Language:English
Kayla Day v Iga Swiatek
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Kayla Day (Local)
Prediction 5.67%17.63fair odd
EV +98.54%
Edge +2.82%
Kelly +2.90%
Growth +2.86%
assuming max odds 35.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.80%5.50%5.88%8.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.0017.8416.0035.009.09%5.61%6.25%2.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Iga Swiatek (Visit)
Prediction 94.33%1.06fair odd
EV -2.84%
Edge -2.76%
Kelly -94.76%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.03
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
91.51%94.50%94.12%97.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.011.011.03100.00%98.70%99.01%97.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kayla Day (Local): 5.67%; Iga Swiatek (Visit): 94.33%. For Kayla Day (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 17.63. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 35.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +98.54%.
Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 35.00I 2.86%NM 2.80%EV +98.54%E +2.82%K +2.90%G +2.86% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 97.20%EV -4.73%E -4.68%K -472.92%G +0.000% | 1.9% | 2026-03-07 21:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.40%EV +64.50%E +2.22%K +2.30%G +1.49% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 96.60%EV -3.79%E -3.71%K -189.30%G +0.000% | 1.5% | 2026-03-07 21:29 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.37%EV +64.50%E +2.22%K +2.30%G +1.49% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 96.63%EV -4.73%E -4.68%K -472.92%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-03-07 21:28 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.37%EV +64.50%E +2.22%K +2.30%G +1.49% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 96.63%EV -4.73%E -4.68%K -472.92%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-03-07 21:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.33%EV +64.50%E +2.22%K +2.30%G +1.49% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 96.67%EV -5.67%E -5.67%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-07 21:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 28.00I 3.57%NM 3.48%EV +58.83%E +2.10%K +2.18%G +1.28% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 96.52%EV -4.73%E -4.68%K -472.92%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-03-07 21:29 |
| Coral🎯 | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.74%EV +47.49%E +1.83%K +1.90%G +0.902% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 96.26%EV -4.73%E -4.68%K -472.92%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-07 21:29 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.74%EV +47.49%E +1.83%K +1.90%G +0.902% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 96.26%EV -4.73%E -4.68%K -472.92%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-07 21:19 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.70%EV +47.49%E +1.83%K +1.90%G +0.902% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 96.30%EV -5.67%E -5.67%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-07 21:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 24.12I 4.15%NM 4.10%EV +36.82%E +1.53%K +1.59%G +0.586% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 95.90%EV -2.84%E -2.76%K -94.76%G +0.000% | 1.2% | 2026-03-07 21:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.55%EV +19.12%E +0.911%K +0.956%G +0.183% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 95.45%EV -5.67%E -5.67%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-07 21:29 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV +7.78%E +0.409%K +0.432%G +0.034% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -4.73%E -4.68%K -472.92%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-07 21:29 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.00%EV +7.78%E +0.409%K +0.432%G +0.034% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 95.00%EV -5.67%E -5.67%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 21:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.00%EV +7.78%E +0.409%K +0.432%G +0.034% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 95.00%EV -5.67%E -5.67%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 21:29 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.71%EV -3.57%E -0.210%K -0.223%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 94.29%EV -2.84%E -2.76%K -94.76%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-07 21:29 |
| Casumo🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -3.57%E -0.210%K -0.223%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.73%E -4.68%K -472.92%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-07 21:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -3.57%E -0.210%K -0.223%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.73%E -4.68%K -472.92%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-07 21:24 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -3.57%E -0.210%K -0.223%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.73%E -4.68%K -472.92%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-07 21:24 |
| betPARX🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -3.57%E -0.210%K -0.223%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.73%E -4.68%K -472.92%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-07 21:29 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -3.57%E -0.210%K -0.223%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.73%E -4.68%K -472.92%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-07 21:24 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -3.57%E -0.210%K -0.223%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.73%E -4.68%K -472.92%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-07 21:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -3.57%E -0.210%K -0.223%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.73%E -4.68%K -472.92%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-07 21:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 16.20I 6.17%NM 5.92%EV -8.11%E -0.500%K -0.533%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.08%EV -3.79%E -3.71%K -189.30%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-07 21:28 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.99%EV -9.24%E -0.577%K -0.616%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.01%EV -3.79%E -3.71%K -189.30%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-07 21:14 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.99%EV -9.24%E -0.577%K -0.616%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.01%EV -3.79%E -3.71%K -189.30%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-07 21:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.99%EV -9.24%E -0.577%K -0.616%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.01%EV -3.79%E -3.71%K -189.30%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-07 21:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.99%EV -9.24%E -0.577%K -0.616%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.01%EV -3.79%E -3.71%K -189.30%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-07 21:14 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV -9.24%E -0.577%K -0.616%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -4.73%E -4.68%K -472.92%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 21:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV -9.24%E -0.577%K -0.616%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -4.73%E -4.68%K -472.92%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 21:25 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.88%EV -9.24%E -0.577%K -0.616%G +0.000% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 94.12%EV -5.67%E -5.67%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-07 21:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -14.91%E -0.994%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -3.79%E -3.71%K -189.30%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-07 21:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -14.91%E -0.994%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -3.79%E -3.71%K -189.30%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-07 21:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -14.91%E -0.994%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -3.79%E -3.71%K -189.30%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-07 21:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -14.91%E -0.994%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.73%E -4.68%K -472.92%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-07 21:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -14.91%E -0.994%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.73%E -4.68%K -472.92%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-07 21:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -14.91%E -0.994%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.73%E -4.68%K -472.92%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-07 21:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -14.91%E -0.994%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.73%E -4.68%K -472.92%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-07 21:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -14.91%E -0.994%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.73%E -4.68%K -472.92%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-07 21:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -14.91%E -0.994%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.73%E -4.68%K -472.92%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-07 21:29 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -14.91%E -0.994%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.73%E -4.68%K -472.92%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-07 21:24 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -14.91%E -0.994%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.73%E -4.68%K -472.92%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-07 21:14 |
| Neds🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -14.91%E -0.994%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.73%E -4.68%K -472.92%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-07 21:14 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 14.25I 7.02%NM 6.62%EV -19.17%E -1.35%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.38%EV -4.73%E -4.68%K -472.92%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-07 21:04 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 14.25I 7.02%NM 6.62%EV -19.17%E -1.35%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.38%EV -4.73%E -4.68%K -472.92%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-07 21:14 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 14.16I 7.06%NM 6.78%EV -19.68%E -1.39%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.22%EV -2.84%E -2.76%K -94.76%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-07 21:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 14.16I 7.06%NM 6.78%EV -19.68%E -1.39%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.22%EV -2.84%E -2.76%K -94.76%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-07 21:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV -20.58%E -1.47%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -3.79%E -3.71%K -189.30%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-07 21:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -20.58%E -1.47%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -4.73%E -4.68%K -472.92%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-07 21:04 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -26.26%E -2.02%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -3.79%E -3.71%K -189.30%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-07 21:14 |
| Everygame🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -26.26%E -2.02%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -3.79%E -3.71%K -189.30%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-07 21:12 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -26.26%E -2.02%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -4.73%E -4.68%K -472.92%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-07 21:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -26.26%E -2.02%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -4.73%E -4.68%K -472.92%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-07 21:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -31.93%E -2.66%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -2.84%E -2.76%K -94.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 21:14 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -37.60%E -3.42%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%EV -3.79%E -3.71%K -189.30%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 21:23 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 35.97I 2.78%NM 2.76% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 97.24% | 0.8% | 2026-03-07 21:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.91% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 97.09% | 1.0% | 2026-03-07 21:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.91% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 97.09% | 1.0% | 2026-03-07 21:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 27.00I 3.70%NM 3.64% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 96.36% | 1.7% | 2026-03-07 21:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.26% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 96.74% | 2.3% | 2026-03-07 21:30 |
| Novig◎ | 27.78I 3.60%NM 3.47% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 96.53% | 3.6% | 2026-03-07 21:30 |