%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-07 11:15
LiveScore Bet1.10I 90.91%NM 85.33%EV -6.36%E -5.78%K -63.60%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.67%EV -4.82%E -0.753%K -0.892%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-07 11:15
Grosvenor1.10I 90.91%NM 85.33%EV -6.36%E -5.78%K -63.60%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.67%EV -4.82%E -0.753%K -0.892%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-07 11:15
Bally Bet1.10I 90.91%NM 85.33%EV -6.36%E -5.78%K -63.60%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.67%EV -4.82%E -0.753%K -0.892%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-07 11:15
LeoVegas1.09I 91.74%NM 85.15%EV -7.21%E -6.62%K -80.12%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.85%EV -7.05%E -1.13%K -1.34%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-07 11:15
Coolbet1.13I 88.50%NM 84.37%EV -3.81%E -3.37%K -29.27%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%EV -9.28%E -1.52%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-07 11:15
FanDuel1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.66%E -4.16%K -38.81%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.77%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-07 11:15
Paddy Power1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.51%E -4.96%K -50.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -10.77%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-07 11:13
Bet Victor1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -6.36%E -5.78%K -63.60%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -10.77%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-07 11:15
PMU (FR)1.07I 93.46%NM 84.87%EV -8.91%E -8.33%K -127.33%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.13%EV -10.77%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-07 11:15
Unibet1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -3.81%E -3.37%K -29.27%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -13.74%E -2.37%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-07 11:15
Winamax (DE)1.10I 90.91%NM 83.82%EV -6.36%E -5.78%K -63.60%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.18%EV -15.23%E -2.67%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-07 11:15
Fanatics1.11I 90.09%NM 83.33%EV -5.51%E -4.96%K -50.08%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 16.67%EV -17.46%E -3.15%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-07 11:15
888sport1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -4.66%E -4.16%K -38.81%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -18.20%E -3.31%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-07 11:14
BoyleSports1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -4.66%E -4.16%K -38.81%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -18.20%E -3.31%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-07 11:15
888sport (SE)1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -4.66%E -4.16%K -38.81%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -18.20%E -3.31%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-07 11:14
Mr Green (SE)1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -4.66%E -4.16%K -38.81%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -18.20%E -3.31%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-07 11:14
LeoVegas (SE)1.11I 90.09%NM 82.68%EV -5.51%E -4.96%K -50.08%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.32%EV -21.18%E -4.00%K -4.92%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-07 11:15
Coral1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -2.10%E -1.83%K -14.02%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -21.92%E -4.18%K -5.16%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-07 11:15
SportsBet1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV +2.15%E +1.79%K +10.77%G +0.232%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -31.59%E -6.87%K -8.77%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-07 11:01
Betclic (FR)1.15I 86.96%NM 80.00%EV -2.10%E -1.83%K -14.02%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -31.59%E -6.87%K -8.77%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-07 11:11
1xBet1.21I 82.64%NM 78.96%EV +3.00%E +2.48%K +14.31%G +0.430%4.54I 22.03%NM 21.04%EV -32.48%E -7.15%K -9.18%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-07 11:00
LowVig.ag1.21I 82.64%NM 78.85%EV +3.00%E +2.48%K +14.31%G +0.430%4.51I 22.17%NM 21.15%EV -32.93%E -7.30%K -9.38%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-07 11:09
BetOnline.ag1.21I 82.64%NM 78.85%EV +3.00%E +2.48%K +14.31%G +0.430%4.51I 22.17%NM 21.15%EV -32.93%E -7.30%K -9.38%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-07 11:09
Bet Right1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV +3.00%E +2.48%K +14.31%G +0.430%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -33.07%E -7.35%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-07 11:01
Betr (AU)1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV +0.451%E +0.382%K +2.50%G +0.011%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -33.07%E -7.35%K -9.45%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-07 11:07
GTbets1.19I 84.03%NM 78.98%EV +1.30%E +1.09%K +6.85%G +0.089%4.47I 22.37%NM 21.02%EV -33.52%E -7.50%K -9.66%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-07 10:58
BetUS1.21I 82.64%NM 78.55%EV +3.00%E +2.48%K +14.31%G +0.430%4.43I 22.57%NM 21.45%EV -34.12%E -7.70%K -9.95%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-07 11:12
Marathon Bet1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV +3.00%E +2.48%K +14.31%G +0.430%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -34.56%E -7.85%K -10.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-07 10:59
ReBet1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV +3.00%E +2.48%K +14.31%G +0.430%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -34.56%E -7.85%K -10.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-07 11:00
TAB1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV +0.451%E +0.382%K +2.50%G +0.011%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -34.56%E -7.85%K -10.17%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-07 11:10
Everygame1.18I 84.75%NM 78.47%EV +0.451%E +0.382%K +2.50%G +0.011%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -36.05%E -8.38%K -10.92%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-07 11:00
William Hill1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV +3.86%E +3.16%K +17.53%G +0.676%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -37.54%E -8.94%K -11.73%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-07 10:58
PlayUp1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV +3.86%E +3.16%K +17.53%G +0.676%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -37.54%E -8.94%K -11.73%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-07 11:07
Caesars1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV +2.15%E +1.79%K +10.77%G +0.232%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -37.54%E -8.94%K -11.73%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-07 10:59
Unibet (FR)1.19I 84.03%NM 77.72%EV +1.30%E +1.09%K +6.85%G +0.089%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.28%EV -38.28%E -9.22%K -12.15%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-07 11:00
Ladbrokes (AU)1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV +2.15%E +1.79%K +10.77%G +0.232%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -40.51%E -10.13%K -13.50%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-07 11:01
Neds1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV +2.15%E +1.79%K +10.77%G +0.232%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -40.51%E -10.13%K -13.50%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-07 11:01
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.16I 86.21%NM 85.78%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.22%0.5%2026-05-07 11:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.17I 85.47%NM 84.94%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.06%0.6%2026-05-07 11:15
Smarkets1.10I 90.91%NM 89.91%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.09%1.1%2026-05-07 11:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.17I 85.47%NM 84.12%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.88%1.6%2026-05-07 11:15
Matchbook1.10I 90.91%NM 88.42%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.58%2.8%2026-05-07 11:15
Novig1.10I 90.91%NM 87.74%7.87I 12.71%NM 12.26%3.6%2026-05-07 11:15