Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Aryna Sabalenka v Naomi Osaka

Início: 2026-03-10 18:00 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

61 casas de apostas (23 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Aryna Sabalenka (Local)

Previsão 82.15%1.22odd justa
EV -1.42%
Vantagem -1.19%
Kelly -7.12%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.20

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
79.37%82.08%82.43%84.03%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.121.161.161.2089.29%86.26%86.21%83.33%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Naomi Osaka (Visitante)

Previsão 17.85%5.60odd justa
EV +7.12%
Vantagem +1.19%
Kelly +1.42%
Crescimento +0.101%

pressupondo odds máximas de 6.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
15.97%17.92%17.57%20.63%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.505.195.106.0022.22%19.28%19.61%16.67%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Aryna Sabalenka (Local): 82.15%; Naomi Osaka (Visitante): 17.85%. Para Naomi Osaka (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 5.60. 4 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 6.00, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +7.12%.

Odds das casas de apostas (61 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼MargemAtualização
BoyleSports🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -6.35%E -5.57%K -45.38%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV +7.12%E +1.19%K +1.42%G +0.101%4.4%2026-03-10 06:29
Pinnacle🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 83.52%EV -3.89%E -3.32%K -22.88%G +0.000%5.93I 16.86%NM 16.48%EV +5.87%E +0.990%K +1.19%G +0.070%2.3%2026-03-10 17:30
theScore Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -7.17%E -6.35%K -55.19%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV +2.66%E +0.463%K +0.560%G +0.015%5.9%2026-03-10 17:55
Coolbet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 82.97%EV -3.89%E -3.32%K -22.88%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.03%EV +1.77%E +0.310%K +0.376%G +0.007%3.0%2026-03-10 15:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 82.46%EV -3.89%E -3.32%K -22.88%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.54%EV -1.80%E -0.328%K -0.401%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-10 16:00
FanDuel🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -4.71%E -4.06%K -29.44%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -1.80%E -0.328%K -0.401%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-10 17:05
Betway🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.53%E -4.81%K -36.88%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -1.80%E -0.328%K -0.401%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-10 17:00
888sport🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.35%E -5.57%K -45.38%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -1.80%E -0.328%K -0.401%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-09 09:14
William Hill🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.35%E -5.57%K -45.38%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -1.80%E -0.328%K -0.401%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-09 10:44
888sport (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.35%E -5.57%K -45.38%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -1.80%E -0.328%K -0.401%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-09 10:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.35%E -5.57%K -45.38%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -1.80%E -0.328%K -0.401%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-09 10:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -5.53%E -4.81%K -36.88%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -3.59%E -0.665%K -0.816%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-10 17:48
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -5.53%E -4.81%K -36.88%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -3.59%E -0.665%K -0.816%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-10 17:55
Fanatics🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -5.53%E -4.81%K -36.88%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -3.59%E -0.665%K -0.816%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-10 09:52
Unibet (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -4.71%E -4.06%K -29.44%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV -5.37%E -1.01%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-10 17:54
NetBet (FR)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.43%EV -7.17%E -6.35%K -55.19%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.57%EV -5.37%E -1.01%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-10 16:34
Tipico (DE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.55%EV -8.00%E -7.14%K -66.64%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -5.37%E -1.01%K -1.25%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-10 17:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -3.89%E -3.32%K -22.88%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -6.27%E -1.19%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-10 16:00
Bet Right🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -4.71%E -4.06%K -29.44%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -6.27%E -1.19%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-10 17:45
BetMGM🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.53%E -4.81%K -36.88%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -6.27%E -1.19%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-10 06:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.53%E -4.81%K -36.88%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -6.27%E -1.19%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-10 13:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -6.35%E -5.57%K -45.38%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -6.27%E -1.19%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-10 06:40
Coral🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -6.35%E -5.57%K -45.38%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -6.27%E -1.19%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-10 06:39
NordicBet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -3.89%E -3.32%K -22.88%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -7.16%E -1.38%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-10 16:00
Betsson🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -3.89%E -3.32%K -22.88%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -7.16%E -1.38%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-10 16:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -4.71%E -4.06%K -29.44%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -7.16%E -1.38%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-10 17:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -4.71%E -4.06%K -29.44%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -7.16%E -1.38%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-10 16:00
SportsBet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.02%EV -6.35%E -5.57%K -45.38%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -7.16%E -1.38%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-10 12:00
GTbets🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -3.89%E -3.32%K -22.88%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -8.95%E -1.75%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-10 17:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -3.89%E -3.32%K -22.88%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -8.95%E -1.75%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-10 08:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -3.89%E -3.32%K -22.88%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -8.95%E -1.75%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-10 08:54
BetRivers🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -3.89%E -3.32%K -22.88%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -8.95%E -1.75%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-10 08:55
Casumo🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -3.89%E -3.32%K -22.88%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -8.95%E -1.75%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-10 08:55
Grosvenor🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -3.89%E -3.32%K -22.88%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -8.95%E -1.75%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-10 08:54
LeoVegas🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -3.89%E -3.32%K -22.88%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -8.95%E -1.75%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-10 08:54
Bally Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -3.89%E -3.32%K -22.88%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -8.95%E -1.75%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-10 08:54
Svenska Spel🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -3.89%E -3.32%K -22.88%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -8.95%E -1.75%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-10 08:55
betPARX🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -3.89%E -3.32%K -22.88%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -8.95%E -1.75%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-10 08:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -3.89%E -3.32%K -22.88%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -8.95%E -1.75%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-10 08:55
TABtouch🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -3.89%E -3.32%K -22.88%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -8.95%E -1.75%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-10 08:55
Unibet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -3.89%E -3.32%K -22.88%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -8.95%E -1.75%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-10 08:54
ATG (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -3.89%E -3.32%K -22.88%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -8.95%E -1.75%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-10 08:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -3.89%E -3.32%K -22.88%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -8.95%E -1.75%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-10 17:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -3.89%E -3.32%K -22.88%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -8.95%E -1.75%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-10 17:35
Fliff🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.60%EV -5.53%E -4.81%K -36.88%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.40%EV -8.95%E -1.75%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-10 17:55
1xBet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 81.06%EV -3.07%E -2.60%K -17.04%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.94%EV -9.84%E -1.95%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-10 17:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.89%E -3.32%K -22.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -10.73%E -2.15%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-10 08:54
BetUS🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.89%E -3.32%K -22.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -10.73%E -2.15%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-10 17:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -4.71%E -4.06%K -29.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -10.73%E -2.15%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-10 16:05
PlayUp🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -4.71%E -4.06%K -29.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -10.73%E -2.15%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-10 17:55
Everygame🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -4.71%E -4.06%K -29.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -10.73%E -2.15%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-10 17:34
Paddy Power🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -6.35%E -5.57%K -45.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -10.73%E -2.15%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-10 17:00
Neds🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -6.35%E -5.57%K -45.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -10.73%E -2.15%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-10 06:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -6.35%E -5.57%K -45.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -10.73%E -2.15%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-10 06:40
DraftKings🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 80.65%EV -2.25%E -1.89%K -11.82%G +0.000%4.96I 20.16%NM 19.35%EV -11.44%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-10 10:54
Caesars🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -3.89%E -3.32%K -22.88%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -14.30%E -2.98%K -3.76%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-10 17:49
LiveScore Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -4.71%E -4.06%K -29.44%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -14.30%E -2.98%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-10 08:54
Virgin Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -4.71%E -4.06%K -29.44%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -14.30%E -2.98%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-10 08:55
Bovada🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -1.42%E -1.19%K -7.12%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -15.19%E -3.20%K -4.05%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-10 15:25
TAB🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 79.86%EV -4.71%E -4.06%K -29.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -17.87%E -3.89%K -4.96%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-10 17:35
Bet Victor🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -3.89%E -3.32%K -22.88%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -19.66%E -4.37%K -5.62%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-10 17:40
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook1.19I 84.03%NM 83.90%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.10%0.2%2026-03-10 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.19I 84.03%NM 83.45%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55%0.7%2026-03-10 17:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.19I 84.03%NM 83.45%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55%0.7%2026-03-10 17:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.19I 84.03%NM 83.45%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55%0.7%2026-03-10 17:45
Novig1.19I 84.03%NM 83.17%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.83%1.0%2026-03-10 17:50
Smarkets1.17I 85.47%NM 83.68%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.32%2.1%2026-03-10 17:50