Language:English
Katerina Siniakova v Leylah Fernandez
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Katerina Siniakova (Local)
Prediction 47.50%2.11fair odd
EV +2.12%
Edge +0.988%
Kelly +1.85%
Growth +0.039%
assuming max odds 2.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.42%48.06%46.95%54.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.931.932.1557.80%51.73%51.81%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Leylah Fernandez (Visit)
Prediction 52.50%1.90fair odd
EV +10.25%
Edge +4.88%
Kelly +9.32%
Growth +0.955%
assuming max odds 2.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.17%51.94%53.05%56.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.641.841.802.1060.98%54.28%55.56%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Katerina Siniakova (Local): 47.50%; Leylah Fernandez (Visit): 52.50%. For Leylah Fernandez (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.90. 19 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.25%.
Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -17.83%E -10.30%K -24.42%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV +10.25%E +4.88%K +9.32%G +0.955% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 23:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.45%EV -13.55%E -7.45%K -16.52%G +0.000% | 2.09I 47.85%NM 46.55%EV +9.73%E +4.65%K +8.92%G +0.868% | 2.8% | 2026-03-07 23:54 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -16.88%E -9.64%K -22.50%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV +7.63%E +3.72%K +7.26%G +0.554% | 5.9% | 2026-03-07 23:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.14%EV -14.98%E -8.37%K -18.96%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.86%EV +6.58%E +3.24%K +6.38%G +0.420% | 5.1% | 2026-03-07 23:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -13.55%E -7.45%K -16.52%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV +6.05%E +3.00%K +5.93%G +0.359% | 4.5% | 2026-03-07 23:44 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -14.03%E -7.75%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV +6.05%E +3.00%K +5.93%G +0.359% | 4.8% | 2026-03-07 23:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -14.98%E -8.37%K -18.96%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV +6.05%E +3.00%K +5.93%G +0.359% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 23:39 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV -15.93%E -9.00%K -20.68%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV +6.05%E +3.00%K +5.93%G +0.359% | 6.0% | 2026-03-07 23:44 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -13.08%E -7.14%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV +5.00%E +2.50%K +5.00%G +0.250% | 4.6% | 2026-03-07 23:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -13.08%E -7.14%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV +5.00%E +2.50%K +5.00%G +0.250% | 4.6% | 2026-03-07 23:29 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -13.55%E -7.45%K -16.52%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV +5.00%E +2.50%K +5.00%G +0.250% | 4.9% | 2026-03-07 23:47 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -14.50%E -8.06%K -18.13%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV +5.00%E +2.50%K +5.00%G +0.250% | 5.6% | 2026-03-07 22:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -15.45%E -8.68%K -19.81%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV +5.00%E +2.50%K +5.00%G +0.250% | 6.2% | 2026-03-07 23:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -16.88%E -9.64%K -22.50%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV +5.00%E +2.50%K +5.00%G +0.250% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 22:58 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.65%EV -14.98%E -8.37%K -18.96%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.35%EV +4.48%E +2.25%K +4.52%G +0.202% | 6.1% | 2026-03-07 23:47 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%EV -15.93%E -9.00%K -20.68%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.20%EV +3.95%E +2.00%K +4.03%G +0.159% | 7.0% | 2026-03-07 23:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%EV -15.93%E -9.00%K -20.68%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.20%EV +3.95%E +2.00%K +4.03%G +0.159% | 7.0% | 2026-03-07 23:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.53%EV -15.45%E -8.68%K -19.81%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.47%EV +3.43%E +1.74%K +3.53%G +0.121% | 6.9% | 2026-03-07 23:51 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -16.88%E -9.64%K -22.50%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV +2.38%E +1.22%K +2.50%G +0.059% | 8.4% | 2026-03-07 22:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -10.23%E -5.41%K -11.49%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -0.775%E -0.410%K -0.870%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-07 23:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -7.38%E -3.78%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -3.92%E -2.14%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-07 23:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -7.38%E -3.78%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -3.92%E -2.14%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-07 23:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -7.38%E -3.78%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -3.92%E -2.14%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-07 23:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.53%EV -8.33%E -4.31%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.47%EV -4.45%E -2.44%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-07 23:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.40%EV -8.33%E -4.31%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.60%EV -4.97%E -2.75%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 23:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.40%EV -8.33%E -4.31%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.60%EV -4.97%E -2.75%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 23:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.40%EV -8.33%E -4.31%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.60%EV -4.97%E -2.75%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 23:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.40%EV -8.33%E -4.31%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.60%EV -4.97%E -2.75%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 23:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.00%E -2.50%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.50%E -3.06%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-07 23:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.00%E -2.50%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.50%E -3.06%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-07 23:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.28%E -4.86%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.50%E -3.06%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-07 23:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.28%E -4.86%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.50%E -3.06%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-07 23:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.28%E -4.86%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.50%E -3.06%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-07 23:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.38%EV -9.28%E -4.86%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.62%EV -6.02%E -3.37%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-07 23:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -0.250%E -0.119%K -0.228%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -7.07%E -4.00%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-07 23:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -2.63%E -1.28%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -7.07%E -4.00%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 23:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -2.63%E -1.28%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -7.07%E -4.00%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 23:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -2.63%E -1.28%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -7.07%E -4.00%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 23:54 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -2.63%E -1.28%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -7.07%E -4.00%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 23:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.00%E -2.50%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.07%E -4.00%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-07 23:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.20%EV -5.95%E -3.01%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%EV -7.07%E -4.00%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-07 23:54 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.31%EV -6.90%E -3.52%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.69%EV -7.60%E -4.32%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-07 23:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -5.00%E -2.50%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -8.12%E -4.64%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 23:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -0.250%E -0.119%K -0.228%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -9.17%E -5.30%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 23:54 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -2.63%E -1.28%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -9.17%E -5.30%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-07 23:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -5.00%E -2.50%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -9.17%E -5.30%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-07 23:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -5.00%E -2.50%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -9.17%E -5.30%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-07 23:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.68%EV +1.17%E +0.551%K +1.04%G +0.012% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.32%EV -9.70%E -5.64%K -13.47%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-07 23:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.61%EV -6.43%E -3.26%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.39%EV -9.70%E -5.64%K -13.47%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-07 23:54 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -0.250%E -0.119%K -0.228%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -10.22%E -5.98%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-07 23:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV +2.12%E +0.988%K +1.85%G +0.039% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -11.80%E -7.02%K -17.35%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-07 23:54 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.50%EV -5.00%E -2.50%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -12.32%E -7.38%K -18.40%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-07 23:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV +2.12%E +0.988%K +1.85%G +0.039% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -13.37%E -8.11%K -20.58%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 23:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV +2.12%E +0.988%K +1.85%G +0.039% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -13.37%E -8.11%K -20.58%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 23:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -0.250%E -0.119%K -0.228%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -13.37%E -8.11%K -20.58%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-07 23:53 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.35%EV -1.68%E -0.809%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.65%EV -13.37%E -8.11%K -20.58%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-07 23:54 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.05%EV -5.00%E -2.50%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 54.95%EV -13.90%E -8.48%K -21.72%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-03-07 23:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 46.13% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.87% | 0.4% | 2026-03-07 23:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.37% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.63% | 0.5% | 2026-03-07 23:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22% | 0.6% | 2026-03-07 23:54 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.47% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.53% | 1.3% | 2026-03-07 23:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.69% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 54.31% | 2.3% | 2026-03-07 23:54 |
| Novig◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.27% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.73% | 6.8% | 2026-03-07 23:54 |