Language:English
Caty McNally v Iga Swiatek
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Caty McNally (Local)
Prediction 21.32%4.69fair odd
EV +70.59%
Edge +8.82%
Kelly +10.08%
Growth +7.12%
assuming max odds 8.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.09%20.41%22.26%26.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.505.164.508.0028.57%19.38%22.22%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Iga Swiatek (Visit)
Prediction 78.68%1.27fair odd
EV +1.49%
Edge +1.16%
Kelly +5.15%
Growth +0.077%
assuming max odds 1.29
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.07%79.59%77.74%87.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.071.171.201.2993.46%85.42%83.33%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Caty McNally (Local): 21.32%; Iga Swiatek (Visit): 78.68%. For Caty McNally (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.69. 24 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +70.59%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.09%EV +70.59%E +8.82%K +10.08%G +7.12% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.91%EV -13.46%E -12.23%K -134.56%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-08 09:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 7.71I 12.97%NM 12.59%EV +64.40%E +8.35%K +9.60%G +6.18% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 87.41%EV -12.67%E -11.41%K -115.17%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-08 09:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.07%EV +54.60%E +7.53%K +8.74%G +4.77% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.93%EV -14.24%E -13.07%K -158.25%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-08 09:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.86%EV +54.60%E +7.53%K +8.74%G +4.77% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.14%EV -15.82%E -14.78%K -225.95%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-08 09:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.86%EV +54.60%E +7.53%K +8.74%G +4.77% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.14%EV -15.82%E -14.78%K -225.95%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-08 09:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.86%EV +54.60%E +7.53%K +8.74%G +4.77% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.14%EV -15.82%E -14.78%K -225.95%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-08 08:58 |
| ReBet🎯 | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.25%EV +53.53%E +7.43%K +8.63%G +4.62% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.75%EV -13.46%E -12.23%K -134.56%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-08 08:58 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 7.03I 14.22%NM 13.53%EV +49.90%E +7.10%K +8.28%G +4.13% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.47%EV -13.46%E -12.23%K -134.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-08 09:02 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +49.27%E +7.04%K +8.21%G +4.05% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -13.46%E -12.23%K -134.56%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-08 09:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +49.27%E +7.04%K +8.21%G +4.05% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -13.46%E -12.23%K -134.56%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-08 08:59 |
| GTbets🎯 | 6.99I 14.31%NM 13.60%EV +49.05%E +7.02%K +8.19%G +4.02% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.40%EV -13.46%E -12.23%K -134.56%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-08 08:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 6.86I 14.58%NM 14.04%EV +46.28%E +6.75%K +7.90%G +3.65% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.96%EV -11.88%E -10.61%K -99.02%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-08 09:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 6.86I 14.58%NM 14.04%EV +46.28%E +6.75%K +7.90%G +3.65% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.96%EV -11.88%E -10.61%K -99.02%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-08 09:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.92%EV +45.00%E +6.62%K +7.76%G +3.49% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.08%EV -13.46%E -12.23%K -134.56%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-08 08:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV +43.93%E +6.51%K +7.64%G +3.36% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -12.67%E -11.41%K -115.17%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-08 09:04 |
| William Hill🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +38.60%E +5.94%K +7.02%G +2.71% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -12.67%E -11.41%K -115.17%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-08 09:04 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV +38.60%E +5.94%K +7.02%G +2.71% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -13.46%E -12.23%K -134.56%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-08 09:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV +38.60%E +5.94%K +7.02%G +2.71% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -13.46%E -12.23%K -134.56%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-08 09:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV +27.94%E +4.66%K +5.59%G +1.56% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -11.88%E -10.61%K -99.02%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-08 09:05 |
| Everygame🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV +27.94%E +4.66%K +5.59%G +1.56% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -13.46%E -12.23%K -134.56%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-08 09:02 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV +23.68%E +4.08%K +4.93%G +1.17% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -10.31%E -9.04%K -73.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 09:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV +11.95%E +2.28%K +2.81%G +0.336% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -10.31%E -9.04%K -73.63%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-08 09:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV +6.62%E +1.32%K +1.65%G +0.109% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -9.52%E -8.28%K -63.48%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-08 09:14 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV +1.29%E +0.271%K +0.343%G +0.004% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.37%EV -8.74%E -7.53%K -54.60%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-08 09:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -4.04%E -0.899%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.80%E -3.97%K -22.86%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-08 09:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -4.04%E -0.899%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.80%E -3.97%K -22.86%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-08 09:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -4.04%E -0.899%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.80%E -3.97%K -22.86%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-08 09:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -4.04%E -0.899%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.80%E -3.97%K -22.86%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-08 09:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -4.04%E -0.899%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.80%E -3.97%K -22.86%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-08 09:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -4.04%E -0.899%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.80%E -3.97%K -22.86%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-08 09:15 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -4.04%E -0.899%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.80%E -3.97%K -22.86%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-08 09:15 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -4.04%E -0.899%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.51%EV -8.74%E -7.53%K -54.60%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-08 09:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -6.18%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -4.80%E -3.97%K -22.86%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-08 09:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -6.18%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -5.59%E -4.66%K -27.94%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-08 09:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -7.24%E -1.66%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -4.80%E -3.97%K -22.86%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-08 09:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -8.31%E -1.93%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.18%EV -5.59%E -4.66%K -27.94%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-08 09:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -8.31%E -1.93%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.18%EV -5.59%E -4.66%K -27.94%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-08 09:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -9.37%E -2.21%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.01%E -3.29%K -18.25%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-08 09:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -9.37%E -2.21%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.01%E -3.29%K -18.25%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-08 09:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -9.37%E -2.21%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.01%E -3.29%K -18.25%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-08 09:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -9.37%E -2.21%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.13%EV -6.38%E -5.36%K -33.55%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-08 09:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -10.44%E -2.49%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -5.59%E -4.66%K -27.94%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-08 09:14 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -10.44%E -2.49%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -5.59%E -4.66%K -27.94%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-08 09:14 |
| Caesars🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -10.44%E -2.49%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -5.59%E -4.66%K -27.94%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-08 09:14 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -10.44%E -2.49%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -5.59%E -4.66%K -27.94%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-08 09:14 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -10.44%E -2.49%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -5.59%E -4.66%K -27.94%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-08 09:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -10.44%E -2.49%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.07%EV -7.16%E -6.07%K -39.79%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-08 09:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -14.71%E -3.68%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -1.65%E -1.32%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 09:14 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -14.71%E -3.68%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.01%E -3.29%K -18.25%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-08 09:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -14.71%E -3.68%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.01%E -3.29%K -18.25%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-08 09:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -14.71%E -3.68%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.01%E -3.29%K -18.25%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-08 09:14 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -14.71%E -3.68%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.01%E -3.29%K -18.25%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-08 09:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -14.71%E -3.68%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -5.59%E -4.66%K -27.94%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-08 09:15 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -14.71%E -3.68%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 77.52%EV -8.74%E -7.53%K -54.60%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-08 09:14 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.91I 25.58%NM 24.37%EV -16.62%E -4.25%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.63%EV -0.868%E -0.689%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-08 09:14 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -20.04%E -5.34%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -1.65%E -1.32%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-08 09:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -20.04%E -5.34%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -4.01%E -3.29%K -18.25%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-08 09:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -21.10%E -5.70%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.20%EV -4.01%E -3.29%K -18.25%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-08 09:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -23.24%E -6.45%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -1.65%E -1.32%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-08 09:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -25.37%E -7.25%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV +1.49%E +1.16%K +5.15%G +0.077% | 6.1% | 2026-05-08 09:14 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 0.8% | 2026-05-08 09:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.57% | 0.9% | 2026-05-08 09:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.26% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 77.74% | 2.1% | 2026-05-08 09:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.52% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.48% | 3.3% | 2026-05-08 09:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.01% | 3.4% | 2026-05-08 09:15 |
| Novig◎ | 4.07I 24.57%NM 23.06% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.94% | 6.5% | 2026-05-08 09:15 |